Timeform analysis of Dublin Racing Festival

Hurdles

Six Grade 1 winners for Willie Mullins doesn’t entirely tell the story of a Dublin Racing Festival where some of the stable’s hot favourites were turned over by lesser-fancied stablemates but things went largely to the script in the Irish Champion Hurdle, even if many were hoping Honeysuckle could bounce back from a first career defeat to win the race for the fourth year running.

Instead, it was State Man (remains 166p) who cemented his position as Ireland’s top two-mile hurdler with a fourth consecutive Grade 1 success. In a race lacking an obvious pace-setter, Paul Townend dictated on the favourite who didn’t need to better previous form in coming home nearly five lengths clear of Honeysuckle (157 from 165).

Troubling Constitution Hill will be a different matter, but State Man goes to the Champion Hurdle with the potential to improve further, while if Honeysuckle – clearly not the force of old - runs at the Festival at all, it will be in the Mares’ Hurdle which she won in 2020.

Mullins had the first two in the betting in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, with Lossiemouth (remains 141p) having given weight and an impressive beating to Gala Marceau (140p from 137p) in the Grade 2 juvenile here in December.

That form between the two fillies was surprisingly turned round this time, though Lossiemouth has to go down as an unlucky loser after meeting significant interference just as the race was hotting up.

Shuffled back to the rear leaving the back straight and then forced wide as she tried to recover, she pulled clear of the rest but couldn’t peg back Gala Marceau who saw things out well considering how hard she had pulled. All things being equal, Lossiemouth remains the one to beat in the Triumph.

The defeat of the unbeaten favourite Facile Vega (152+ from 152P) was another shock in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, another race which saw form between a couple of Mullins stablemates turned upside down from last time. While the trainer put Facile Vega’s tame effort – he dropped away quickly to come last of the five finishers – to having gone off too hard, the way he was brushed aside in the straight suggests there was something more to it than that.

That left Il Etait Temps (151 from 145) – four lengths behind Facile Vega in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle in December – to run out an emphatic winner by nine and a half lengths after sealing matters with a smart turn of foot.

The first five home – none of them trained by Mullins, incidentally – finished well grouped in the meeting’s other Grade 1 novice hurdle, over two and three quarter miles, indicative of just useful form, but there was a lot to like about Barry Connell’s winner Good Land (140p from 139p). Stepping up in grade from a maiden win, he looked very professional in beating Absolute Notions (138 from 130) by a length and a half, jumping well and going with enthusiasm, though quite a bit more improvement will be needed to follow up in his Cheltenham target the Ballymore.

The other hurdling performance of note from the weekend came from another Mullins winner, Gaelic Warrior (152p from 147p), who landed the odd against sixteen rivals in the Liffey Handicap Hurdle. Backed as if defeat was out of the question (as when touched off in last season’s Fred Winter at Cheltenham), he completed a hat-trick this season returned to handicap company and, still unexposed, would be a leading contender if taking in one of the Grade 1 novices at Cheltenham.

Chases

Galopin des Champs (178p from 175p) continues to do all that is asked of him over fences and, settling well on a first try over three miles over fences in the Irish Gold Cup, his performance went a long way to alleviating any fears about the suitability of the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip given his strength at the finish as he pulled away from the placed horses on the run-in.

The bare form of his eight-length beating of stablemate Stattler (166 from 166p) didn’t require Galopin des Champs to improve any further, though he’s been rated value for extra in cementing his place at the head of the betting for Cheltenham.

The rallying Stattler ran right up to his best and the extra two furlongs and stiff finish at Cheltenham are sure to play to his strengths. Fury Road (165 from 158) was only three quarters of a length behind the runner-up after carrying the winner to his left when joined in the lead jumping the last and he’ll go to Cheltenham, presumably for the Ryanair Chase, on the back of a career-best effort. The Big Dog (160 from 155) was the other to improve his rating despite failing to complete, likely to have finished no worse than fourth but for falling two out when in a narrow lead and yet to be asked for his effort.

Mullins maintained his 100% record in the Dublin Chase but not with hot favourite Blue Lord (167 from 171) who met with defeat for only the second time over fences at the hands of stablemate Gentleman de Mee (166 from 158+) who had finished more than forty lengths behind him here at Christmas and a well-held fourth to Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek prior to that.

But Gentleman de Mee jumped better on the whole than last time before quickening clear approaching the last to win by seven lengths. That’s much more in keeping with the promise he’d shown at Aintree last spring when beating Edwardstone in the Maghull Novices’, and he has to rate a serious player in an increasingly open-looking Queen Mother Champion Chase.

There were high-class performances from the winners of both Grade 1 novice chases at the Dublin Racing Festival. A cracking Irish Arkle was won by one of five trained by Mullins, with El Fabiolo (165p from 152p) following up a wide-margin debut success over fences with a largely better round of jumping bar a notable mistake four out.

El Fabiolo took a strong hold but forged clear to come home ten lengths clear of the rallying Banbridge (155 from 155p) and a rematch with Jonbon (rated 163p), the only horse to have beaten him so far, over hurdles at Aintree last season, promises to be something to savour in the Arkle at Cheltenham.

El Fabiolo moved above Mighty Potter (remains 162p) in Timeform’s novice chase ratings, as Gordon Elliott’s Drinmore winner didn’t need to improve on that form last time out to follow up in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase. Mighty Potter continues to look an exciting prospect though, a worthy favourite for the Turners Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham, as he stormed clear to beat Adamantly Chosen (152 from 151) by eight and a half lengths.

The runner-up was the outsider of Mullins’ five runners but the pick of them going forward remains third-placed Gaillard du Mesnil (remains 158) who had pushed Mighty Potter closer in the Drinmore under more testing conditions and, as a proven stayer, the National Hunt Novices’ Chase looks his best winning opportunity at Cheltenham.

Away from Leopardstown, Elliott also won the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown with Gerri Colombe (157p from 156p) who ran out a game winner by a length and three quarters from Balco Coastal (153 from 146p). Still unbeaten and not quite the finished article in some respects, Gerri Colombe will be suited by greater tests of stamina than he’s had so far (entered in the Brown Advisory and National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham) and remains capable of better still.

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