Timeform innovating with new performance scoring system
Viewers of the Sky Bet Sunday Series on ITV4 will have witnessed a new scoring system by Timeform, with scores out of 100 for key performance indicators. We explain more...
Sky Bet Sunday Series
The Sky Bet Sunday Series is open to all trainers who have horses eligible for the race conditions and the remaining Sunday cards comprise:
- May 8 – Hamilton Park
- May 22 – York
- June 5 – Musselburgh
- June 19 – Pontefract
- August 7 – Haydock Park
- August 21 – Sandown Park
To those new to horse racing, the concept of ‘form’ and the vast number of variables often talking in racing circles can be a barrier to enjoying and engaging with the action on the track.
Picking by names, odds or silks is often how new fans will approach racing, potentially finding a race card overwhelming with the amount of information available. Similar feelings might apply to those tuning in and hearing racing jargon explaining why a horse may or may not run well, rather than it being explained in plain language.
Those watching the first in this year’s Sunday Series at Hamilton earlier in the month will have seen Timeform’s Dan Barber sharing a numerical representation of his thoughts on the race. Rather than attempting to dumb down what is always going to be complex puzzle to solve (which for many of us is the allure of the sport), he talked viewers through a summary of the five major variables that usually comprise of a horse’s chance in a race.
Translating data and opinion into simple scores out of 100 (think FIFA or Top Trumps), the eye can then be drawn quickly to the things that matter and be used to help demystify why runners are the price they are.
The primary race talked through using Dan’s analysis was a competitive 3-year-old sprint handicap, with the numbers presented to viewers along with their starting price below.
Aasser was a stand-out on ability and potential, directly drawn from him being comfortably atop the Timeform adjusted ratings and having a ‘p’ – denoting that it was believed there was significantly more to come. In other words, based on the horse’s career to date he scored highest on what he had achieved in his races and how good he potentially might be.
This tied in closely to the market, with a starting price of 13/8 despite the competitiveness of the race conveying the consensus he was the best handicapped horse of the race.
The major negative to his chance however was a relatively low race conditions score. This number is comprised of all the variables that tend to create the highest degree of internal tension to those weighing up how suitable a race might be for a horse. Past performances at similar distances, the course, under the same underfoot conditions may contradict each other. Likewise, the same goes for the draw and projections of early pace.
Looking at past performances of all runners, Dan summarised these variables into another easily digestible score. This is also the area that can take the most time up for even the most engaged racing fan, so benefit from a simple summary of this can help when time is short.
The main reason for Aasser scoring well below many others in the field was his lack of turf experience – all his runs to date had been on all-weather surfaces.
Jockey and Trainer performance
This contrasted with two horses of comparably ability levels that scored very well on this front. Both Lethal Levi and the eventual race winner I’m A Gambler had tasted success over course and distance, so clearly the test they were being set on the day was likely to suit.
They also scored well on last run, as did many of the field – adding to the competitive nature of the field. To come up with this value, Dan assessed how closely to its ability the horse had run on its’ latest start, how long ago this run was and if there were any other notable elements available. Whereas ability, potential and race conditions can provide the big picture, the most recent start of a horse provides crucial context.
The final piece to the puzzle presented is that representing Jockeys and Trainers. By analysing not just strike rates but deeper metrics such as Run to Form and their overall finishing positions, several statistics were brought together. This provides a quick view on the partnership, their record at the course and recent form of the stable.
As Dan mentioned on the broadcast, ability is the most vital score so that is weighted highest when deriving the overall scores, but the others all are vital components in arriving at a final view.
This overall score then allowed the viewer to draw their own conclusions as to whether 13/8 was a fair price about a horse that once race conditions were factored in wasn’t that far ahead of a tightly bunched field.
Look out on Sundays for more of Dan’s thoughts in this style.
Next Off
Most Followed
MOST READ RACING
