Timefigure analysis of Paddington's Coral-Eclipse win at Sandown and more
Timeform's Graeme North unpicks the result of the Coral-Eclipse in his latest 'Watch and Learn' column, while he has some nursery horses for the notebook.
It might have been the second time in the last three years that the Coral-Eclipse has attracted just four runners – the days when Falbrav defeated 15 rivals in 2003 are long gone seemingly, the race having attracted a double-figure field only twice since and not at all since 2009 when Sea The Stars won his third Group 1 of the season - but when you have two top-class horses as closely matched as Paddington and Emily Upjohn and both bring their A-game to the track then the number of others runners, other than from a betting turnover perspective, isn’t too much to get worked up about.
Other than the two principals representing different generations, an additional fascination was provided by Paddington stepping up to a mile and a quarter for the first time after his strong finish to the St James’s Palace Stakes, whereas Emily Upjohn was dropping back two furlongs after swatting aside Westover (who was in action the same afternoon in France in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud) in the Coronation Cup.
A decent pace set by the Hardwicke runner-up West Wind Blows, himself dropping back in trip and one of the most reliable horses in training, ensured a fair contest and though Emily Upjohn emerged with a 2lb bigger upgrade than Paddington on account of making her challenge from further back, Paddington always looked like he was doing enough and could have found a bit more if required as he held on by half a length in a 120 timefigure, the pair drawing six lengths clear of West Wind Blows.
Paddington’s Eclipse timefigure is among the higher ones in the race this century, albeit 12lb below the figure achieved by Sea The Stars – sire of Emily Upjohn – but when a 9lb sectional upgrade is added on (from four furlongs out) his overall timerating rises to 129 which is identical to that he posted in the St James’s Palace Stakes. Paddington’s win was the sixth for his age group in the last eight renewals when at least one three-year-old has taken part, and since the turn of the century in the years they have provided a representative they have supplied 45% of the winners from 34% of the runners.
John Gosden might believe the stats are more on his side when he steps Emily Upjohn back up to a mile and a half in the King George next time, but using the same criteria three-year-olds have provided 35% of the winners in that race from 23% of the runners, albeit only having won the race four times since 2003. For what it’s worth a four-year-old hasn’t won the race since 2017, while five-year-olds have won three of the last four runnings in which the Classic generation has been represented. Paddington seems likely to drop back to a mile in the Sussex Stakes and it’s hard to know what might beat him.
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West is best in France
Over at Saint-Cloud, the aforementioned Westover won his second Group 1 when proving too good again for Zagrey who had finished one place and two lengths behind him when the pair had been second and third behind Japanese superstar Equinox in the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March.
For the first time, Westover, who might be a strong stayer but has occasionally looked short of a turn of foot, had the ‘benefit’ of a pacemaker in the form of recent Irish import Malabu Drive, but what the point is of utilising a horse as a pacemaker so inferior to the horse he’s supposedly making the pace for I’ve no idea.
Fortunately for Westover, the German-trained Tunnes did the pacemaker’s job for him but with the ground far too fast for him (the winning time was the fastest since the race was shortened by 100 meters in 1987), the runner-up leaving the impression he just needed his first run for four months and the third looking a non-stayer, quite what figure Westover had to post to succeed I’m not sure.
As I’ve written before, I’d like to see him stepped up to two miles.
Paddington might have carried the baton for the three-year-olds in the Eclipse, but the 2000 Guineas and St James’ Palace Stakes form took a kicking in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville on Sunday when Chaldean, Hi Royal and Charyn all finished well beaten with only Guineas tenth Indestructible emerging from the race with any credit after managing fourth place.
Comparisons with previous Jean Prat’s are scarce as the race was only moved to Deauville in 2018 having previously been run at Chantilly and then had its distance reduced to 1400m in 2019, but if nothing else Good Guess matched the same three-length winning margin Too Darn Hot posted in the first running at the present distance.
A 34.68 closing 600m was easily the fastest in the race, getting on for nearly a second faster than the next fastest posted by the third-placed Breizh Sky who’d done better of the pair in the French 2000 Guineas. But with so many horses not giving their running (quite what Charyn was doing back in trip when his Ascot effort suggested even a mile nowadays is insufficient) this result looks a whole lot less than the sum of its parts. At least the British challenge turned up in the Group 3 Prix de Ris-Orangis, the five-year-old Spycatcher returning to winning ways after his narrow defeat in the Chipchase.
Juveniles to follow
I devoted column space last week to some promising two-year-olds and staying on that theme there are a couple of interesting types across the Channel in France called Beauvatier and Ramatuelle who maybe haven’t got the attention their status merits, not least the former who arguably has shown the best form so far in Europe.
The pair fought out the finish of a Class 2 event at Saint-Cloud at the end of May before Ramatuelle went on to win the Prix du Bois at Chantilly by five lengths and the former extended his unbeaten sequence by winning the listed Prix Roland de Chambure at Deauville over the weekend.
The fallout from Royal Ascot suggested that the Irish juveniles are a better bunch collectively right now than their domestic counterparts and Ramatuelle’s authoritative five-length win in the Bois (the only Group race run for juveniles in France so far) suggests that the British youngsters might also be behind the best of the French.
There’s every chance that Ramatuelle will be seen next in the Prix Robert-Papin and given the only previous horse to have won the Bois by a similar margin in recent years was Atomic Force, who went on to win the Robert-Papin by two and a half lengths, her prospects of following up too must be good.
To my eyes the good-moving Ramatuelle was seen to better effect on the good to firm ground at Chantilly than she had been on the slower surface at Saint-Cloud where the rail was also out 16 meters, so adding approximately 36 meters to the official 1200m race distance by my calculations.
That said, Beauvatier, who’s bred to be suited by much further being by Lope de Vega out of a Sea The Stars mare who was useful and won over an extended ten furlongs, still had enough speed to run each of the four individual 200 meter sections faster than Ramatuelle according to the official tracking data which also showed he was the only horse all day to dip under 11 seconds for the penultimate 200m.
His Roland de Chambure success over a promising Aga Khan horse who’d come from last to first when winning a newcomers' race at ParisLongchamp on his only previous start was achieved in very ready fashion and I’ll wager he is among the best if not the best juvenile in Europe right now. The two-year-old pecking order is fluid by necessity, but he’s certainly a name to remember when Arc weekend comes around.
Domestic two-year-old scene
The biggest mover on the domestic juvenile scene last week was Kylian who provided Karl Burke with his second winner in Listed contests at Sandown this season when winning the Dragon Stakes by six lengths, so bettering the five lengths his stable-companion Elite Status had won the National Stakes by earlier in the campaign.
Polly Perkins (who never ran again) earned a timefigure of 100 for her eight-length win in the same race in 2004 but Kylian’s comes in at a more modest 95 along with a suspicion that he might have ended up the beneficiary of a pace collapse up front and a wide position on a day the far rail on the sprint track might not have been the place to be.
Incidentally, one of the horses who finished behind the aforementioned Elite Status in the National Stakes, Son Of Corballis, got back to winning ways in the Listed Tipperary Stakes at Tipperary last week. Reportedly having travelled over to Sandown poorly, Son of Corballis had the advantage of the rail again as he had on his debut and that might have swung the advantage his way with hot favourite Alabama, who’d been drawn on the wrong side in the Windsor Castle, having to make his challenge wide again. All the same, an 87 timefgure suggests this isn’t strong form.
Finally, the first nursery of the season was run at Haydock over the weekend and attracted several also-rans from Royal Ascot with the ‘form’ of the Windsor Castle, Coventry and Albany all represented, though in the end the race went to 28/1 shot Tierney who’d run respectably in the Listed Marygate at York two starts previously.
Early-season nurseries over five and six furlongs are always tricky to get a handle on. The official handicapper has had just 250 races to build his opinions from, a good number of those run under different underfoot conditions and contested by youngsters of varying maturity and ability, and though he or she will have historical race standards, timefigures and sectional upgrades to lean on the races are also the only ones contested by the progeny of untested first-season sires which add an interesting dynamic to an already uncertain picture.
Against this unusual backdrop, I’ve often found that using a simplistic ‘positional ratings’ approach often offers an insight into which horses the official handicapper might have underestimated.
For example, allowing a horse 1lb for every length behind the winner they were beaten, and then readjusting that figure from the winner’s Timeform rating if necessary if the weights they carried were different (so, for example, a horse beaten 5 lengths and carrying 7lb less than a winner whose Timeform rating in that race was 80 would get a positional rating of 68) would have seen Tierney awarded ratings of 79, 83 and 80 for her first three starts which compares favourably with the official rating of 70 she was asked to race off.
Using this approach and limiting my search to horses who have been given marks of 65 or higher, then Farah M (David Nicola Barron), Phoenix Duchess (Harry Eustace) and Princess Chizara (Conrad Allen) may all be of interest if turned out in the next couple of weeks. Not forgetting Asadna of course, whose official rating of 95 might just tempt new connections into a nursery!
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