Nic Doggett provides an overview of the key things to note on Monday.
Interesting jockey bookings at Newcastle
Akin to the differences between the 1971 David Bowie single Changes, and the song of the same name by Black Sabbath that was released a year later, there are several types of jockey changes when it comes to horse racing. Like the Bowie song, one could be about reinvention, or the breakdown of relationships a la Black Sabbath, but there’s a third one too. Luckily, we’ve got the Timeform ‘Jockey Uplift’ flag to help alert us to when an improved effort might be expected from a horse.
At Timeform we measure the performance of riders using an identical methodology to that by which we assess trainers. Timeform jockey ratings compare the riding population by the regularity with which they get horses running to form or better, expressed as lbs +/- the average rider.
There are two potential improvers in Newcastle’s Download The At The Races App Handicap (17:30).
The in-form Callum Rodriguez, who has a record of one win, two seconds, two thirds and two fourths from nine rides for Jedd O’Keeffe, takes over on Fuzeyya. The Ulysses filly may have found the jump up to a mile and half against her on her handicap debut/seasonal return and is capable of better; her pedigree suggests that she won't come into her own until granted an even stiffer test of stamina further down the line but this track often suits stout stayers
Project Kinsman who was sent off at 125/1 (twice) and 200/1 on her three starts over six/seven furlongs in novice/maiden company but now steps up in trip for her handicap debut with Luke Morris booked for the ride. Her mark of 50 could prove to be a lenient one given her sales price/pedigree (sire Maxfield and dam Project Whiskey showed their best form over an extended mile/nine furlongs).
Dual-purpose trainer also sends one horse to Hexham
The aforementioned Jedd O’Keeffe is already off the mark for the Flat season, but the North Yorkshire-based dual-purpose trainer will be hoping to add to his jumps tally with Hurlyburly in the carpetgallop.co.uk Where Performance Begins "National Hunt" Novices' Hurdle (14:00) at Hexham.
Although a fairly cheap purchase (£17,000) as a three-year-old, the Shirocco gelding has already shown that there is plenty to work with. He ran to a similar level on his first two starts, at Market Rasen and Wetherby, but then shaped very well when seven lengths second to the Dan Skelton-trained favourite Turbocharged in a conditional/amateurs riders bumper at Haydock last time, going with zest and just tiring late on.
This half-brother to the fairly useful hurdler/useful chaser Arvico Bleu – whose wins included over this trip at nearby Carlisle - looks to be starting off at the right distance now making his hurdling debut and, though facing several penalised rivals who have been tried at a higher level, he is one to keep an eye on.
Opening novice at Leicester looks a race to note
As you might expect, on a Monday after the excitement of the Grand National meeting, the fayre on offer is not startling, however there is an interesting novice contest at Leicester.
The British Stallion Studs "Confined" Novice Stakes (13:52), which is restricted to horses that have not run more than three times, features several exciting prospects including the Godolphin runner Crimson Rose who hasn't been seen since her Newmarket maiden win last July but appeals as one who can make up for lost time.
Nevasca Cinza (sold from Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore for 100,000 guineas in October) also has the form to figure and his new trainer James Fanshawe has an excellent record with his three-year-olds at the track (6/16 with a level stakes profit of +20.24).
However, as I explained in my look at the 2000 Guineas market which is now topped by Bow Echo, it's a big few weeks for the executors of the late Sheikh Mohammed Obaid and they have two other promising three-year-olds here.
Westport, a Blue Point gelding whose sales price rose markedly as a yearling and who created a good impression when scoring on his all-weather debut last month, is joined by the very well-bred newcomer Railwayman. The last-named is a half-brother to three winners, including the high-class Oxted, and cost 420,000 as a yearling. Though fitted with a tongue-tie for debut, he would also firmly enter the reckoning if the betting suggests he's fancied for his very canny stable.
You never know, he might be the next Baaeed who made a winning debut here in 2021. Hopefully he’s not like Leicester’s second most famous debutant Flockton Grey, the ‘two-year-old' who was actually the three-year-old Good Hand. I’m not sure racing could cope with another one of those at this point.
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