Tony McFadden provides an overview of the key things to note on Saturday.
Three points of interest
Kempton form suggests Shameful is well treated
On the face of it, Shameful perhaps failed to meet expectations when only runner-up on his reappearance at Kempton given he was sent off the 8/11 favourite and had been entered in the 2000 Guineas and Irish 2000 Guineas.
He may have been no match for the five-length winner, Marvelman, but subsequent events have shown Shameful faced a tough task trying to carry a 7 lb penalty for his Newbury maiden win on his only start as a juvenile.
Marvelman came out and ran a cracker in a listed race at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago when finding only the unbeaten and exciting Cosmic Year too strong, finishing three lengths clear of the third. The Kempton form was also given a boost by the third home, Man of La Mancha, who had finished four and three-quarter lengths behind Shameful in receipt of 7 lb but comfortably won on his handicap debut at Windsor last week.
Shameful's effort at Kempton, therefore, looks better now than it did at the time and an opening BHA mark of 83 could underestimate him on his first start since being gelded. He is an eye-catching 6 lb clear on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings in the mile handicap (16:55) at Newbury.
Will Europe's best emerge from the Lockinge?
The last two winners of the Lockinge Stakes, Modern Games and Audience, registered Timeform performance ratings of 121, but it would be a surprise if such a level were good enough to prevail on Saturday as it looks a much stronger renewal of Newbury's feature race of the season, which is also the first Group 1 of the campaign for older horses in Britain or Ireland.
Six of the nine-runner field have a Timeform master rating of 121 or higher, while Fallen Angel receives a sex allowance so can effectively have 3 lb added to her rating of 120.
Such is the level of competition, it's not implausible that the winner could produce a top-class performance to establish themselves as the best in Europe. That distinction is currently held by Calandagan with a Timeform rating of 129, but Rosallion (126), in particular, doesn't have loads to find to reach that level and retains an element of untapped potential after his three-year-old campaign had been curtailed by injury.
Rosallion wasn't seen out after Royal Ascot but he'd already achieved plenty as he was runner-up to Notable Speech in the 2000 Guineas and then had that rival well behind when landing the St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. In between those performances, Rosallion had surged home to win the Irish 2000 Guineas despite conceding first run.
He narrowly heads Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings on his return to action, coming out 1 lb in advance of Notable Speech and Tamfana.
London Gold Cup usually a race to follow
Few handicaps have such an illustrious history as the London Gold Cup (14:00) which has routinely been used as a stepping stone to Group company and has even been won by subsequent top-level winners Al Kazeem, Cannock Chase and Bay Bridge.
It is a race Roger Charlton liked to target with a talented sort as, in addition to Al Kazeem, he also won the race with subsequent Group 2 winners Time Test and Headman, plus Imperial Aviator, in the 2010s.
Roger Charlton's son, Harry, added to the yard's good record in the race with King's Gambit, who beat subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Poniros last year, and has an interesting contender this time around with Wave Rider. Wave Rider showed ability when finishing in the frame in good-quality novices on both starts last season and was only narrowly denied when staying on strongly on his reappearance at Wolverhampton last month. He has only raced at around seven furlongs but has plenty of stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree so is a likely improver as he steps up in trip on his handicap debut.
Wave Rider is one of five horses in here with the Timeform 'small p' to highlight improvement is expected and it's worth noting that seven of the last ten editions have been won by a horse with the Timeform 'small p', including the last four renewals.
The other runners with a 'small p' this year are Genealogy, Ernst Bloefeld, Circus of Rome and Asmen Warrior.
Circus of Rome was only sixth on his handicap debut in a strong-looking race at Sandown last time, but he wasn't seen to best effect as he was denied a run inside the final couple of furlongs before keeping on. He had looked fairly treated going into that race based on what he had shown when only beaten a short-head in a Lingfield maiden in December and he heads Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the London Gold Cup by 2 lb.
Potential for improvement has been more important than form in the book when it has come to finding winners of the London Gold Cup, but Circus of Rome is by no means fully exposed and shouldn't be underestimated. He's been given the nod by Timeform's analyst in the verdicts that appear on Sporting Life racecards.
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