Timeform highlight the top-rated horse, a big improver and a flag of interest in Saturday's Super Sprint at Newbury.
The Timeform top-rated
Vintage Clarets (weight-adjusted rating: 119)
There are two standout contenders in this year’s Super Sprint on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings, namely Vintage Clarets and Chipotle. Chipotle came out on top when the pair met in the Brocklesby at Doncaster in March, the first two-year-old race of the turf season in Britain, and he took his form up another notch when recording his latest win in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot.
That was a useful performance which gives him leading claims here, along with Vintage Clarets, who must be considered a big danger on these terms. Vintage Clarets has also made significant progress since the Brocklesby, winning his next two starts before producing his best effort yet beaten just a length and a half into third in the Coventry Stakes.
That form just about gives him the edge here on weight-adjusted ratings, getting 3 lb from Chipotle, and the excellent record of the Richard Fahey yard in recent editions of the Super Sprint also entitles him to the utmost respect – Fahey will be seeking his fourth success in this race since 2013.
The big improver
Gubbass (106p)
Richard Hannon is another trainer who, just like his father before him, has enjoyed plenty of success in this race, winning three of the last seven renewals. Hannon is set to be mob-handed in this year’s renewal with six runners, the most interesting of which is perhaps Gubbass, who ran to a fairly useful level when making a winning debut at Leicester in April.
He travelled fluently in mid-division and then made good headway to hit the front inside the final furlong, just needing to be kept up to his work to win by a length and three quarters with a bit to spare. Admittedly, the fact we haven’t seen him since then suggests he might have had a problem, but that novice event has worked out reasonably well in his absence, with the third Angel Bleu going on to show useful form.
The least-experienced horse in the field, Gubbas is certainly open to more improvement and the booking of Sean Levey also suggests he has the best chance for his in-form stable (72% of horses running to form).
The Timeform Flag
Showtime Mahomes (101+)
Hot Trainer
Only two Flat trainers – Charlie Appleby (27.57%) and William Haggas (25.00%) – have saddled 100 or more runners in Britain in 2021 and returned a better strike rate than Grant Tuer, who has saddled 28 winners from 117 runners at a strike rate of 23.93%.
Remarkably, Tuer’s previous-best tally of winners in a calendar year was 21 in 2019, a total he has already surpassed with more than five months of 2021 still ahead of us. Tuer saddled nine winners in June alone and he still has the ‘Hot Trainer’ Flag to underline that his yard is in rude health. That must be a positive for the chances of Showtime Mahomes, who showed improved form to get off the mark at the third attempt at Musselburgh last time.
He won by less than a length but looked value for extra given how much trouble he met in the final two furlongs, staying on well after being switched to lead close home. It goes without saying that this will be much tougher, but he is clearly going the right way and shouldn’t be underestimated for a trainer seeking the biggest win of his burgeoning career.
Verdict
The Royal Ascot form that Chipotle and Vintage Clarets bring to the table is by far the best on offer here. Vintage Clarets finished an excellent third in the Coventry and seems sure to mount a bold bid, but preference is for Chipotle, who ran out a decisive winner of the Windsor Castle at the same meeting.
Beaten just once in four starts, when the soft going was a plausible excuse, Chipotle looks a smart two-year-old in the making and is fancied to land this valuable prize before testing the waters in pattern company. Gubbass is the unknown quantity in the line-up and completes the shortlist.
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings
- 119 Vintage Clarets
- 118 Chipotle
- 108 Guilded
- 106p Gubbass
- 104 Delmona
- 104 Sienna Bonnie
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