Timefigure tips for Cheltenham Festival 2024 day four

The form this column has been in on the opening two days of Cheltenham has made Nicky Henderson look like a hot stable and for those of us fortunate to be on Sir Gino at big prices ante-post in the opening race on the final day, the JCB Triumph Hurdle, the sad news broke on Thursday morning that he had been ruled out of the Triumph.

The vultures on social media have been circling around Henderson all week and his fellow trainers weren’t in the mood to let him off lightly either by declaring 13 runners against him when a good number fewer might have been expected a week ago when the horse was odds-on.

I’ve no doubt that Sir Gino was the outstanding hurdler in the field, regardless of what Milan Tino didn’t do for his latest piece off form in the Boodles. His debut success at Auteuil over the re-opposing Salvator Mundi with two next-time-out winners well behind in third and fourth was achieved far more comfortably than the winning margin suggests, hands and heels for him and vigorous encouragement for Salvator Mundi, and nothing has been able to live with him from the last hurdle in both his wins here.

That’s all by the by now, however, which leaves Kargese top on overall time but she has little in hand of several rivals, most of whom emanate from her own stable. Mighty Bandit, who of course beat the Boodles winner Lark In The Mornin on his debut, is a fascinating and unexpected addition to the field having been transferred to Warren Greatrex, while the booking of Brian Hayes for the aforementioned Salvator Mundi suggests he’s some way down the stable pecking order, but no bet looks the best call.

Dan Skelton had a handicap double on Wednesday with Langer Dan and Unexpected Party, who had both fallen in the weights and improved on recent efforts, and looks to have another horse primed for the County Hurdle in the shape of l'Eau du Sud.

He’s marginally top on time courtesy of his fine second to Iberico Lord in the Betfair Hurdle last time, a race that regardless of Iberico Lord’s no-show in the Champion Hurdle is working out well, and it would be folly to overlook his stable’s fine record in the race.

All the same, 11/2 isn’t too appealing a price given the number of interesting horses in opposition including a couple (King Of Kingsfield and Absurde) who chased home Ballyburn and Slade Steel at the Dublin Racing Festival. Handicap marks of 140 and 138 respectively for that pair don’t look excessive in light of events this week and this looks ultra-competitive.

Winners at 50/1, 33/1 (twice) and 18/1 (twice) in the last ten years suggest the Albert Bartlett is a race in which to proceed warily. Captain Teague has achieved most on the clock so far and won’t have any trouble with the step up to three miles but the form of the Challow Hurdle he won last time has been let down several times since and I prefer the claims of next best Readin Tommy Wrong if not enough to put him forward as a selection.

Galopin Des Champs has 7lb in hand on time (from the 2023 runner-up Bravemansgame) in the Gold Cup but perhaps isn’t quite as superior to another rival Gerri Colombe as their clash at Leopardstown at Christmas suggests. The pair took contrasting routes that day and this test has long looked what Gerri Colombe, who did well in the circumstances to beat Envoi Allen at Down Royal in November, has wanted and he may yet show that the market confidence in him at 7/4 that day, when Galopin Des Champs was 6/4, wasn’t misplaced.

The concluding Martin Pipe looks a very tough race to crack but the other two races, the Hunters’ Chase and the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase look to offer a couple of opportunities.

Dual Festival winner Samcro makes an appearance in the former but it’s a horse I’ve long admired who catches me eye. That horse is FERNS LOCK who I backed ante-post for this race in 2023 after noting his late-race sectionals were much quicker than those of Gerri Colombe on the same card at Fairyhouse in November only for his trainer David Christie to rule that the race would come a year too early for him.

He was beaten by the re-opposing Its On The Line at Down Royal on Boxing Day but lack of condition surely contributed to that defeat as he travelled all over the eventual winner only to get collared after the last. A winner at Thurles since, he’s a sound jumper and can give his sire Telescope a second winner at the meeting following Slade Steel.

Favourite for the Mrs Paddy Power is Dinoblue and she brings some very strong credentials to table having won four of her five races since finishing second in the Grand Annual last year and finishing second to El Fabiolo at the Dublin Racing Festival.

She’s only once raced at two and a half miles, finishing fourth behind Brandy Love at Fairyhouse’s Easter meeting in 2022, running well enough to suggests she stayed the trip that day but she’s not got as much in hand of her rivals even on basic ability as the betting suggests and in receipt of 5lb the thriving mare LIMERICK LACE makes plenty of appeal given she’s nothing to find on the clock.

Few will be staying on more strongly given she finished second in the Troytown Handicap over three miles two starts back and she’s already made a winning appearance in Britain this year when barely off the bridle to land a good listed race at Doncaster last time.

Cheltenham Festival Friday selections

1pt win Ferns Lock in the Hunters' Chase at 16.10 (11/4 General)

1pt win Limerick Lace in the Mrs Paddy Power Chase at 16.50 (9/2 General)