Timefigure analysis of 1000 and 2000 Guineas trials at Newmarket and Newbury

Windy HQ causes issues

Last weekend might have seen the latest renewal of the Scottish Grand National, unsurprisingly won by the thrown-in Kitty’s Light, ahead of some cracking upcoming action at Punchestown, but this column’s focus is on the Flat where the season ‘proper’ started at Newmarket and Newbury on very soft ground in contrast to Ayr where conditions had been so dry that the course (despite persisting with good to soft places in their official going report) was forced to water ahead of the big day but still couldn’t avoid a high number of ground-related withdrawals.

One of my tasks at Timeform is to train any younger members of staff who express an interest in understanding more about timefigures – and not all do, which is fine by me, as racing analysis takes many forms – and I mentioned to my latest tutee in the middle of an arduous session a few weeks ago, when he found himself totally befuddled by what turned out to be incorrectly reported rail movements at a jumps meeting we were analysing (I won’t name the course), that things would be much more straightforward when he finally got round to tackling his first set of results from Newmarket.

Headquarters is usually the easiest of Flat courses from which to return timefigures as nearly all the races (on the Rowley Mile at least) are run over the straight mile and a quarter track so wind strength and directions are often taken out of the equation. Unfortunately for him, that’s not how things panned out, and I’m not sure he didn’t end the week more confused than he started it, but using a set of different approaches we were finally able to make sense of the times each day.

Incidentally, the last time conditions at Newmarket came anywhere near as slow as those experienced last week, and then not even that close, was in 2018 when the wind was also reported to have been ‘strong, half against’, very similar to the ‘fresh, half against’ last week.

The opening day of what felt like an unnecessarily long three days - like a lot of ‘Festivals’, it wouldn’t lose much and might even be enhanced by cutting a day – saw the first couple of races contested down the centre of the track before the runners split in the third race, after which all the races developed towards the stands' side.

Where the scenario justifies it - and it’s not been uncommon to do this at Newmarket in the past – races that take part on one part of the track can be assessed separately from those that weren’t. In the event, it still meant not one timefigure on Tuesday managed it into three figures, though Ottoman Fleet’s overall timefigure came in at 103 after his sectional upgrade is incorporated. Even so that’s still a fair way below the 120 he ran to on form produced from off the pace in what was the only Group race on a low-key card.

The wind strength or direction on the second day wasn’t much different than on the opening day, possibly a bit more across, but the stands' rail that had been favoured by the riders then was generally steered away from in favour of the middle.

Overall times were once again tricky to assess, and sectional upgrades weren’t much help either, with only the sixth-race winner Silver Lady, a very well-bred Godolphin newcomer, managing an upgrade in double figures, but even then only taking her overall time rating to a relatively ordinary 89.

Mammas impresses in Nell Gwyn

Neither of the two feature races, the bet365 Fielden Stakes nor the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes returned high timefigures, compromised by a lack of pace in each, but I’d be wary of assuming they were substandard affairs.

Fielden winner Canberra Legend, unsurprisingly a son of Australia, has a pedigree full of stamina and looks a very smart middle-distance prospect, while I felt Mammas Girl deserved more credit than she got in some quarters for her Nell Gwyn win. Unbeaten now in two starts, she was still last with two furlongs to run and made such a smart forward move towards the front that she briefly caught the Racing TV producers unawares. She was the only one to make a winning effort all day on the stands' side, which the riders seemed keen to avoid otherwise, and she emerged with an upgrade four times higher than any of those who followed her home. She showed a smart turn of foot too when winning her only race here last year and with Tahiyra far from a certain starter I’d expect her 1000 Guineas price to be even shorter come the day.

The final day of the Craven meeting saw the runners once again concentrating their efforts towards the middle or far side. There was a suspicion once again the last six furlongs was riding faster than the remainder of the track, but that assumption was complicated by a number of slowly-run races and the timefigures were returned in the end on the basis the runners in the earlier races had the best of the ground.

Craven winner Indestructible posted a 101 timefigure (upgraded to 105) on his first start for Karl Burke but he’d been beaten twice by Chaldean as a two-year-old and I’m not sure he’s improved as much as this defeat of Chaldean’s stable-companion The Foxes (last seen winning the sprint finish to the Royal Lodge) suggest he has.

Two other horses on the day made a very good impression. The first was Passenger who beat a smaller field than usual in the Wood Ditton. Not untypically for a race of this type – horses who have never raced – the Wood Ditton has been a bit of a mixed bag in recent years, but a 42lb upgrade on top of a 62 timefigure suggests Sir Michael Stoute has a very decent prospect on his hands in the son of Ulysees (runner-up Kathab is also worth keeping an eye on).

The other is Waipiro who won the confined novice. Ed Walker’s three-year-old holds an entry in the Derby as did three others in the race but he beat them all and the rest with ease by three and a half lengths, a 66 timefigure upgraded to 101 after sectionals are incorporated. By Australia, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the Lingfield Derby Trial next and he shouldn’t be underestimated if he turns up there.

Isaac Shelby relished the ground

Conditions were even softer at Newbury where for the first time this century Timeform recorded the going as assessed on times as being heavy.

Whether Isaac Shelby would still have won the Greenham had Chaldean not unseated his rider leaving the stalls when bumped by Streets Of Gold is hard to know, but a 117 timefigure for the winner suggests Chaldean (who ran loose and finished upsides the winner, having a perfectly good workout in the circumstances) suggests he’d have had to be somewhere near his best. A 117 timefigure is the best in the race since subsequent 2000 runner-up Barney Roy posted a 119 in 2017 and would make him a leading contender in theory if that was his target but he isn’t entered having trailed in last of seven behind Chaldean in the Dewhurst.

He’s obviously very smart given a strongly-run seven furlongs in testing ground - his final furlong at Newbury as well as final three furlongs were the second-slowest of the day according to Course Track – but it struck me when going through the race beforehand that while he would be very well suited by conditions being by Night of Thunder (one-third of his runners on ground Timeform have called soft or heavy have finished either first or second in Britain or Ireland in the time period between the Lincoln and the Greenham) many of his rivals were by stallions whose soft or heavy ground record is nowhere near as good and whether he can reproduce the level of this effort on fast ground (acknowledging he has won under quicker conditions) remains to be seen.

Remarquee won the Fred Darling in a less impressive 84 timefigure, but the pace was steady and she didn’t reach the three-furlong marker until nearly three and a half seconds after Isaac Shelby according to Course Track, unsurprisingly allowing her to come home from that point faster than all the other winners other than Spring Cup victor Jimi Hendrix whose race was run at an even steadier pace.

Navan staged a good card on Sunday including three Listed contests but the highlight of the day was the performance of the opening two-year-old winner River Tiber, whose 98 timefigure puts him at the head of the two-year-old pack for now just ahead of Persian Dreamer who won at Newmarket earlier in the week, along with an interview with Aidan O’Brien on Racing TV in which, in stark contrast to the negative publicity one British stable brought upon itself last week, it was clear once again how much he values the staff who work for him.

River Tiber was very impressive, I thought. Sent to the front just as the field approached the furlong marker, he drew clear in devastating fashion to win by ten lengths and looks a better prospect than either of the two previous winners of the race, Aesop’s Fables who won the Group 2 Futurity Stakes next time out or Masseto who finished fourth in the 2022 Coventry.

Emily Dickenson only won by half as far in the Vintage Crop Stakes but could be the real deal this year. The race was something of a non-event with favourite French Claim effectively acting as a pacemaker, and a 95 timefigure is well below what Emily Dickenson is capable of, but if any horse in training on the Flat gives the impression they will relish two and a half miles it’s her and, much more stronger this year according to her trainer, I’m sure she has it in her to become the first female Gold Cup winner since Estimate in 2013.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.