Punchestown Saturday preview & tips: Timeform best bets
Adam Houghton outlines the Timeform view on the action on the fifth and final day of the Punchestown Festival.
Punchestown Festival tips: Saturday May 1
Concertista in 3.20 Punchestown
Quilixios in 4.00 Punchestown
Willie Mullins has been utterly dominant at Punchestown this week and looks to hold another strong hand in the Coolmore Kew Gardens Irish EBF Mares Champion Hurdle (15:20), the first of two Grade 1 events on the final day of the meeting.
Mullins is responsible for four of the nine runners as he seeks an eighth success in the race since 2010, including the 2019 runner-up Stormy Ireland, who has returned to her former stable after a spell with Paul Nicholls which included a few tries over fences. She proved at least as good as ever on her first start back in Ireland when winning a Grade 2 contest at Fairyhouse last time, making all the running to beat the smart French Dynamite by a length and a quarter.
Burning Victory also makes her first appearance for the yard since running out a fortunate winner of the Triumph Hurdle at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, but there is no doubt who the leading contender from Closutton is – at least so far as Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings are concerned.
The horse in question is CONCERTISTA, who also won at last year’s Cheltenham Festival – running out an impressive 12-length winner of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – and proved better than ever in defeat when trying to double her Festival tally in the Mares’ Hurdle last time. Sent off the 11/10-on favourite on that occasion, she was beaten just a short head by Black Tears and might well have won had she jumped the last better.
That was a smart performance against a winner who was much improved since finishing only third behind Concertista, in receipt of weight, in a Grade 3 mares’ hurdle at Leopardstown in December. That was Concertista’s second victory of the season after she’d also won a Grade 2 mares’ event at Fairyhouse the previous month, on both occasions beating Minella Melody into second.
The form Concertista showed at Cheltenham is comfortably the best on offer in this line-up, leaving her 4 lb clear of Stormy Ireland on weight-adjusted ratings. Therefore, this looks a good opportunity for her to gain compensation for that narrow defeat, with no reason why she shouldn’t arrive here in peak form on what will be just her fourth start of the campaign.
Next up on the card is an interesting edition of the Ballymore Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (16:00) in which three of the first four from the Triumph Hurdle all meet again.
Zanahiyr was sent off the 11/8 favourite at Cheltenham but fared the worst of the three who reoppose here in fourth, looking rusty on his return from three months on the sidelines. Nevertheless, he'd looked so good in winning his three previous starts over hurdles that it would be folly to underestimate him here, especially with his early-season form stacking up so well.
For example, he produced his best performance on Timeform ratings when winning a Grade 3 juvenile event at Fairyhouse in November, easily landing the spoils by 14 lengths from Saint Sam, who was last seen showing improved form to fill the runner-up spot from a BHA mark of 139 in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival.
Saint Sam will be in opposition again here, along with his Cheltenham conqueror Jeff Kidder, who progressed further to follow up in a Grade 2 juvenile event at Fairyhouse last time.
However, the pair to focus on look to be QUILIXIOS and Haut En Couleurs, who finished first and third respectively in the Triumph. That was just Haut En Couleurs’ second start over hurdles and his first for Willie Mullins, so there is no doubting his scope for more improvement, but preference is for Quilixios, who is fancied to confirm his Cheltenham superiority with another Grade 1 success.
Put simply, Quilixios has been flawless since embarking on a hurdling career, winning all five starts by a cumulative margin of nearly 55 lengths. He started out with Francois Nicolle in France and then made three appearances for Gordon Elliott – including a first top-level win in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown (by five and a half lengths from Saint Sam) – before joining Henry de Bromhead shortly before the Cheltenham Festival.
That Triumph victory was ultimately achieved in straightforward fashion, hitting the front two and quickly asserting in the straight to win by three and a quarter lengths with a bit in hand. Admittedly, there are possible reasons why both Haut En Couleurs and Zanahiyr might prove capable of better than they showed on that occasion, but that has seemingly been factored into the betting, with very little to separate the top three.
That does a disservice to Quilixios, who is the clear leader on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings and possesses the small ‘p’ to denote that he is still open to more improvement. He is strongly fancied to extend his winning sequence to six and can cap a fine season for Rachael Blackmore and Henry de Bromhead as the Irish National Hunt campaign draws to a close.
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