We've teamed up with Timeform to preview Saturday's Cesarewitch at Newmarket where David Pipe's runner holds a strong chance.
The Top-Rated
Leoncavallo (Timeform weight-adjusted rating: 120)
Leoncavallo was a useful hurdler for Dr Richard Newland – he notably finished third in the 2018 Galway Hurdle – and he has made an excellent start since joining David Pipe this year. He was beaten by just a nose on his debut for the yard in a mile-and-three-quarter handicap at Sandown in June and then easily brushed aside his rivals in a novice chase at Stratford the following month. That was followed by an easy four-and-three-quarter-length success at Haydock, when he was fitted with blinkers for the first time on the Flat, and a 7 lb rise for that victory is by no means harsh. He proved he stays this far during his time with Charlie Appleby, and he has plenty of form with cut in the ground, so there aren't many negatives.
The Improver
Coltrane (117p)
Coltrane didn’t make it to the course as a two-year-old but he has quickly made up for lost time and arrives here on the back of completing a hat-trick at York. The Melrose is usually one of the most competitive handicaps of the season, contested by upwardly-mobile three-year-olds, but Coltrane won with plenty in hand, forging four lengths clear of Arthurian Fable, who reopposes here. Coltrane has been hit by an 11 lb rise in the weights but this step up in trip to two and a quarter miles might draw out further improvement from a lightly-raced colt who looks such a strong stayer; in fact, his stamina proved decisive in the Melrose as that mile-and-three-quarter contest became a real test due to the strong gallop on easy ground.
The Timeform Flag
Great White Shark (Horse In Focus)
Great White Shark was disappointing in last season’s Cesarewitch when sent off a well-fancied 7/1 shot, only plodding on into a never-threatening tenth. However, she has produced some notable efforts since then, including on both appearances at the Galway Festival in July. Great White Shark was unable to follow up last year’s win in the big amateur riders’ Flat handicap, but she had little chance the way the race developed having been held up off a steady pace. The ground she made up in the straight was eye-catching, however, and she confirmed she was in good heart when winning a handicap hurdle later in the meeting, moving through the contest with zest rarely seen in races for stayers. She handles testing ground well and represents Willie Mullins, who has won the Cesarewitch for the last two seasons.
The Verdict
It is no surprise that Coltrane and Great White Shark are battling for favouritism as both have plenty to recommend them, but Leoncavallo makes even more appeal having made such a pleasing start since joining David Pipe. Leoncavallo justified strong support with ease at Haydock in August and has been put away for this since. He has snuck in towards the bottom of the weights and appeals as being on a fair mark.
Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings
120 Leoncavallo
119 Great White Shark
118 Not So Sleepy
118 Indianapolis
118 Takarengo
118 Lynwood Gold
118§ Gold Arch
