Thanks to in-running betting it is possible to back your opinions after the start of a horse race as well as before the contest. Here are some considerations to take into account.
A suitable time to back a horse in-running might be when a punter thinks a horse has a good chance, but believes the runner will be available at bigger odds in the early stages of the race, or that it's worth seeing how the contest unfolds (e.g. the horse in question has a history of refusing to race or being slowly away).
Timeform’s Pace Maps are a useful tool when trying to predict where a horse might be positioned in in the early stages of any given race. Below is an example for the 2021 Nunthorpe Stakes at York.
The five tiles correspond to the possible Early Position Figures (EPFs) that a horse can record in any given race. EPF 1 (the tile furthest right) indicates the horse is expected to force the pace, while EPF 5 (the tile furthest left) suggests the horse will be held up in rear.
The colour scale represents the probability of the horse recording that EPF; deeper reds are higher probability, while white represents lower probability. The black point is the most likely EPF (the tile with the deepest red). So, with our example you can see that Golden Pal was predicted to record an EPF of 1 and lead – which he duly did.
One factor to consider when deciding whether a horse might be worth backing in-running is the racecourse they are competing at. After all, front-running tactics are more effective at some tracks than others, and vice versa for hold-up tactics.
On the Flat, horses who recorded an EPF of 1 have performed best by strike rate at Epsom (25.62%), Pontefract (25.17%), Ripon (24.36%), Chester (23.35%) and Beverley (22.83%). In National Hunt races, horses who recorded an EPF of 1 have performed best at Sedgefield (25.21%), Kempton (24.71%), Plumpton (24.29%), Doncaster (24.22%) and Ludlow (24.15%).
Strike rates for hold-up horses are generally much lower, but there are still certain tracks where they can be expected to enjoy more success than at others.
On the Flat, horses who recorded an EPF of 5 have performed best at Newcastle (9.17%), Doncaster (9.13%), Yarmouth (8.95%), Ffos Las (8.65%) and Brighton (8.32%). In National Hunt races, horses who recorded an EPF of 5 have performed best at Worcester (7.77%), Ayr (7.60%), Ascot (7.42%), Newton Abbot (7.04%) and Cartmel (6.95%).
If you fancy a hold-up horse, then you’ll find that there are often instances in which you’ll get a better price in-running than you would have done pre-race.
Something to consider when betting in-running is the time delay, as some channels and providers can have time lags of up to three seconds. This puts you at a disadvantage against players who have more up-to-date pictures.
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