Andrew Asquith stands in for Matt Brocklebank in this week's Value Bet and has three selections at Beverley and Carlisle.
Value Bet Tips: Saturday May 30
1pt win Rogue Millions in 13:30 Carlisle at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Arapaho Gold in 14:48 Beverley at 5/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Waardah in 15:10 Carlisle at 9/2 (William Hill)
The opening race at Carlisle, the Betway Handicap, has a short-priced favourite in Opportunity, who very much caught the eye on his reappearance at Ascot, and he has some very strong form to his name.
Whether he should be so short in a race of this nature I’m not so sure, though, and the one I’m interested in is ROGUE MILLIONS, who is making his first start for Ed Bethell having been with James Owen last season.
He progressed really well last season, showing up well on his first two starts (form which worked out) before opening his account in a mile and a quarter maiden at Chepstow.
It was interesting that he was left in the Derby at that stage, so he was obviously well thought of and, while he wasn’t pitched in at that level, he proved himself a very well handicapped horse when bolting up over this course and distance next time.
He was head and shoulders ahead of his opposition that day, travelling well in behind, having the gears to get through a gap that appeared and soon moving clear when space arrived, just kept up to his work in the closing stages.
At that point, he looked like one who could rack up a sequence, but he didn’t quite cut it in listed company next time, finishing last of seven but still only beaten one and a half lengths.
Rogue Millions was too free back in handicap company at Ascot on his final start, expending too much energy and having nothing left to give at the business end. That wasn’t his true running, so I’m putting a line through that, and it’s interesting that he’s since been gelded.
He’s joined a yard that do well with new recruits, are amongst the winners, and he just appeals as one who will have even more to offer as a four-year-old, while there should still be milage in his current mark of 96.
Later on the card, Estrange is odds-on for the Betway Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes, understandably so given she does set the standard on form, but I think there’s some value in taking her on with WAARDAH.
I was really impressed with the progress she made last season, appreciating the step up in trip when running away from her rivals in a listed race over a mile and a quarter at Goodwood and then taking the step up into pattern company as well as the significantly longer trip when following up in the Lillie Langtry at Glorious Goodwood.
Waardah beat another smart filly on that occasion and did so despite still showing signs of inexperience, but she found plenty to assert close home. The manner in which she travelled through that race suggested she’d be more than capable back over shorter, but her final start in the Group 1 Champions Fillies Mares Stakes at Ascot wasn’t run to suit.
On that form, she has a bit to find with Estrange, but she wasn’t well positioned in a slowly-run race, failing to settle throughout and not at all given a hard time in the closing stages.
She’s much better than that, and hopefully she’ll get a better pace to aim at here with stablemate Azaniya and Patagonia Girl a couple who like to get on with things, while the stiff finish at Carlisle should also suit her well.
Waardah is just the type to kick on again as a four-year-old, plenty about her physically, and still with few miles on the clock.
At Beverley, the Beverley Two Year Old Trophy EBF Conditions Stakes is full of potential, and I was quite impressed by ARAPAHO GOLD when he made a winning debut at Thirsk earlier this month.
There wasn’t much depth to that race, and the odds-on favourite was disappointing, but it was still hard not to be taken by the ease in which Arapaho Gold won, taking a keen hold early and running green when coming under pressure, but readily moving clear once hitting the front.
He ran around once clear, hanging to his left, but when straightened out he was much too good and hit the line with plenty of running in him. Arapaho Gold will surely come on a bundle for that, and he strikes me as a potentially smart juvenile.
Posted at 16:00 BST on 29/05/26
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