Timefigure analysis from Graeme North on Stage Star and the other big winners

Only a few signs of the Willie Mullins juggernaut so far, and little news just yet of Marine Nationale (who made his autumnal reappearance last season in the middle of October) come to that, but the latest weekend at least saw the reappearance of arguably the biggest talking horse of the last jumps season, Facile Vega, the horse the aforementioned Marine Nationale downed at Cheltenham, and with several other big names getting their heads in front on either side of the Irish Sea the jumps season is just hotting up nicely ahead of this weekend’s Betfair Chase and the return of Constitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth.

She’s not a ‘big’ name yet and it remains to be seen what her future holds but Dysart Enos has a hefty reputation and last season’s unbeaten Grade 2 Aintree bumper winner made a satisfactory debut over hurdles at Huntingdon at the start of last week. As short as 1/7 at the off in the absence of any credible opposition, she jumped several hurdles far too big in a race run at just a steady gallop (her timefigure was a lowly 76) but she showed a nice turn of foot at the business end of the race and by my calculations the time she recorded over the last three hurdles would equate to something closer to 125.

That figure suggests the large P Timeform have awarded her – given to horses who are expected to leave their form well behind – is a well deserved and I'm sure a stiffer test and stronger gallop will see her to better effect,.

Thursday saw a couple of interesting winning novice hurdlers in the shape of Matterhorn and Panjari at Taunton with the former doing much the better on the clock (timefigure 125, backed up his times over the last three hurdles despite being unextended) but if there was a properly smart prospect on show in the division it came in Ireland at Punchestown where It’s For Me won his first start over hurdles.

Sent off odds on in a first-time hood in what was a very warm race with last season’s Triumph fifth Ascending and Mighty Potter’s full brother Caldwell Potter in opposition, It’s For Me travelled strongly throughout and found plenty when challenged, posting an ordinary 107 timefigure on the face of things but returning finishing fractions from each of the last three hurdles that suggest that this performance is sectionally more akin to 140 or thereabouts. Second guessing Willie Mullins isn’t something that pays off too often, but last year’s Champion Bumper fifth was too keen under Jody Townend in the Punchestown equivalent and though he won a point to point around Loughanmore he seems to me likely to prove best at the minimum trip for now.

Mixed fortunes for champion bumper pair

One of the horses that finished ahead of It’s For Me in the Champion Bumper was Captain Teague and he was expected to win the Grade 2 Hurdle at Cheltenham formerly known as the Hyde the following day but met an unexpected reverse at the hands of the unconsidered Minella Missile.

Some reports say Captain Teague’s rider Harry Cobden was given a rollicking by Paul Nicholls afterwards for not kicking on sooner and making the race even more attritional than it had already become, but a 131 winning timefigure suggests he’s have been hard pressed to make the race even more of a test of stamina and if Cobden did anything wrong as I saw, it was keeping Captain Teague too wide, a lesson that wasn’t lost on the rider as events 24 hours later were to show.

Despite the strong pace, given that the three protagonists – smart Irish challenger The Big Doyen was the other one – still managed to come home faster from each of the last three hurdles than either the two other handicap winners (off BHA marks of 122 and 121, the latter over two miles to boot) on the day managed, I’d say there’s a very good chance this form is even better than it looks, as much as 138 maybe on sectionals. Given the wide course he took and the 5lb he was conceding to the winner it strikes me Captain Teague seems to me to have enhanced his Challow Hurdle prospects and not dented them.

Saturday’s Cheltenham card started off with a taking effort by Burdett Road who retained his unbeaten record in the opening JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial and was promptly cut to 7/1 favourite for the main event itself.

A race that wasn’t strongly run (timefigure just 100) was always going to play into the hands of a Royal Ascot winner and he had far too much of a turn of foot for his rivals among whom the apparent form pick Milan Tino (already placed in a Grade 2 in France) who looked in need of a much stiffest rest of stamina on his first run away from Auteuil. Burdett Road’s times from each of the last three hurdles were much quicker than those posted by Buddy One and Springwell Bay later in the afternoon and from a sectional perspective I’d rate this nearer 133.

That might set the standard for now in what has admittedly been a weak division so far, but with horses behind him in second and fourth who were rated by Timeform just 71 and 69 on the Flat I wouldn’t be getting carried away not least as his hurdling needs a lot of attention.

I’ve already had a couple of bets in this market in the form of Sir Gino and Salvator Mundi who finished well clear of two next-time-out winners at Auteuil earlier this year and have joined Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins respectively.

Wildcard for the Stayers' Hurdle?

Progressive Irish raider Buddy One posted a 151 timefigure in the long-distance handicap. The field he beat was a bit older than it usually is in this race, but such is his rate of progress – he could be called the winner a long way out here - he might end up creeping into the Stayers’ Hurdle picture as Flooring Porter did a few years ago out of handicaps rather than end up in the Pertemps which might seem the more obvious option right now.

Undoubtedly star of the show on the Cheltenham card, however, was Stage Star who shrugged off 11-10 and a BHA mark of 155 as well as a significant last-fence blunder in the Paddy Power Gold Cup to beat Notlongtillmay by even further than he had in the Turners while conceding him weight too.

A 164 timefigure is easily a career best and puts him bang there in the Ryanair picture on the face of it, but his all-or-nothing profile isn’t one that persuades me the 4/1 he is now trading at for that race represents value taking on even better quality horses than he has met so far at level weights.

What’s more, it seemed to me that he got an absolutely pinpoint ride scaping the paint all the way whereas plenty of his rivals, chiefly the runner-up as well as The Real Whacker who ended up getting pulled up, covered significantly more ground out wide. Ground loss isn’t equal in that it is much less significant in steadily-run races than it is in strongly-run ones and with no let-up in the gallop in the Paddy Power hugging the rail on a circuit of the Old Course at Cheltenham as opposed to taking a line even just 5yds off it adds approximately seven lengths to distance covered. That’s not to say I’m doubting Stage Star’s effort at all, but I’d be inclined to mark up Notlongtillmay’s performance quite a bit.

Over at Navan, their newly inaugurated two-day ‘Festival’ got off to an interesting start with the hurdling debut of Stellar Story whose tow wins in three starts in bumpers had included a defeat of Ile Atlantique. His winning circuit time (time taken to run from the final flight on the penultimate circuit to the winning line last time round) was the slowest of all the hurdles races on the day but not by much and when you concentrate on his figures from the third last hurdle and then factor in he carried 9lb more than Bob Olinger, for example, then there are good grounds for upgrading his performance on the clock from a bare 107 timefigure to around 132.

At this stage of the season it’s not always easy to know where some of these promising novices will end up but he looked an out and out galloper who’ll almost certainly be better over three miles.

What’s Up Darling (103) didn’t pull up any trees on the clock in the Grade 3 Novice Hurdle and neither did Bob Olinger (97) in the Grade 2 Lismullen, not that will have bothered the latter's connections who must have been delighted to finally get his head back in front. He came home from the third last two and a half seconds faster than the other hurdle winners and had every chance to throw in the towel after getting headed after the last but fought back well.

I’m not sure what the future holds for him over hurdles but given this renaissance there’s hope that one-time stable star and favourite of this column A Plus Tard might yet be coaxed back to his brilliant best.

Henry de Bromhead won the following race too, the Grade 2 Bar One Racing Fortria Chase, with Captain Guinness who put up his most convincing performance yet. Dysart Dynamo looked less of a tearaway than he had last spring but it didn’t result in an improved performance whereas Captain Guinness (who had won this race last year) looked an improved model with a 164 timefigure, his best yet.

Even so, second places subsequently last season behind Blue Lord, Energumene and Jonbon suggest Captain Guinness still has more to do to win at the top level but on the positive side his jumping was more electric than it’s ever been and that might yet help him eke out more improvement.

In contrast, Facile Vega’s jumping perhaps not unexpectedly lacked polish in what was the sort of deep beginners chase that racecourses over here can only dream about. He ran the final circuit around eight seconds slower than Captain Guinness and despite that wasn’t much faster from any of the last three fences either, but once he was asked to lengthen after the last he ran away quite takingly from the admittedly considerately-handled 2023 Supreme fourth Inthepocket. In behind, Spillane’s Tower and Dreal Deal both made good ground in the hottest part of the race and look ones for handicaps.

El Fabiolo still the one to beat

Mention of Jonbon brings me round to the Shloer Chase, Sunday’s feature at Cheltenham, which he won by nine and a half lengths from Edwardstone. On the face of it that’s top-class form but neither his overall timefigure (153) nor sectionals really back that assessment up and with the runner-up never seriously put in the race and neither Nube Negra nor Editeur du Gite (now soundly beaten in his last four races) showing up I’d be taking a more reserved view for now for all he looked impressive.

Even so, any of the domestic top two-mile chases before the Festival in what looks a deeply uncompetitive division are surely his for the taking but even then I don’t see any reason why he should turn Arkle tables on El Fabiolo and hopefully he’ll get an entry in the Ryanair.

Over at Navan, American Mike (105) made a satisfactory chasing debut but the Gordon Elliott-dominated Troytown once again showed the advantage of a ground-saving inside run with Coko Beach (158) kept there while such as Thedevilscoachman and Ain’t That A Shame couldn’t maintain their runs after making headway out wide on the uphill climb to the home turn. Talking horses Kala Conti (109) and Croke Park (93) won well enough but will face much stiffer tasks ahead.

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