Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on Thursday.
Stott an eye-catching booking
The ‘Jockey Uplift’ flag uses a system that measures the performance of riders by the regularity with which they get horses running to form or better, expressed as lbs +/- the average rider. This method, unique to Timeform, is a truer barometer of a jockey’s skill than tallies and strike rates, which only account for wins.
There are four such instances on a quiet Thursday, with perhaps the most notable being the booking of Kevin Stott who takes over from Mark Winn for the first time on Harswell Angel in the 16:37 at Southwell, a 0-80 6f handicap.
It looks a very competitive race for the grade, with four last-time-out winners in the field, but the booking of Stott catches the eye given his +17.50 level stakes profit for the Roger Fell yard. He may have only ridden two winners from 26 rides, but there have been a further eight runner-up finishes and six other top four efforts, so it looks a statement of intent.
Harswell Angel fits the bill of possible big-priced winner; he was possibly fortunate to keep the race when winning at 14/1 on his third start last October, and then finished down the field on heavy ground of the last day of the turf season at Doncaster. With his yard not yet among the winners, he might not be top of many shortlists, but the booking of Stott suggests he could outrun his likely double-figure odds.
That time of year?
It remains to be seen how the wet start to 2026 will affect the latter stages of this National Hunt season, but it’s often useful to look back on previous years to see when some horses tend to peak.
The 15:50 at Chepstow looks a good case study, with many of the nine-strong field having shown a clear pattern.
To Be Sure’s profile becomes more attractive when considering that three of his four wins have come between 24 March and 9 April, and April has traditionally been a strong month for the Williams yard, while Esperti’s best efforts have come much earlier in the season.
February has been the month for Gingerbred’s two wins, but it’s worth noting that his highest-rated performances came in March and April; in contrast, Lightonthewing has won in May but it was a weak race and below the level of his eight other wins. River Voyage and Stellar Stream have both tended to put their best foot forward in February or early-March.
It’s too early to tell with the very lightly-raced Handinmypockets, but the consistent Gold Emery tends to run his race regardless of month; he has run to an adjusted rating of 115-117 on four of his five starts – spread between November and February – this campaign.
In contrast to To Be Sure’s added lustre, the returning Amateur’s appeal has some of the shine taken off it as he has a poor record first time out; watch out for the now-13-year-old at Ffos Las in April or May instead, as his last four wins have come there, winning the same 0-135 in 2021 and 2022, and the same 0-120 in 2023 and 2024.
Memories of Aintree
The closer we get to the Randox Grand National meeting, the easier it is to recall Liverpool heroes of the past. One of my favourites was Al Eile who was a good example of the old ‘horses for courses’ expression, with four of his eight hurdling wins coming at the track including three in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle. “My wife says I love him more than her,” said his trainer John Queally after the third.
Michael Ryan’s colours are still seen on the racecourse and will be sported at Clonmel on Thursday by Gaoth Chuil in the mares’ beginners’ chase at 14:42.
Though most of the attention may be focused on Fancy Girl and Neon Diamond, along with the more experienced Kilbarry Saint, it’s worth noting that Gaoth Chuil’s last two wins over hurdles came under Shane O’Callaghan - including on heavy ground – and the memory of her promising chase debut second at Kilbeggan last Spring is still just about in focus.
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