Timefigure analysis on Dewhurst winner and 2000 Guineas hopeful Gewan after Newmarket victory

Gewan a Classic contender after Dewhurst win

“We went to Doncaster last time where she was disappointing, but I’ve lost all confidence in the going description at that track. We came here expecting a top-four finish but given a decent surface she has shown her true colours”.

When one of the county’s leading trainers Charlie Johnston calls out Yorkshire’s oldest racecourse and home of the St Leger in such unflattering terms as he was reported to have done after his filly had finished second in the Fillies’ Mile, it’s fair to say the relationship between trainers and course clerks responsible for returning official information must be teetering at an all-time low.

Dissatisfaction with official going reports last week wasn’t concerned to trainers on the Flat either; at Chepstow’s ‘Welsh Racing Festival’, the first jumps fixture of the new campaign, held over three days this year and supposedly the changing of the seasons between the summer and winter disciplines, a scarcely-believable 47 horses were taken out on account of ‘unsuitable ground’ after the official going description ended up changing from ‘Soft in places’ on Monday to ‘Good to Firm with watering to maintain’ after the conclusion of the first day’s racing on Friday.

Andrew Balding was not inclined to blame Dewhurst winner Gewan’s defeat in a Champagne Stakes at Doncaster run in driving rain wholly on the ground – he was reported to have said he thought his colt ‘ran flat’ that day – and the course executive will no doubt point to the subsequent victories in France on Arc weekend of Puerto Rico (in the Group 1 Jean-Luc Lagardere) and Cape Orator as proof that the Champagne was a well up-to scratch renewal, but his Doncaster defeat on ground Timeform called Good but was clearly very loose on top, perhaps not co-incidentally coming in the same race in which Rosallion had suffered his only defeat (on loose dead ground) as a two-year-old in 2023.

Anyone staying faithful to the old maxim ‘always forgive a horse a poor last run’ will have been pleased with Gewan’s 25/1 starting price, much as they would have been with the 61/10 Rosallion returned when getting back to winning ways immediately in the 2023 Jean-Lug Lagardere.

A larger-than-usual field is often an indicator that the race is thought more widely to lack some of its usual quality, but the latest Dewhurst (which featured the biggest field since 2009) wasn’t short on smart youngsters with National Stakes first and second Zavateri and Gstaad as well as Somerville winner Distant Storm one of three horses who went into the race with a Timeform rating of 113 or higher.

If his Champagne flop could be overlooked, that Somerville race provided a clue to Gewan’s potential as he had thumped Distant Storm by getting on for five lengths in the Acomb at York, a race in which he also had the re-opposing Italy back in second. Gewan didn’t beat Distant Storm by so far this time – two and a quarter lengths officially – for all he left Italy much further behind, but he improved his own performance level to 118, sufficient to make him the best two-year-old seen out so far in Britain, Ireland and France besides inviting comparisons too with Chaldean who took in the same four races at two that Gewan has so far and went on to win the 2000 Guineas before the better milers caught up with him.

Chaldean’s timefigure in the Dewhurst was 117, so it’s fair to say that Gewan (whose Dewhurst timefigure was 115) is already of very similar merit and it’s hard to knock the form with the ‘right’ horses in second Gstaad (113 timefigure, 4lb higher than his Coventry win), Distant Storm (109 timefigure, 2lb lower than his Tattersalls win) in third and Zavateri (106 timefigure, just 2lb below his best) back in fourth.

If I had a slight concern about the result, it would be that there was a possible advantage to be had on the stand rail, which is where Gewan ended up, but the 12/1 still available for the 2026 2000 Guineas is slightly bigger than I might have expected given Aidan O’Brien’s diminishing targeting of the race in recent years.

Precise puts forward her Guineas claims

Neither of the other two Group races for two-year-olds on the card, the mile-and-a-quarter Zetland Stakes nor the mile Autumn Stakes, produced good timefigures, with the former being won by Pierre Bonnard in 88 and the latter being won by Hankelow in 82.

That said, Pierre Bonnard, who’d taken a marked step up from his debut form when winning at Dundalk in August, did so again to beat his stable-companion Endorsement convincingly by a length, albeit the first two raced more stand side than the rest, and sectional upgrades suggest his overall timerating is worth 106 which even then probably understates his superiority over the rest given his rider Christophe Soumillon’s body language suggested he had plenty left underneath him.

Hankelow’s closing sectionals at the end of a similarly modestly-run race don’t paint such a rosy picture – an 11lb upgrade is a bit disappointing all things considering, taking his overall timerating to 93 - and with the field in a heap behind the winner it looks as if this renewal falls some way short of those won in recent years by Delacroix, Ancient Wisdom and Coroebus.

In contrast, the other Group contest, the Darley Stakes, as well as the concluding Listed contest, the Boadicea Stakes, were well run and returned decent enough figures. Dante runner-up Damysus followed up his win in a good-looking Listed race at Deauville (runner-up Nitoi won in similar company at Chantilly the same day) in a 110 timefigure in the Darley Stakes despite a drop to nine furlongs while Dubai Treasure took the Boadicea in a career-best 104 after being the first to get the stand rail, another on the day to demonstrate the potential upside of overlooking a modest recent run.

Gewan might not have gone straight to the top of the 2000 Guineas market but Friday’s Fillies’ Mile Precise heads the betting for the 1000 ahead of her stable-companion Diamond Necklace after beating the aforementioned Venetian Lace by three and a quarter lengths in a 106 timefigure, worth anything between a 1lb and a 3lb upgrade depending on which sectional point you use, taking her overall timerating to a 107 minimum.

Her winning margin was possibly a combination of the early leaders, notably Venetian Lace, going off slightly harder than ideal and being produced closest to the stand rail, but in her defence she never looked in any trouble and could be called the winner some way out. 107 puts her on a similar level on the clock to previous Fillies’ Mile winners Rhododendron, Laurens and Inspiral and not far short of Desert Flower.

She’s a bit more to find with O’Brien’s 2015 winner Minding, but interestingly Minding was his last winner of the Moyglare Stud and Fillies’ Mile in the same season, and she, of course, went on to win both the 1000 and the Oaks.

Earlier in the day, the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, went to Calendar Girl in a 99 timefigure. One of the form picks in the race after winning a Doncaster sales race last time, she looked suited by the return to seven furlongs, leading inside the final furlong and battling on well to record a clear career best on the clock.

Her 99 timefigure was identical to that recorded by French challenger Beauvatier in the following Challenge Stakes. In contrast to that race, however, Calendar Girl never managed a single furlong according to the tracking data under 11 seconds, running her fastest furlong which was her third last in 11.11 seconds; by the end of the fourth furlong in his race, Beauvatier had already run three consecutive furlongs under 10.75 seconds and only in the last of those did he improve out of last place!

His overall form suggested that good to firm hasn’t always looked ideal for him, but conditions were verging on firm in both the Luc-Lagardere as a two-year-old and in the Betfair Sprint Cup last time out where he wasn’t well drawn either.

The other pattern events, the Cornwallis Stakes and the Pride Stakes, went to Beckford’s Folly and Karmology in 106 and 83 respectively. Beckford’s Folly got the better of Brussels, who looks to have grown a bit more every time I look at him and wasn’t troubled one bit by the drop to five furlongs, in the Cornwallis, so paying a compliment not only to Wise Approach who’d beaten him in the Middle Park despite coming from well off the pace but by extension Precise who had the hitherto unbeaten Venetian Sun (beat Wise Approach in the Prix Morny when Gstaad was second) back in third in the Moyglare Stud whatever you might make of the less than clear run Venetian Sun encountered in the closing stages.

Maybe 4/1 for the 1000 Guineas and 12/1 for the Oaks (6/1 and 10/1 for their Irish equivalents) about Precise aren’t bad prices at all.

Jumps for fun at Chepstow

Despite the plethora of non-runners, Chepstow’s Welsh Racing Fixture threw up a few good time performances.

Best of those over hurdles among the winners was the 141 recorded by Rambo T in the Silver Trophy which is the second fastest in the race since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps; however, a 6lb rise in his mark for winning a race where several of his rivals were at different stages of preparedness means he’s going to find things much tougher if he runs in the Greatwood Hurdle next time out.

His trainer Olly Murphy also landed the Persian War with Sticktotheplan (138 timefigure, easy career best) who’d last been seen winning a listed race at the Galway Festival in July when trained in Ireland and has been given an opening official rating of 143.

Evergreen eleven-year-old Hang In There won the veterans’ chase in a 151 timefigure and his new rating of 152 probably won’t be beyond him if kept to similar contests.

Up at Hexham, Roger Pol returned the joint third-fastest winning timefigure over hurdles since 2017 at the course when winning a handicap off a mark of 125 under promising claimer Isabelle Ryder who has scored on five of her last seven mounts. More detailed jumps analysis will follow once the turf Flat season comes to a close.

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