Timeform preview and big-race guide to Group 1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster

Futurity Trophy Stakes - one mile, two-year-old colts and fillies

The final Group 1 of the British season and, along with the Dewhurst, the most important two-year-old race in the calendar.

Five winners since 2001 have gone on to land the next year's Derby – High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorised, Camelot and Auguste Rodin – while Camelot along with Saxon Warrior, Magna Graecia and Kameko were successful in the 2000 Guineas. The 2013 winner Kingston Hill was runner-up in the Derby before winning the St Leger back at Doncaster.

The race has been dominated by Aidan O'Brien, who has trained the winner no fewer than 12 times, starting with Saratoga Springs in 1997. He has also had the runner-up on eight occasions since 2001 and saddled the first three in a five-runner field in 2025. O'Brien left no fewer than eleven colts in this year's race at the five-day stage, ultimately relying on just three of those in his bid for win number 13.

In terms of their performance at Doncaster, St Nicholas Abbey rates the best of that dozen. He was sent off at evens for the Guineas, but could finish only sixth behind Makfi. He missed the rest of that season due to injury, but returned to show himself a high-class middle-distance performer at four, five and six. He won the Coronation Cup three times, as well as landing a Breeders' Cup Turf and a Sheema Classic.

Best winning performances on Timeform ratings since 2001

• 123 St Nicholas Abbey
• 122 Crowded House
• 121 Ibn Khaldun
• 120 Casamento Kingsbarns Motivator Saxon Warrior
• 119 Auguste Rodin Kameko Kingston Hill

The most highly rated winners of the Futurity haven't necessarily been the best of the bunch later in their career. While five of the 10 highest-rated winners this century subsequently won classics, Crowded House never matched his Futurity figure, though he raced until he was a five-year-old. Ibn Khaldun disappointed in the Guineas on his return at three and wasn't seen again until two unplaced runs in Meydan early in his five-year-old season. Kingsbarns missed a lot of his three-year-old campaign as well, finishing third in the QEII on the second of two starts that autumn. 

Tactics

Of the three declared Ballydoyle runners, both Noble Exhibit and Sergei Diaghalev have made the running on their last two starts, while Giant Sequoia has also been ridden prominently. Given their profiles suggest stamina over speed, a good test at the trip seems very much on the cards.

The Royal Lodge is a difficult race on which to judge potential riding styles, given the field of seven raced in three groups. Burning Up was patiently ridden that day, but had been ridden prominently in his win at Haydock.

Al Hudaiba has generally been settled in touch. The jockeys on other horses will need to be aware of where he is, given his tendency to hang badly right off the bridle.

Trip/Ground/Draw

More than almost any other Group 1 in the calendar, the Futurity is regularly run on testing ground. Timeform has recorded the ground in the last five runnings as Heavy, with the ground in 2020 given as Soft. In 2019 the race had to be moved to the all-weather track at Newcastle due to waterlogging.

This year's renewal looks set to be run on testing ground again. The official going at the time of writing was Soft (Good to Soft in places), though there is more rain forecast.

The most obvious runner for whom Soft ground would be a question would be Al Hudaiba, who has so far raced only on Good going or firmer. His win at Woodbine last time was on officially Firm ground.

None of Aidan O'Brien's trio is proven on testing ground either. Noble Exhibit was even withdrawn from a maiden at Galway due to the unsuitable (Soft) ground, though he won the Beresford on going officially described as Yielding.

Burning Up encountered more testing ground in his second win at Haydock, while Gran Dia's debut win came on Good to Soft. Breacher handled Soft well enough in the Solario at Sandown, though he improved again next time.

The draw is unlikely to be a factor. The trip, where it might be a factor, is best discussed in terms of breeding.

Pedigree

Five of the seven runners declared for the Futurity have already proven themselves at a mile. Of the exceptions, Breacher, a son of Cracksman out of a winner at a mile and a half, looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip.

The other runner yet to try a mile is Giant Sequoia, though on pedigree he too will be extremely well suited by it. He is by Frankel out of the 1¼ mile Listed winner Pink Dogwood, a daughter of Camelot and a sister to the Irish Derby winner Latrobe.

Form

The form shown by even the best of those declared for the Futurity would generally be some way short of that required for a standard running of the race. The majority of winners this century fall in the range 115-119, though two of the four that were rated below 115 have come in the last three years, Ancient Wisdom and Hawk Mountain.

On Timeform adjusted figures after Monday's declaration stage, the top five in the ratings this year were within 3lb of one another and all were trained by Aidan O'Brien: Noble Exhibit, Drumbeat, Haffner, Man's Best Friend and Sergei Diaghilev. The market at that stage didn't really reflect how closely matched these were on form, though the positive signs with regard to Noble Exhibit and Giant Sequoia would appear to be harbingers for their participation.

The Case For The Contenders

Noble Exhibit: impressive in winning a 1m maiden at Punchestown on his second start and followed up in ready fashion in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last month; had the run of the race from the front that day but is clearly very promising.

Burning Up: won his first two starts, then was much improved when runner-up to Haffner in the Royal Lodge; didn't handle the track that well at Newmarket, so likely to have more to offer; has a stout pedigree on dam's side, so a slog likely wouldn't be a problem.

Al Hudaiba: won the Superlative Stakes at the July meeting and a Grade 1 over a mile at Woodbine last time out; has been winning despite looking less than straightforward (hangs badly right); Soft ground is an unknown and he's not stoutly bred, so a slog might not suit either.

Breacher: won a maiden at Salisbury before finishing third in both the Solario and Chamapgne Stakes; was unsuited by the speed test the latter became and will be well served by stepping up to a testing mile; needs to improve again but is likely to.

Giant Sequoia: stable first string in the National Stakes ahead of Haffner, though neither gave their running; had won the Futurity at the Curragh on his previous outing, doing his best work late; very stoutly bred and sure to be well suited by stepping up to 1m for the first time.

Gran Dia: made winning debut at Salisbury at the start of the month; has potential, but that form isn't working out so far and this represents a huge step up in class.

Sergei Diaghalev: ante-post market suggests he's stable third string and might be deployed as a pacemaker, but he has every chance on the form of his second placings in the Champagne (ahead of Breacher) and Autumn Stakes; untried on going softer than Good.

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