Timeform's US Racing handicapper Mark Milligan has three bets at Gulfstream Park this evening.
#3 Never My Love, 1 pt at 4/1 (minimum 3/1) – Gulfstream R1, 17:35
Peachy Queen is sure to be popular in this maiden claimer having competed in much stronger contests on her last two starts. However, she was beaten miles in both those outings and it would be a bit of a leap of faith to back her at the likely prices. The other one at the head of the market, Pretty Rachel, has done little wrong in her four starts to date, finishing runner-up three times, though she is starting to look a tad exposed now.
Consequently, the one to back could well be Never My Love, who flashed a bit of speed against $50k rivals last time and now gets a drop into $25k maiden claiming company. With the aggressive Paco Lopez taking over in the saddle and the addition of blinkers, I’m expecting her to be gunned from the start out of stall 3, and she could well prove hard to catch.
#3 Clever Tale, 1 pt at 11/4 (minimum 9/4) – Gulfstream R2, 18:04
Clever Tale hasn’t cut much ice on her last couple of outings, but those have come away from Florida in higher grades than she contests today. Her most recent outing when beaten a long way in $30k claiming company at Churchill Downs company is best completely ignored, and she is likely to put up a much better showing this time around. Her previous effort (fourth at Hawthorne) actually isn’t too bad in the context of today’s race.
The sort of form that saw Clever Tale win twice at Tampa Bay in the spring, including in a race considerably stronger than this one, would be enough to get the job done today, and I expect her to put up a much better showing than on her most recent start. With Domineeer and Reggae Revolution expected to go forward, there should be enough pace in the field to set up the selection’s late kick.
#1 Papa’s Little Girl, 1pt at 7/2 (minimum 11/4) – Gulfstream R6, 20:06
As with our first selection today, Papa’s Little Girl is a speed horse ridden by Paco Lopez. She didn’t run too badly when second around a two-turn mile at Gulfstream Park West last time but this one-turn mile is much more her bag, indeed all three of her wins have come at this track. With a rail draw and not much other pace signed on in this allowance optional claimer, I expect Lopez be to very aggressive from the second the stalls open.
Princess Betty is favourite at the time of writing, and she should be suited by getting back on the dirt having run on turf last time. Ruben Gracida’s filly is still relatively unexposed and looks the main danger, though may have trouble reeling in Papa’s Little Girl if that one gets away on the front end.
Preview posted at 1330GMT on 17/12/2020
