Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on Saturday.
Three points of interest
More Ebor joy for Ireland?
The Sky Bet Ebor (3.35) has been a happy hunting ground for Irish-trained horses of late, with half of the last 16 renewals going back across the Irish Sea; five of those were won by trainers most commonly associated with National Hunt racing.
That realm is well represented once more, most notably by the Willie Mullins-trained favourite Hipop de Loire, last year’s runner-up who picked up the HIF flag when fourth in listed company last month, and stablemate Ethical Diamond who is 8 lb higher/up in trip following a game win at Royal Ascot when last seen.
London City is bred to win a Guineas rather than an Ebor but appeared to get the trip in a Curragh Group 2 last time, so may prove the pick of the Aidan O’Brien runners despite Ryan Moore choosing to ride last year’s 17th Queenstown, however it’s a different O’Brien runner that catches my eye at the bottom of the weights: son Joseph’s Mr Percy. Though well held in the Galway Hurdle when last seen, he looked a well-handicapped five-year-old when winning the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Handicap at the Curragh in June and an 8 lb rise shouldn’t prevent another big effort considering his improvement since the cheekpieces went on.
Of the major British hopes, French Master is respected given his progressive profile and solid effort in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup last month, and the slight change in headgear looks a positive. However, whilst every winner since 2011 has carried 9st or more – which interestingly is the bottom weight this year in an even stronger renewal - not one has carried more than 9st 9lb.
Perhaps of more interest is HIF Shadow Dance, who looks as if he has had this race pencilled in for a long time. A winner on quick ground at this meeting last year before a gallant third over this sort of trip at Doncaster, the Roger Varian-trained stayer was unsurprisingly well-held on his return over 10f at Goodwood last month when finding plenty of trouble in running. With that run under his belt and now up in trip with Silvestre de Sousa booked (70 winners for the yard at 22% strike-rate), a big run is almost guaranteed.
Class act to reward City of York race upgrade
Followers of Timeform flags will have all eyes on Saturday’s Sky Bet City of York Stakes (3.00) which is being run as a Group 1 for the first time this season, just 10 years after it was run as a listed contest.
This is because the race’s proven Group 1 level performer Rosallion - with no disrespect intended to his Sussex Stakes conqueror Qirat – has the triumvirate of Horse In Focus/Top Rated/Sectional flags following that runner-up effort at Goodwood.
Jockey Sean Levey criticised himself, whilst trainer Richard Hannon absolved him of any blame, however the Timeform comment of ‘left with too much to do’ gives an indication that the race didn’t turn out as connections would have hoped.
Assuming all is well after a recent minor injury which led to an aborted trip to France, the main question mark here is the drop in trip to seven furlongs, the now-four-year-old Blue Point colt having raced solely over a mile since landing the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on his final start as a two-year-old.
He’s classy, and has a good turn of foot, but it has – of late at least – been most evident when granted a strong pace to chase over a mile.
In his favour is the Timeform pace prediction of ‘very strong’ thanks to the presence of Quinault, Maranoa Charlie and Exactly. This is a scenario that would also suit fellow HIF Never So Brave and Lennox Stakes runner-up Lake Forest, but there’s no doubt that Rosallion has the class edge over both; this season’s elusive Group 1 win awaits.
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Opening Strensall Stakes a good stepping stone
The Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (3.00) has also provided a good platform for handicappers and listed performers, with just two of the last 12 winners of the Group 3 contest already having a Group win to their name.
Skukuza is yet to run at that level but has looked a much improved horse this term, his Curragh wins suggesting that a race like this should be within his range (he now has an official BHA rating of 113; nine of the last 12 winners had a rating of 110 or higher).
Bullet Point will surely be in that bracket soon, the four-year-old having won a very competitive mile handicap here on Thursday for which he will get a hefty rise. This is obviously a very quick turnaround, but his trainer William Haggas – born and bred in Yorkshire – does very well at this meeting and currently has the ‘Hot Trainer’ flag thanks to a run of form that has included two wins on the Knavesmire this week as well as an evening winner at Kempton (by 12 lengths!).
Supporters of exciting three-year-olds Gladius and Bowmark (and to a lesser extent King of Cities) will be encouraged by that age group winning two of the last three renewals, though both Alflaila (2022) and See The Fire (2024) were both much more battle hardened; 11 of the last 12 winners had had at least five previous runs over 8-10 furlongs to their name.
That stat brings King’s Gambit firmly into the equation, but he has started to look a bit frustrating and – with just 2 lb separating Bullet Point, King’s Gambit and Skukuza on Timeform’s weight-adjusted-ratings, preference at the prices is for the last-named.
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