Timeform: Breeders' Cup Turf preview | Tarnawa's time to shine

The Top-Rated

Magical (Timeform weight-adjusted rating 144)

Magical has been operating at the highest level for a while, but she has been better than ever this year.

After a couple of straightforward successes in the Pretty Polly Stakes and the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, Magical was unable to overhaul the powerful front-runner Ghaiyyath in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York, but she produced the best performance of her career to turn the tables in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown in September.

Magical is known for her splendidly tough attitude and she showed all her battling qualities to edge past Ghayyaith in the Irish Champion Stakes, gaining a seventh Group 1 success, a remarkable haul that is testament to her consistency.

She was slightly below her best in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last time, but things didn’t play out perfectly – it paid to race more prominently – and her overall profile suggests she is the type of mare who will bounce back to form. Magical was runner-up to Enable in this race two years ago and deservedly heads the market to go one better.

The Improver

Tarnawa (139)

Tarnawa came up short when tried in Group 1 company last season but she has returned as an improved model this term and impressed when making the top-level breakthrough in the Prix Vermeille. She made a pleasing comeback in the Give Thanks Stakes at Cork, winning that contest for the second year in succession, and then showed improved form to land the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp, where she displayed an impressive turn of foot to lead entering the final furlong.

Tarnawa returned to Longchamp to complete the hat-trick in the Prix de l’Opera last month, doing well under the circumstances given she was held up off a modest pace on her return to a mile and a quarter. The turn of foot she possesses will prove to be asset around this sharp track and, given her upwardly-mobile profile, it would not be a surprise if she had an even bigger effort in her locker.

The Timeform Flag

Mehdaayih (Horse In Focus)

Tarnawa's late burst at Longchamp last time caught our reporters eye, while Mehdaayih was also recorded as a Horse In Focus for her most recent effort.

Mehdaayih was only fourth in the Fillies' And Mares' Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day, strictly running below form based on a strict interpretation of the figures. However, she shaped much better than the result would suggest in a race that was run at a strong gallop on soft ground so therefore posed a stern test of stamina.

Mehdaayih made an eye-catching move on the turn for home and looked set to finish second at worst, but she was unable to sustain the effort on what was her first start for four months. This race will not provide such a searching test of stamina and it would be no surprise to see Mehdaayih give a good account at a big price, for all she would need to improve on even the pick of her efforts from last year.

The Verdict

Channel Maker looks arguably the pick of the American contingent, but this race has traditionally been a happy hunting ground for the European raiders. Magical can be relied upon to give a good account and deserves to be favorite but TARNAWA has done nothing but improve this term and her sharp turn of foot can make the difference. She is taken to provide Dermot Weld with his first Breeders’ Cup success.

Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings:

144 Magical
142 Lord North
139 Tarnawa
136 Channel Maker
136 United

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