Timefigure analysis on Cheltenham Festival hopefuls including Shishkin and Edwardstone

Wins doing Handstands

It might have been snowy and frosty last week but none of the really significant action was lost to the elements and the first of the noteworthy races was the Sidney Banks Memorial, a listed novice hurdle run at Huntingdon which went to a horse who has featured several times in this column, Handstands, most recently when identified as one who might have gone under the radar for Cheltenham but is now being considered for the Baring Bingham and not a handicap as I was perhaps hoping rather optimistically.

The Sidney Banks has quite an interesting history. First run in 1976 when it went to the subsequent dual Colonial Cup (the American equivalent of the Grand National) winner Grand Canyon, a New Zealand-bred who also won races in France and Italy before ending his days parading for the London Horse Guards, it has been won by plenty of good horses considering the venue, including, of course, current Gold Cup candidate Shishkin. Unlike Shishkin, Grand Canyon was beaten (at odds of 4/9) when attempting to follow up in the Supreme, finishing runner-up to Beacon Light who went on to be placed in the 1979 Champion Hurdle behind Monksfield.

The Sidney Banks was abandoned four times in its first five years, flooding or waterlogging being the culprit on three of those occasions, and it would have been abandoned again this year, for the first time since 1990, for the same reason had the meeting been staged 24 hours later when the course was under water once again. As it was, just the four runners went to post for the second year running with the penalised Jango Baie heading the market following his win in the Grade 1 Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree on Boxing Day, a race which has stood up well to subsequent scrutiny.

Jango Baie might have won the Formby on heavy – he might not have won at all had Farren Glory stood up – but he’d previously shown a smart turn of foot himself under faster conditions at two miles at Ascot and it says a lot about Handstands’ versatility that he could run him down on such a speed-favouring track even if the runner-up does end up proving best at two miles.

Handstands hasn’t run an outstanding timefigure yet – Timeform gave him 106 for this and the highest figure he has run to in three outings under Rules is just 115 – but his sectional times and final circuit time in his opening romp at Hereford, on his first start since winning an Irish point, on a day when the Timeform 141-rated Call Me Lord won over the same course and distance in a much slower time, suggested to me he’s a mid 140s horse and won’t be out of place in better company.

Shishkin does all that was asked of him

The aforementioned Shishkin was back in action, too, at Newbury on Saturday on an interesting Betfair-sponsored card, and he emerged with his Gold Cup credentials unharmed after the Denman Chase which is one of the last two recognised trials for the Blue Riband. ‘Gritty’, ‘gutsy’ and ‘game’ were just three of the adjectives I read that described his first win of the season – though that would surely have been his second had he stood up in the King George. However, I saw none of the faint-praise attributes only a strong-travelling performance in a race that wasn’t run at an out-and-out gallop with as much dossing as bossing after the final fence where he kept Hitman, a serial loser but a high-class performer, at bay very readily by four and a half lengths.

Further detailed analysis of Shishkin’s final circuit time, or any of his finishing times from each of the last three fences, does not shine a brighter light on the 153 timefigure he posted, not least given there was a novice handicap chase over the same distance with which to compare it besides Edwardstone’s victory in the Game Spirit. However, Shishkin did all that was asked of him and, given he has twice posted timefigures of 173 or higher with a peak of 178, he must go to Cheltenham as the leading domestic hope unless L’Homme Presse registers something special this weekend. It's also worth considering that Shishkin is still unexposed at a trip his trainer has belatedly realised might have been the one he wanted all along.

Another eminent trainer whose modus operandi has arguably been a bit too too inflexible over the years is Alan King. Much as on the Flat, horses ridden from the front or prominently over jumps are a much more plentiful source of winners than those held up, yet of King’s 52 runners over the sticks so far in 2024 41 have been ridden mid-division or further back, resulting in just four winners, while three of the five that made the running – Ski Lodge, Masaccio and Edwardstone – were successful.

With regards to Edwardstone specifically, I suspect King’s hand was forced to a degree with the one-time Arkle winner’s career in danger of going off the rails after a failed experiment over two and a half miles last time and there’s no doubt he was impressive visually, measuring his fences well, unharried and seemingly enjoying himself unleashed for a change (the last time he was ridden this close up was in the Arkle believe it or not).

A 154 timefigure is more than satisfactory, albeit 8 lb lower than when beaten fairly and squarely by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek, but, as with Shishkin, neither his final circuit time nor sectionals from each of the last three fences, even adjusting for being left alone from two out, suggest his overall timefigure warrants upgrading more than a few pounds. I might not be convinced his chance of winning the Champion Chase has improved dramatically but the tactics that will now be employed on him in that race have added plenty of intrigue if nothing else and for that we should be grateful.

Mullins winning for Fun Fun Fun

No doubt Exeter’s student day on Sunday was marketed well in advance as one where plenty of fun would be had and by a stroke of good fortune a horse with that befitting name turned up in one of the two listed events that headlined the card.

Both races attracted small fields despite a couple of rare challengers from Ireland but the first at least provided a cracking finish with the Willie Mullins-trained Fun Fun Fun making the most of her mares' allowance to see off the Alan King-trained Formby runner-up Favour And Fortune by half a length. Favour And Fortune was held up last of the three runners and would probably have won had he not only jumped better but also not allowed the mare first run in a less-than-truly-run contest that returned just an ordinary 122 timefigure.

Carole’s Pass won the other listed race for mares over fences in a decent 136 timefigure, seemingly helped no end by the step up to three miles, but the one winner on the card that impressed me was Crebilly. He might only have won a three-runner novice chase, and no doubt excuses will be put forward for both Tahmuras and Trelawne for either not keeping straight or needing a stiffer test, but Crebilly really motored home, running a fast final circuit as well as very fast fractions from three out, even after allowances have been made for the other two chases being run over half a mile further. It was a win reminiscent of Stay Away Fay’s chasing debut here back in November.

A most progressive hurdler last year, Crebilly has taken time to find his feet – literally – over fences but there’s a good deal of hidden ability for me in this performance and I’d be confident he’s still very well handicapped over fences even off his new BHA rating of 139. Concluding bumper winner Teeshan created a very good impression and I’ll discuss this season’s crop of bumper horses in next week’s column.

Given the Dublin Racing Festival had taken place the previous weekend there wasn’t a lot to get excited about, unsurprisingly, in Ireland at the weekend, but one mare who did make a welcome return after a few minor setbacks reportedly was Brighterdaysahead who was last seen winning a Grade 3 event at Down Royal in November.

She faced a simple task in a listed race at Navan, despite conceding 7lb all round, and a 131 timefigure would have been nearer the 136 she recorded at Down Royal had she not been eased after the last. She remains with as good a chance as any in the Mares' Novice at Cheltenham with significantly superior bumper form – as I see it anyway, assessed on times and sectionals – than her current market rival Jade de Grugy.

The two William Hill sponsored Grade 2 events, the Boyne Hurdle and the Ten Up Novice Chase, went to Hiddenvalley Lake and American Mike respectively. On the face of things Hiddenvalley Lake looked to put up a very useful effort in the Boyne but as so often is the case the positioning of this race, which ought to be a prime contender for being axed, ahead of Cheltenham and the release of the Grand National weights – as well as its intermediate distance – makes it an ideal target for those needing a less-than-strenuous warm-up for one or both.

The joint youngest in the field, Hiddenvalley Lake unsurprisingly had far too much toe for some much older rivals who need further, settling a steadily-run race (timefigure just 89) with very little depth to the form. The enigmatic (even by his trainer’s admission) American Mike saw off Nick Rockett in a well-run Ten Up (timefigure 149) which makes the below-par efforts of Minella Cocooner and Favori de Champdou easier to forgive and maybe this trip – his first attempt at three miles – might finally be the making of him remembering that he was surprisingly (at the time, at least) started off over hurdles at an extended two and three-quarter miles despite finishing second in the Champion Bumper.

The previous day at Naas Allegorie De Vassy had got her career back on track with a defeat of a couple of rivals, Riviere d’Etel and Maskada, who were seemingly slightly better in at the weights but appeared caught out by either the trip or fitness after a two-month break. Time comparisons weren’t made easy by the only other chase on the card being a gruelling hunter chase in which the winner ran the final circuit around 16 seconds – approximately a furlong – slower. A 126 timefigure suggests the form should be treated with a degree of caution but the revelation she has a new work rider at home could also mean she might yet scale the heights she once promised. I’m sure we’ll soon find out!

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