Timefigure analysis of Darkness Falls' Dewhurst win and Musical Times' Fillies' Mile success

The Cesarewitch might have been around since 1839 when it was first run alongside the Cambridgeshire, but the Future Champions Festival with which it shares billing at Newmarket in October is a much more recent invention having been inaugurated as recently as 2011 when it began as a one-day fixture.

That day featured two juvenile contests which have since been repositioned in the calendar, the Middle Park Stakes and the Rockfel Stakes, and the four two-year-old races on the card weren’t won by future Champions either with the long-forgotten Crusade landing the Middle Park at 25/1 and 20/1-shot Parish Hall taking the Dewhurst.

The current juvenile make-up of Future Champions Festival - the Dewhurst, Zetland Stakes and Autumn Stakes on the second day and the Fillies’ Mile, Cornwallis and Oh So Sharp Stakes on the first - was settled upon in 2016 when all three two-year-old second-day winners – Churchill, Coronet and Best Solution – as well as first day scorer Rhododendron, turned out to be future Group 1 winners and handicap good thing Sweet Selection, officially as much as 17lb well in after a much-improved effort in the Doncaster Cup on her previous outing, took the Cesarewitch.

What the latest bunch of winners will end up achieving remains to be seen, but second-day winners Drumbeat equalled the longest winning distance this century in the Zetland, Rock Montreal provided Roger Varian with his first winner in the Autumn Stakes since subsequent St leger winner Kingston Hill in 2011, Darkness Falls realised the unusual feat of dropping back two furlongs in distance to win the Dewhurst while Alphonse Le Grande became just the second dual winner of the Cesarewitch after Aaim To Prosper in 2012.

First-day winner Mussab broke the two-year-old five-furlong track record in the Cornwallis, Lola De Valence gave Rod Millman just his fifth individual domestic Group winner since 2000 in the Oh So Sharp and form standout Musical Times also broke the juvenile track record in the Fillies’ Mile

All that said, Future Champions Festival wasn’t an outstanding one on the clock, with only four of the 14 winners over the two days getting into three figures and none matching even the fourth-highest figure in 2016 which was the 110 posted Rhododendron in the Fillies’ Mile, and the two-year-old track records which were broken by Mussab (by 0.53 seconds), Musical Times (0.06 seconds) and Drumbeat (1.81 seconds) were to a large part influenced by a strong following wind blowing at roughly 20–21 mph on fast ground.

Even taking those conditions into account, Mussab produced one of the better recent figures in the opening Cornwallis Stakes, his 109 being the joint-third fastest since 2016 behind Sergei Prokofiev and Mrs Danvers. Spoken of afterwards as a possible for the Breeders’ Cup, a race Sergei Prokofiev cut little ice in, he’s on the small side but has won his last three and is still improving.

The form of the Oh So Sharp is hard to pin down exactly with the big field (the joint-largest since 2016) lacking a bit in form terms, none of the runners having performed to a level close to the standard for the race, and the first eight covered by barely two lengths, but it's very likely it was an overwhelmingly substandard renewal even for a contest in which wide-margin winners are very rare, none of the winners since 2016 having won by more than a length. The timefigure was a lowly 88, too, the third lowest since 2016, rather reinforcing the view it was poor quality.

The Cornwallis and Oh So Sharp haven’t been great pointers overall to high-level future success in recent years for all 2020 Oh So Sharp winner Saffron Beach later won the Sun Chariot and 2020 Cornwallis winner Winter Power went on to win the Nunthorpe, but that accusation can’t be levelled at the bet365 Fillies’ Mile which has a long history of future top-class talent among its recent winners with Laurens, Iridessa, Inspiral, Rhododendron, Desert Flower, Ylang Ylang and Precise all on its roll of honour.

Musical Times had already shown form in winning the May Hill at Doncaster that was good enough to land an average running of this and, starting at short odds, she maintained her unbeaten record with plenty in hand in a contest in which there was a fair amount of bunching on the rail and which briefly looked as if it might be her undoing.

Having recorded a 109 timefigure at Town Moor, Musical Times followed it up here with 106, in a different way every bit as impressive as she had been then. The 1000 Guineas seems the logical next race for her, though she has 5lb to find with Sun Goddess on bare time ratings (and even more on overall ones after sectional upgrades are considered) and second favourite is probably where she should be in the betting. 

The first of the juvenile contests on Saturday was the Zetland Stakes and it went to Drumbeat who was racing in the same colours as the subsequent Dewhurst winner Darkness Falls. He stood out on form, one of only two in the field to have been tried at pattern level and had little trouble landing the odds while showing a bit more improvement for he longer trip, running to a level bettered only by Arabian Crown among recent winners and recording a 107 timefigure.

The juvenile track record might have tumbled by a considerable margin, though there have been only 44 two-year-old contests at the trip on the Rowley Mile this century compared to 420 or so over seven furlongs. The Criterium de Saint-Cloud, a race in which his trainer has 20 of the 49 entries, and which interestingly he won last year with the 2025 Zetland Stakes winner Pierre Bonnard, as well as in 2023 with Los Angeles, looks the obvious next port of call. 

The Autumn Stakes was won by Rock Montreal who was running in the race in preference to the Dewhurst Stakes. A Group 3 that numbers Delacroix and Coroebus among its recent winners, whether this renewal will throw up a three-year-old of similar stature is perhaps unlikely given the finish was fought out by a pair that had been beaten at the St Leger meeting and some long-priced runners weren’t far away.

Hardly bred for staying distances as a juvenile, being by Blue Point whose first two-year-old Group winner at a mile he is, though the sire did have a winner at listed level in France in 2023, Shady Lady, Rock Montreal deserves a crack at the 2000 Guineas but might end up being better suited to seven furlongs as Shady Lady turned out to be given this race was much more of a test of speed (timefigure just 87) than stamina.

A field of just five went to post for the Dewhurst, the premier two-year-old race in the British calendar, representing the stables that between them had won the previous seven runnings and a pair (Darkness Falls and Desert Castle) who had very little between them on form dominating the betting as well as the finish, the winner game under a good ride and giving his trainer a record ninth winner in the race and mentioned afterwards as a potential Triple Crown candidate.

Understandably having plenty of use made of him Darkness Falls became the first Dewhurst winner since the mighty Frankel to overcome being dropped in trip from his previous start, and not just one furlong as Frankel had been but two.

Bringing a two-year-old back two furlongs in distance and winning a race isn’t entirely unusual – Henry de Bromhead did it with Premier View earlier this year, winning a five-furlong maiden at Down Royal after a run at seven furlongs while Jim Goldie did it with Trumpety Trump, coming back to six from an extended eight to win a nursery at Hamilton, but to put the figures in a wider context, since 2000 less than one per cent of all two-year performances have involved a drop in trip from one start to the next of two furlongs or more, and of those 3085 instances in Britain and Ireland just 208 (or approximately six per cent) ended up as winners with only Porto Marmay who won the five-furlong Tipperary Stakes in 2007 the other besides Darkness Falls to score in Listed company or higher.

Indeed, only 13 juveniles besides Darkness Falls so far as I can establish have been asked that question in Group company in the period under review and only Opera Comique in 2003 in the seven-furlong C.L. Weld Park Stakes managed a top three finish. That’s some indication of just how unusual his feat was, and unsurprisingly he heads the 2000 Guineas ante-post market, though whether his win was achieved through exceptional talent or because the 2026 juvenile colts are a soft touch (the Prix Morny, Prix Jean Luc-Lagardereand Phoenix Stakes have all been won by fillies) only time will tell.

His winning time was the joint third-fastest at the trip in a juvenile race at the track this century but translates only into a 109 timefigure, slightly underwhelming perhaps even after a 6lb sectional upgrade taking the overall time rating to 115. 

Also unusual was Alphonse Le Grande’s second Cesarewitch win. Only 31 horses have run in the race at least twice since 2000, and besides Aaim To Prosper two others have made the first three twice, Dawn Rising in 2025 and 2026 and Inchnadamph back in 2005 and 2006.

Aaim To Prosper’s bid for a third win came unstuck off a far higher official mark than either of his first two wins and Alphonse Le Grand finished only eighth in his only other attempt off a mark 6lb higher than for both of his victories, so he’s got it all on should he attempt to become the first horse to win it three times. That said, he ran a 96 timefigure which is only 3lb below his career best.

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