Check out Graeme North's final Watch And Learn column

Timefigure analysis: In his final column Graeme North looks at the Breeders' Cup action.

Horse Racing

Tue November 03, 2026 · 6h ago

In his final Watch And Learn column, Graeme North reflects on the action at Newmarket and the Breeders' Cup including Bacio's victory.

The postponement of Newbury’s final end-of-season fixture, leading to the rescheduling of its two feature races, the Horris Hill and the St Simon Stakes, has given this column a small stay of execution.

It began back in lockdown with a look at the Classic Trials at the Curragh and ParisLongchamp, alongside reflections on the victories of promising British novices My Drogo and Ahoy Senor at the behind-closed-doors Grand National meeting, and now draws to a close, having signed off last week with criticism of the ten-day ban (since rightly quashed) imposed on Jack Garrity by the Leicester stewards following their adolescent misunderstanding of sectional times.

Hopefully its focus on exploring the many ways in which time, pace and performance can shape our understanding of a race, across both Flat and Jump racing, here and abroad, has been entertaining and instructive.

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This year isn’t the first time recently the Horris Hill has had to be moved to Newmarket because of waterlogging at Newbury – the 2019 and 2023 renewals won by Kenzai Warrior and Orne respectively were too.

The Horris Hill has an interesting history, being won by the subsequent Derby winner Charlottetown in 1965 and by the top-class horses Kris and Kalaglow in 1978 and 1980 (and would probably have been won by another Derby winner in the 1950s had Alcide not been ‘nobbled’ after winning the Lingfield Derby Trial, subsequently winning the Great Voltigeur by 12 lengths and the St leger by eight, but other than Mohaather who subsequently won the Sussex Stakes and Light Infantry who was second in the Jacques le Marois its recent winners have been largely far less memorable.

Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2005 with Hurricane Cat, a Storm Cat colt who flopped in the Irish 2000 and the French Derby the following season, but it’s not a race he targets and his three runners this year, who included the winner Bengal Tiger, were his first since 2019.

Bengal Tiger got a brief mention in this column last week having won the listed Prospect Stakes on Doncaster’s Futurity card in commanding fashion, but found this quick turnaround a much tougher assignment against an unusually large field, seeing off the only filly in the race Lex Victoria (who was able to be rerouted here after the race was opened up to fillies following the abandonment of the Radley Stakes) by a neck, albeit in a modest time (89) which, for all the leaders went through the first half mile getting on for five lengths faster, ended up barely any quicker than the filly Ibtekar managed in the novice just over an hour earlier.

Progressive profile he might have but other than his wide-margin win at Naas, a track where timefigures are seldom straightforward to return, there’s not too much in his efforts on the clock to make me think he ought to be near the top of his stables’ juvenile pecking order.

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Unlike the Horris Hill, the St Simon was abandoned in 2019 and did manage to be staged at Newbury in 2023 when Hamish won it for the first time, but it’s not a stranger to Newmarket having been run there in 1998 and 2001 when bad weather and false patches of ground caused the race to be moved.

Hamish’s trainer William Haggas relied this year on Al Aasy who was running in the contest for the third successive year but as in 2024 (when odds-on) and 2025 he ran poorly, tailed off for the second year running. The contest went to Aegean Prince who had a clear chance on form, having won the Old Borough Cup by seven-and-a-half lengths off an official mark of 99 on his only previous start this year, but the winning time was slow and I doubt he had to improve much with Faye Bramley continuing to do her best George Margarson impression with continual high-flyer Rebel Rocker not beaten far in fourth.

Neither the Bosra Sham Stakes nor the Montrose Stakes, both listed events for juvenile fillies, did anything particularly to impress on time but Siena Storm’s trainer Ed Walker looks to have a very promising youngster on his hands in the shape of Solo Quest who built on the considerable promise of his debut while paying a handsome compliment to the horse who beat him half-a-length that day and emerged with a 7lb bigger upgrade, Born This Way, when winning the first division of the seven-furlong novice by four lengths in a smart timefigure of 103 with the third horse another four-and-a-half lengths further back. 103 is the highest winning figure of the week either here or in Ireland, one of the best recorded in a juvenile novice event this year, and he’s surely bound for a Classic Trial next spring given he had this won so far out, and so readily too.

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I was slightly surprised and a tad disappointed to read last week of the upcoming closure of the Betfair Community or Forum as most users know it. I haven’t contributed to it for many years (one of my posts did elicit a typical response from then Racing Post editor Bruce Millington in his weekly column the following week) and only dip into it occasionally these days, but in its heyday when it was populated by geniuses and madcaps in equal measure it was an exceptionally educational as well as entertaining read even if it did sail very close to the wind on occasions.

Prufrock (a regular in the early days, particularly on racing analysis, ratings and handicapping), Jonjo (who started the excellent Clerkwatch thread where fictitious official going readings and the individuals behind them were regularly exposed), Janov, Davix, Johnn, Muqbil, Millhouse, Zilzal1, Parispike, Quito, Cubone, Barton Bank (an outstanding punter) and Yifter The Shifter (who often threatened to sort out other posters by meeting up in pub car parks) were just some of the regulars I became familiar with.

If asked to nominate my all-time favourite thread, though, it was one started by Cgull and named ‘The Top Ten International PROPUNTERS in The World Today’. It featured characters such as Wun Hoh Wun (the technology wizard with the edge in fast pics), Saul Bennt (if Saul is laying, I ain’t playing) and Jocky Zrace (has the northern turf meetings by the short and curlies). It’s wickedly funny and if you aren’t familiar with it, I recommend you track it down before the platform gets taken down on December 21.

Most of those forum names were at their most prolific when I was at my most active on the Exchange, which was the period just after LuvBet had closed down and the Exchange was flooded with new punters who were so captivated by the novelty of being able to lay horses that they failed to appreciate just how heavily the percentages were stacked against them with their focus seemingly more on the opportunity to lay and less on the mathematics underpinning it.

Billy Loughnane celebrates on Libertango

Thoughts from the Breeders' Cup

Back then the Exchange had unreal liquidity on all race meetings including the Breeders’ Cup and it was rather deflating to the more modest amounts traded this weekend. I don’t follow American racing as much now as I did then, and certainly not as much as I did after becoming involved in the Timeform US product and had to immerse myself in dirt racing for a while, but I always like to follow the meeting from a European perspective.

Libertango had the best form by some margin in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and won readily under a very well-judged ride from Billy Loughnane, coming home in a finishing speed of just over 102% from two furlongs out using the time from the gate when a figure around 101.5% would be considered optimal.

Her two defeats this year have come at the hands of subsequent Prix Morny winner Senorita Bonita in the Duchess Of Cambridge and the outstanding Sun Goddess in the Cheveley Park and the latter filly was in action in the Juvenile Fillies Turf where she faced 13 rivals including, most interestingly, the crack French filly and Jean-Luc Lagardere winner Amusingly.

Unfortunately, we were denied the clash their form promised by what I felt was a poor ride by Colin Keane on the latter, set far too much to do on a track this tight in a steadily-run race where the finishing speed came in at just over 108% for the winner, covering much more distance than Sun Goddess to boot, earning a bigger upgrade without being given the chance to show what she could do and no worse a prospect for next year after this than she was before.

Sun Goddess was a class apart in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Sun Goddess lands the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Haffner took the Juvenile Turf in gritty fashion, passing the post in a near 102% finishing speed when 103% is around optimum after French raider Avec Toi took the field along at a good pace, runner-up Folsom Blues (who had been second in the Lagardere) covering a fair amount more ground then the pair he split and bearing down late after running the penultimate furlong fastest of all and the last furlong only marginally second fastest.

Nunthorpe winner Bacio produced a trademark performance in the Turf Sprint, running to 125 on the Timeform scale at the end of a race he won by two lengths but had been four lengths clear with a furlong to run, worth upgrading by several pounds over the result given his last two furlongs came in at 24 seconds, the slowest of all the turf winners in the races under discussion and worthy of a rating in Ka Ying Rising territory if assessed on his relationship with those horses that tried to live up with him.

Surprisingly, the Filly And Mare Turf and the Mile both went to American-trained horses with hot favourite Blue Bolt never figuring in the former and Notable Speech running into traffic problems in the latter as the all-the-way winner Deterministic kicked off the final bend just as the former 2000 Guineas winner was forced to switch wide, his fast finish - 22.95 for the last two furlongs compared to 23.63 for the winner – giving him an upgrade that would have seen him run out a comfortable winner in happier circumstances.

Benvenuto Cellini wins the Breeders' Cup Turf

The Turf was dominated by European raiders, not unexpectedly, with Benvenuto Cellini produced from off the pace by Ryan Moore to beat Map Of Stars who came from even further back, the pair running an identical last two-furlong time according to the tracking data.

That translates into a bigger if still small upgrade for the runner-up, though the third home Diamond Necklace for me deserves as much credit as any, drawn wide again as in the Arc when Benvenuto Cellini was ninth, taking a keen hold for a long way and covering a lot more distance the pair who beat her, both of whom had the important rail-saving ride round the sharp home turn, paying in the end for running the fastest section from five out to three out before coming wide.

Her form this year stands up to close scrutiny and I’ve a feeling if she stays in training we’ll see an even better filly next season. By which time I will be three months into retirement. Keep well everybody.