Timefigure analysis from Graeme North including Desert Crown, Hukum and Luxembourg
Our timefigure guru is back from holiday and reviews the top-class action of the past week, including Hukum's defeat of Desert Crown, plus he puts forward a French Derby fancy.
Nice as it was to get away to Croatia again – largely still undiscovered and well worth a visit if you haven’t been, though I wouldn’t recommend spending more than a day in Game Of Thrones-riddled Dubrovnik, not least when there is an much less frenetic alternative on a smaller scale in Korcula Town on the island of Korcula further on the way to Split - it was still good to get back to some quality Flat action with Sandown’s Brigadier Gerard card a more interesting one than it often is seeing as it featured the long-awaited reappearance of the most recent Derby winner Desert Crown.
As things turned out, Desert Crown, who had been on the sidelines since Epsom with a foot injury, lost his unbeaten record and in doing so became the joint-fifth shortest-priced favourite in Britain this year to get turned over. That said, there was little discredit in losing out to another horse who had also been absent since that same Derby meeting, the Coronation Cup winner Hukum, in what was a fascinating tactical affair.
The race didn’t pull up any trees on the clock – the timefigure for both Hukum and Desert Crown was just 84 – but only because they pottered through the first half-mile in a time more than four seconds slower than the opening 0-75 handicap according to Course Track. When a race is run as steadily early on as the Brigadier Gerard was and develops into something of a sprint for home, the closer to the winning line the more helpful and revealing sectionals are. Calculating upgrades from three out, two out and the furlong pole using the Course Track sectionals sways the advantage increasingly in favour of Hukum, as much as 8lb late on, and that in spite of being denied a clear run while Desert Crown had a clear run down the outside.
Beforehand, Hukum wouldn’t have been considered ideally suited by a steadily-run mile and a quarter, but the one-time St Leger fifth and full brother to Baaeed is clearly more versatile than his career so far suggests and he’s clearly going to be a big player from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half this summer. Nearly a year on, the 2022 Derby doesn’t look a vintage renewal, but Desert Crown won that contest easing down in a 119 timefigure and just one run on it’s too early to be pegging him down.
On the same card, Elite Status looked a smart two-year-old when winning the Racehorse Lotto National Stakes and a 109 timefigure puts him at the head of the 2023 juvenile rankings along with wide-margin Ripon winner Asadna.
An easy winner at Doncaster on his debut, Elite Status had been talked up beforehand by his trainer Karl Burke, who not only knows a fast two-year-old when he sees one but trained Elite Status’ sire Havana Grey to win this same race in 2017, and he looked every bit as good as his trainer said by beating his stable-companion World Of Darcy by five lengths.
Winning a National Stakes by that sort of distance (only Excellent Art in 2006, when Timeform called the ground heavy, has won by further this century) in a timefigure like he recorded might suggest Elite Status already has a race at Royal Ascot with his name on it, but things are never quite that straightforward. In the last 20 tears, the three other two-year-olds that recorded timefigures of 108 or more when winning this race – Monsieur Chevalier in 2009, Sir Prancealot in 2012 and King Of Rooks in 2015 – were all beaten at Royal Ascot, with only King Of Rooks making the first three, although Monsieur Chevalier (Molecomb) and Sir Prancealot (Flying Childers) did win pattern races later in the season.
If there’s a pattern here it’s probably that Elite Status, like those other youngsters who were out-and-out sprinters and who couldn’t stretch out to a mile like Excellent Art did, is already somewhere near the peak of his ability and whether that will translate into a Royal Ascot success remains to be seen. The dam of Elite Status, Dotted Swiss, was a sprinter and Havana Grey has had only two winners to date (and both at a lowly level) at a mile, so I’d imagine he’s unlikely to be campaigned beyond six furlongs this season.
Elite Status wasn’t the only youngster to post a smart timefigure last week, with Barnwell Boy running a 97 at Goodwood, Native American posting a 94 at York and Born To Rock, like the previous two making her debut, clocking a 91 at Yarmouth.
Barnwell Boy is one of just 43 two-year-olds since 2010 who have posted a timefigure of 97 or higher on their debut and he is the fourth horse (and third from his stable) to achieve that feat at Goodwood in that same timeframe. Given the others include the 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder, the omens for Barnwell Boy, by Starspangledbanner out of a Frankel mare, might be said to be quite promising, though it should be pointed out that neither of the other winners from the Johnston stable, Dee Ex Bee and Natalie’s Joy, made any significant immediate improvement, for all the former ended up developing into a high-class stayer.
Jane Chapple-Hyam looks to have a smart filly on her hands in the shape of Born To Rock, a six-figure Breeze-Up purchase who dispatched several other expensive similar sorts with ease at Yarmouth, but I’d like to see Native American confirm his debut effort before accepting he might be the real deal. There looked to be a major stand-side bias at play at York on Saturday and, racing closest to the rail, he looked an unlikely winner for much of the way despite that, let alone one who would go on to win by over five lengths.
Irritatingly, there was also a heavy rail bias at Haydock which was presumably the result of copious amounts of water applied to the track before and during the three-day meeting. The feature Betfred-sponsored sprints, the Sandy Lane Stakes and the Temple Stakes, were won by Little Big Bear and Dramatised in timefigures of 112 and 106 respectively, the latter coming along with a 9lb upgrade, but given that virtually everything that raced away from the stand rail was disadvantaged to varying degrees (there might as well have been differing going descriptions for the stand rail and far rail) I’d be wary of these results standing firm at Ascot in a few weeks’ time.
Three days of action at the Curragh at the weekend saw all the Group races shoehorned into the last two days. The feature event on Saturday was the Irish 2000 Guineas which attracted Royal Scotsman, Hi Royal and Galeron from the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, but below-par efforts from the first two with the race going to one who had won a handicap off a mark of just 97 two starts previously casts more doubts over the quality of the three-year-old milers.
The race provided a twelfth race win for trainer Aidan O’Brien and his winner Paddington emerges with an overall time rating of 118 after factoring in a 27lb upgrade from three furlongs out. Always well placed in a race in which nothing challenged from off the pace, Paddington was never stronger than at the finish and it may be given his stamina-packed pedigree that the Eclipse is a better fit for him than the St James’s Palace Stakes.
Givemethebeatboys put up a useful performance on the clock to win what looked a well-contested Marble Hill Stakes, his overall time performance coming in at 103 after sectionals are incorporated, though the runner-up Noche Magica might be the better short-term Ascot prospect given he emerged with a 4lb bigger upgrade but couldn’t quite hold on after quickening to the front after travelling strongly.
Art Power continued his love affair with Ireland – he’s unbeaten in four starts there - with an easy win in the Greenland Stakes and a 115 timefigure is just 2lb shy of the best he’s posted.
Sunday’s Curragh card featured two Group 1s, the Gold Cup and the Irish 1000 Guineas, both sponsored by Tattersalls, as well as the Group 2 Lanwades Stud Stakes and the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes.
Unlike in the 2000 Guineas the previous day, the Newmarket runner-up Tahiyra turned up in good form and ran her race, albeit not landing prohibitive odds quite as easily as the price would suggest, pushed all the way to a 111 timefigure, upgraded to 116 after a 5lb upgrade is incorporated, by the Newmarket sixth Meditate (comes out at 111) and surprise 150-1 package Comhra who seemed galvanised by first-time cheekpieces.
Earlier in the afternoon, the 2022 Irish Champion winner Luxembourg got off the mark for the season in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (watch replay below). A 15lb upgrade on the top of a 115 timefigure suggests Luxembourg has finally developed into the top-class performer his reappearance third in last year’s 2000 Guineas suggested he would, eclipsing the 123 he posted in the Irish Champion, and both he and runner-up Bay Bridge (overall time rating 128) may well head to Ascot for what promises to be a fascinating Prince Of Wales’s Stakes if all the principals turn up.
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That number would seem unlikely now to include the 2022 Eclipse and French Derby winner Vadeni who wasn’t himself for the second start in succession, found to be coughing after trailing home fifth.
Just Beautiful took the Lanwades in a 106 timefigure, though there was little between her and runner-up Jumbly on overall time ratings once upgrades are taken into account, while Teutates was thrown out after passing the post first in the Gallinule in a modest 97 timefigure, upgraded to an only slightly less underwhelming 101 once his last three furlongs is factored in. Drumroll was awarded the race.
Mention of Vadeni reminds me that it’s the Prix du Jockey-Club again this weekend. Ante-post favourite is Big Rock, whose victory in the heavy-ground Prix de Guiche I covered here three weeks ago.
Easily the most interesting horse to my eye is not him – he hadn’t been as impressive on faster ground previously – but Feed The Flame who is unbeaten in two starts and beat the subsequent Group 3 Prix Hocquart winner First Minister with any amount in hand on his last start at Longchamp.
In both those wins he ran the penultimate furlong in under 11 seconds, on ground Timeform called soft last time out, and he ran the fastest final 200m in that race too despite his rider Christophe Soumillon sitting motionless. He still needs to be supplemented on Wednesday, but in a weak-looking renewal with no obvious Vadeni, St Mark’s Basilica or Mishriff among the entries, I can see him starting much shorter than his current 11-2 on the day to give his trainer Pascal Bary, whose latest French Derby success came with Study Of Man in 2018, a seventh win in the race.
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