Timefigure analysis including Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival

Plenty to cover from last week, including some interesting action from Dubai where it seemed to me a little bit of history was made, so assuming my research is correct I’ll start on the level and cover the action in the desert first.

Super Saturday at Meydan is a reminder than the Flat season proper will soon be on us, and not before time either for the many of us I suspect slightly jaded by an overdose of both inadequate stewarding and seemingly endless low-grade fare that has defined the latest domestic all-weather season, not least at Newcastle.

Not only was there a mix of some very good weekend action on turf and dirt at Meydan but as I hinted at earlier there was a performance that, so far as I am aware, is the first of its type in any of the main European jurisdictions this century. That performance was Al Dasim’s win in the Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint.

A three-year-old winning a Group race that is also open to older horses before the end of March isn’t unusual, especially in Meydan where they race earlier in the year and there are far more opportunities to do it than in Europe – my research tells me it’s been done thirty-one times in Dubai since 2000 compared to seven in Ireland and none at all in Britain or France – but for all it’s far easier to pull off the feat in Meydan where some Group races (and even Group 1s) wouldn’t get near that status elsewhere, the feat has never (this century at least) been achieved at a trip as short as six furlongs (the earliest I can trace it happening in Europe is May 2nd when Amour Propre won the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket in 2009).

Given that the very select group who have achieved that feat before the end of May this century over sprint distances also include Hot Streak, Airwave and Dandy Man, there’s every chance then that Al Dasim will, like them, develop into a high-class sprinter.

Al Dasim hasn’t just come out of nowhere - those who pay keen attention to sectional upgrades would have been well aware of his potential towards the end of 2022 where he recorded overall time ratings (timefigure plus sectional upgrades) of 115 at Wolverhampton in October and 111 in November. Those figures might have raised an eyebrow at the time given the seemingly-ordinary races he was winning but they are a powerful testimony to the accuracy of sectional upgrades not only as an aid to punting but also in identifying horses of interest before they are more widely appreciated.

Timeform don’t return timefigures publicly for races in the United Arab Emirates, though we do have a set of standards for the bigger tracks from which timefigures are calculated internally. Al Dasim ran a 117 timefigure on Saturday, the same as he has been rated on form, which is the fourth highest timefigure recorded at Meydan this year and second best on turf after the 118 Charlie Appleby’s Lazuli posted in the listed Ertijaal Dubai Dash back in January before his defeat from a poor draw in the Group2 Blue Point Sprint.

Mention of Blue Point reminds me that he also won the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint back in 2019. He went on to finish the season unbeaten, including winning both the King’s Stand Stakes and Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot. I wonder if history will repeat itself again this year with Al Dasim?

It’s unlikely to be a widely held opinion I’m sure, but the most significant performance last week over jumps in either Britain or Ireland with Cheltenham in mind seemed to me to come not in victory but in defeat with Saint Sam losing out Fils D’Oudairies in the Anton O’Toole Hurdle at Leopardstown.

On the clock, the winner (144) was back to the level of his second to Langer Dan in a Grade 3 handicap at Aintree last season when he was still trained by Nicky Henderson, and might yet figure prominently at Cheltenham where he holds entries in a couple of handicaps, but all the same it was a disappointing effort by Saint Sam, not because he went down to one who was winning just his second race over hurdles but because he was representing formlines that tie in with current Stayer’s Hurdle favourite Blazing Khal as well as Grand National top weight Any Second Now.

Those who have backed Blazing Khal for the Stayer’s (brave souls in my opinion, given he looks to me to be a horse that might end up being ground dependent and not the ground that is forecast for Cheltenham either) would have wanted him to have shown more zip I’m sure, and his defeat only adds to the feeling that the field Blazing Khal beat in the Boyne Hurdle (as well as the one Teahupoo beat in the Galmoy, given some of the same horses were involved) was even more ragbag than first thought. Just over a week away, the Stayer’s Hurdle picture is as cloudy as ever.

Having watched the videos of Henri Le Farceur, I’m not sure the latest French supplementary entry is either good enough or certain to stay, and with doubts about the horse I’m keenest on, Klassical Dream, making it there in one piece I’ll hopefully have found the solution in my daily Cheltenham timefigure previews that I’ll be writing in place of this column next week.

For once, there wasn’t much else of interest in Ireland last week, though that maybe isn’t too surprising with all eyes focused on Cheltenham. Lieutenant Command jumped better than usual in the feature handicap chase on the same card, showing his first form of a wretched season to gain a belated second success over fences.

A 138 timefigure is the best the nine-year-old has achieved but with more horses failing to finish the race than completed it the race had an early end-of-season look to it. Indiana Jones won the only graded race of the week in Ireland, the Flyingbolt Novices’ Chase. Just four went to post – none thought good enough for Cheltenham, clearly – and with Flame Bearer running a second successive shocker Indiana Jones only had to run a 137 to get the better of Ha’Dor and follow up his Punchestown novice success.

Small fields continued to dominate the jumps scene domestically last week, though that didn’t mean excitement was lacking with the bet 365-sponsored card at Kelso producing a cracking finish in the listed Premier Chase as Grand National hopeful Le Milos, matched as low as 1.02 in running, was caught close home by Empire Steel who was matched at 1000.

Harry Skelton doesn’t ride the chase track at Kelso that often, so can be excused to a degree for committing his mount to a head-to-head battle unnecessarily early, but even so six defeats from ten rides there at odds of 7/4 or shorter, including four at odds on, suggest he hasn’t yet got the hang of riding the track and if I’d backed Le Milos for the National I’d be slightly concerned about his head carriage at the point he was headed.

Empire Steel’s winning timefigure was a lowly 125 but there some mightier performances on the card with Benson winning the Morebattle Hurdle in a 140 timefigure and Nemean Lion winning the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle in 136.

Benson’s figure was the best on the clock in the Morebattle since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps in 2015 and the sixteen-runner field was also the biggest since the race was turned into a handicap in 2021 and had its race distance shortened. The first running as a handicap was won by Emmet Mullins with The Shunter and he provided the early favourite in French Grade 2 winner Mctigue but he ended up drifting very badly towards the off and never looked like making the most of his hefty four-year-old allowance.

The sharp track on relatively quick ground didn’t look to suit him anywhere as near as well as Auteuil’s more galloping circuit on deeper ground, and I’d be wary of writing him off too quickly. Both he and Benson hold engagements in the Coral Cup as well as the Martin Pipe next week and should the pair meet again, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Mctigue ends up turning the tables.

Nemean Lion has been steadily progressive on the clock this season for Kerry Lee and stepped up on his Tolworth third where he ran a 130 timefigure to score with a bit in hand from some useful novices, including Colonel Harry who was behind him at Sandown.

Newbury and Doncaster also staged decent cards at the weekend, with fields holding up better at the former venue than they had for the last couple of meetings when they were unable to water. The Big Bite and Matata shared the honours at Newbury with 133 timefigures. That’s not the best recorded by the former, who carded a 141 when third to Funambule Sivola at Doncaster in January 2022 off a 9lb higher mark, but first-time cheekpieces seemed to work the oracle and even after being reassessed he remains on a handy mark even if he does have his quirks.

Matata won well from the front in the novice handicap hurdle. For all he was able to control the pace from the front conceding plenty of weight all round, his profile both on form and on time is a very progressive one and I wouldn’t bet against him going in again off a higher mark, especially if kept to a left-handed track. He looks the sort that that is tailor made for Aintree.

Moroder took the honours in the Virgin Bet Grimthorpe at Doncaster, finding plenty off the bridle in a well-run race despite the small field to win in a 131 timefigure. He won four on the bounce last season, including over almost four miles at Exeter, and this latest win suggests he’s still improving ahead of a possible tilt at the Scottish National.

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