Timeform provide an overview of three things to note on Sunday.
Excellent Believe stands out at the weights
Excellent Believe is a useful performer who was placed several times at listed and Group 3 level when with Jack Channon, and he’s shaped well in all three outings for these connections.
The latest of those came in the Balmoral Handicap at Royal Ascot, where he finished midfield, but he was only beaten four lengths, and that was a big performance given he was drawn on the wrong side.
Excellent Believe was comfortably on top of those who raced in the far-side group, just not having that extra gear in the closing stages.
This drop back to seven furlongs will suit him well and, out of handicap company, he stands out at the weights in this field. Indeed, he’s 6lb clear on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, and also has the Horse In Focus Flag, so he’s one to keep on the right side.
An excellent opportunity for Song of The Stars
Song of The Stars was a progressive stayer at a low level on the Flat for James Ferguson this year, winning her last two starts in that sphere before switching to Harry Derham.
She made a very positive start to her career over hurdles over this course and distance last month, too, tight in the betting and beaten just three quarters of a length by a Gordon Elliott-trained improver who had the benefit of experience.
The pair pulled miles clear of the remainder, and that experience is sure not to be lost on Song of The Stars, who represents a burgeoning trainer that has a good record with such types.
This doesn’t look a deep race, either, those with previous form over hurdles not setting a high bar, and the newcomer Red Moon only had similar form to Song of The Stars on the Flat. It looks an excellent opportunity.
Upton’s Mighty Oak ahead of the handicapper
Upton’s Might Oak finished nearer last than first in three outings over hurdles last season, but she looked very inexperienced, and she duly proved a different proposition on her return at Market Rasen at the beginning of October.
Indeed, she was much shorter in the betting than previously, and proved herself to be way ahead of her opening mark making her handicap debut, the step up to two and a half miles very much in her favour.
She showed a nice turn of foot to quicken into the lead at the second-last, then asserted away gradually from the opposition, shaping like one who has much more to offer from this low base.
Upton’s Might Oak is from a family that progresses with age and distance, and is just the sort to rack up a sequence - she is 3lb clear on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings and also has the Timeform 'small p' attached to her rating, denoting she's open to further improvement.
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