Timefigure analysis of Protektorat's Betfair Chase win and 25/1 Cheltenham Festival bet

Many a true word is said in jest as the saying goes and I was reminded of that maxim when reading a tweet early last week that said there would be more Festival clues at Fairyhouse last Tuesday than there had been at Cheltenham the previous weekend.

Given the star entries at Ascot’s upcoming weekend fixture, I doubt the poster also had it in the back of his or her mind that Fairyhouse would also outdo Ascot on that score but after a chaotic Saturday when three 2022 Festival winners – Constitution Hill, Edwardstone and L’Homme Presse – were withdrawn on account of apparently unsuitable ground conditions that looked to me what happened too.

With the remit of this column being to try and offer some insight into horses that ran rather than stayed in their boxes, I’ll leave the merits or otherwise of the withdrawals to others, but it does seem to me that the recent marketing push to label Chepstow’s early October weekend as the jumps ‘season-opener proper’ is starting to look one of the biggest misnomers of all time.

Thankfully, the one other big-race winner from the 2022 Festival declared on Saturday who did stand his ground was the Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard who was expected to defend his Betfair Chase with ease only to fail to finish in the first three for the first time in his life.

Neither Rachael Blackmore nor Henry de Bromhead was able to offer an explanation, and tests subsequently appear to be inconclusive, so with the ground not testing enough for Bristol de Mai, even if the former winner is a pale shadow of himself, and Frodon not a player in this company any longer, Protektorat was left with only Eldorado Allen to beat to land a prize his trainer hadn’t been slow in telling everyone he had targeted.

An 11-length defeat of a horse Bravemansgame had beaten only one-third as far in the Charlie Hall elevates him a couple of places up the staying handicap chase rankings and his 168 timefigure is not only the fourth best in the race since Timeform began returning timefigures in 2015 but also the second best recorded over fences at three miles or more in the past twelve months.

The horse who still tops that particular list is, of course, A Plus Tard, whose Gold Cup winning timefigure was 178. Protektorat might be improved for having had a wind operation since finishing third in that race, but it’s hard to forget just how easily he - along with everything else – was made to look second-rate in March as A Plus Tard stormed fifteen lengths clear, pretty much all after the final fence. The Gold Cup winner has to be the horse to take out of the race looking ahead to the next renewal from a betting perspective with 9/1 quotes (from 4/1) still looking a total overreaction.

Earlier in the afternoon, Hitman had got back to winning ways in the graduation chase. He stood out on form, having 10lb and more in hand at the weights according to Timeform, and unsurprisingly wasn’t extended to stroll home in a 128 timefigure. The fact he came home from each of the last three fences not all that much faster than the officially 109-rated No Cruise Yet managed in the earlier three-and-a-half miler suggests to me that none of his rivals really turned up.

On an interesting card, Botox Has won the staying handicap hurdle off a mark of 144 and Tahumas landed the Listed opener. Botox Has had fared easily the best of those ridden prominently in a well-run Pertemps qualifier at Cheltenham on his reappearance and made the most of less pace pressure here (timefigure just 108) though no doubt third-placed Run For Oscar, who was the only horse to run the third- and second-last furlongs faster than the winner, would have been a completely different proposition had the pace not been so steady. I flagged up Tahumas in this column after his win at Chepstow and he won with plenty to spare ultimately in a 120 timefigure, though left the impression an even more strongly-run race would have suited him even better.

Ascot’s Saturday card saw fifteen of the already paltry forty-five horses declared withdrawn. Not unexpectedly, there was little of interest from a timefigure perspective in the feature races of the day, the Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase and the Coral Hurdle, on the back of the defections with Coole Cody and Goshen scoring in timefigures of 129 and 126 respectively.

The former contest reflected the farcical scenes of the afternoon with the only other runner-up Saint Calvados running himself into the ground, while Goshen could hardly have won less impressively on ground that had quickened up from the preceding day yet was still appreciably slower than the Friday of the corresponding fixture back in 1983 when the ground was returned officially as firm, six races attracted just twenty-nine runners yet two of the winners were future Gold Cup winners Dawn Run and Desert Orchid. So much for climate change!

The time performance of the day (148) was posted by Boothill in the concluding handicap chase, elevated to nearer 155 when sectional upgrades which still inform the jumps timefigures at Timeform are incorporated. Boothill has had his share of problems in the past, so the fact he ran at all suggested the ground wasn’t all some were making it out to be, and he might yet give the top novices something to think about should he stay sound.

Whether Jonbon turns out to be a future Gold Cup winner only time will reveal but the Supreme runner-up could hardly have made a more promising start to his career over fences under Rules with an impressive win in a novice at Warwick that had gone to subsequent Sporting Life Arkle winner Edwardstone the previous year.

Making the running at a strong gallop, Jonbon put in a good round of jumping and had the race won coming off the final turn. Whether the race took as much winning as it looked on paper is open to question with runner-up Monmiral not the horse last season he had been the previous one and West Cork’s rider seemingly content to finish third but a 152 timefigure is a very high one historically for a chasing newcomer and puts him among a very good group of horses as a tweet sent out by Timeform last week highlights.

There was a fair bit of derision in places afterwards about the 2/1 offered about his chance in the Arkle (the Racing Post ran an article saying the ante-post market was out of control) but, barring injury, he’s bound to turn up there in what is likely to be another very small field and there’s realistically only a handful of horses among the two-mile novices still untested over fences capable of beating him.

Another horse whose price contracted sharply for Cheltenham after winning last week was State Man who took down, if that is the right description for a defeat of a nine-year-old stable-companion having his first run for nigh on a year and another stablemate well below top class also coming back from a long break, Sharjah and Saldier in a poorly-contested Unibet Morgiana Hurdle.

A 148-timefigure suggests the pace set by Saldier wasn’t an overly testing one but the turn of foot State Man showed between two out and the final hurdle (which he ran two seconds faster than the other hurdles winners on the card) was quite taking before the Pertemps winner Shewearsitwell and opening winner Nusret outran him from the last. He’s still got some improvement to make on the clock before he can be considered a top-class hurdler, but he’ll give Honeysuckle more to think about than most of her recent opponents should they clash next month.

The previous day at Punchestown Queens Brook put a disappointing reappearance at Limerick behind her with a resounding win in a 139 timefigure, just 3lb short of her best, in a well-run listed Mares’ Hurdle. The card also featured the chasing debut of the once highly-touted Kilcruit and the former Champion Bumper runner-up (also third in last year’s Supreme) completed a simple task with ease in a decent enough 132 timefigure, though he’ll have to progress a lot better than he did over hurdles to make the grade over fences.

Earlier in the week, his stablemates Dolcita and Blue Lord made winning reappearances over fences at Clonmel in the listed Mares’ Chase and the feature Clonmel Oil Chase. Dolcita ran the faster of the pair, posting a 128 timefigure compared to Blue Lord’s 100, yet still managed to come home from the final fence faster than last year’s Arkle third.

So, were there Festival clues aplenty at Fairyhouse as the tweeter suggested? I’d have to agree and say yes, though the performance that caught my eye as I’ll outline in a minute was not one that made it more widely into the public domain.

Harmonya Maker was put in near the head of the betting for the Mares’ Novice hurdle after an 18-length win over Law Ella (who had been beaten lengths by current favourite for that race, Ashroe Diamond, in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree) in the opening maiden.

The runner-up ruined her chance by making bad errors at the final two hurdles, but the performance was still a good one in my book with a 125 timefigure a decent foundation for something much better later in the season. The beginners chase looked a decent event and went the way of the very promising Gerri Colombe who maintained his unbeaten record in a 137 timefigure.

He’s got the action of a horse that typically appreciates very soft ground, so it will be interesting to see how he is campaigned going forward with most of the New Year Festivals typically taking place on quicker surfaces.

If there was a future Cheltenham winner on show, however, it was surely Ferns Lock in the Hunter Chase. Despite contesting the last of four races on the chase course on heavy ground and over a longer trip, Ferns Lock ran the distance from the third last to the line (as well as from two out and the final fence) faster than Gerri Colombe without even coming off the bridle after a superb round of jumping.

Those final sectionals paint a much rosier picture of his ability than his overall timefigure (68, reflecting a steadily-run race) and I suspect he’s little if any inferior to his stablemate Vaucelet who currently heads the market at 9/2 for the Foxhunters. Whether Ferns Cross takes in the 2023 renewal remains to be seen, but at 25/1 I’m quite happy to pay to find out.

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