Timefigure analysis from Graeme North and Epsom Dash comment
Timefigure expert Graeme North assesses the action from Derby weekend and has his say on the controversy surrounding the start to the Epsom Dash.
It might have been a weekend of two Derbys and an Oaks across Britain and France but the overwhelming topic of discussion on Racing Twitter, one that was still rumbling on as this column was being finalised on Tuesday morning, was not as might have been anticipated Auguste Rodin’s redemption in the Derby but the decision by the Epsom stewards to leave alone the result of the Aston Martin “Dash” despite incontrovertible evidence that some stalls opened later than others. After studying the footage at normal speed the raceday stewards concluded that ‘no horse had been significantly impacted compared to the balance of the field’. That’s a conclusion that beggars belief.
Video stills of the start make it very clear that stalls 16 (most notably), 18, 19 and 20 were disadvantaged to varying degrees with their stalls still to open fully (16 barely at all) as the others were already on their way, while later headcam footage to surface confirms the race was over pretty much straight away over the fastest five furlongs in the country for one of the runners.
The leaders got to the path at the top of the straight over three furlongs from home marginally quicker (around 0.08 seconds by my calculations) in the Dash than they did in the earlier 3yo Dash but unlike that contest where ten of a closely-bunched 14-runner field had at least two hooves on the path at that point, unsurprisingly only six of an already-well-strung-out 20-strong field fulfilled that criteria in the Dash with the closest of the quartet affected, Vintage Clarets, already getting on for five lengths off the leader.
Since 2015, only one of the 41 horses who have contested a five-furlong handicap at Epsom and who were awarded an ‘s’ symbol in their internal horse ledger by Timeform denoting a slow start ended up winning (Majestic Hero). Predictably, none of the quartet, who were all sent off at 11/1 or shorter and included the 6/1 favourite Live In The Moment, whose rider also briefly lost his iron, ever threated to get into contention.
To conclude that their chances weren’t affected materially by the bungled start on a downhill five furlongs where early position is king - in the same time period in the same races none of the 42 horses who Timeform awarded an EPF of 5, denoting a position early in the race at the back of the field, went on to win with only five making the first three – is, as I see it, complete tosh. Stalls opening late in a two-mile race at Ascot is a very different scenario to a late opening on a downhill five furlongs at Epsom on very fast ground and my sympathies lay with the connections of the four horses affected and those who backed them.
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The Dash and some of the comment and inaction surrounding it might have been a farce, but the rest of the two-day Derby meeting was a good watch and kicked off on Friday with the Woodcote Stakes over six furlongs and three yards on what was thankfully fast summer good-to-firm ground after some overzealous watering had heavily influenced results at Haydock and to a lesser extent York the previous weekend.
Bobsleigh, an inappropriately-named winner given the conditions, ran out a ready winner of the Woodcote in an up-to-standard 95 timefigure, scoring with a bit to spare, but even so he’ll have to step up a fair bit to feature at Royal Ascot in a couple of weeks’ time and even then wouldn’t be a sure thing to confirm placings with the third horse Haatem who had won a maiden at Bath by six lengths on his previous start and might well have followed up here had he not been so slowly away and then been short of room when coming with his challenge.
Cadillac was the star of the show in the three handicaps on the card, winning the feature of that trio in a smart and career-best 117 timefigure, so eclipsing his previous best of 115 which he recorded in the Wolferton Stakes (likely to be his target again) at Royal Ascot last year when trained by Jessica Harrington, but the afternoon was all about the two Group 1s, the Dahlbury Coronation Cup and the Betfred Oaks.
The Coronation Cup was the much quicker race of the pair, both run over an extra 14 yards incidentally, with Emily Upjohn running the distance getting on for nearly three seconds faster than Soul Sister managed an hour later.
Emily Upjohn’s 2m 33.78 winning time is the fourth fastest this century (though some races in that time frame have had no added yardage and added yardage has only fairly recently been a requisite of raceday information) and converts to a winning timefigure of 114, which is also the joint fourth-fastest in that period and gets edged up to 115 after a small sectional upgrade is incorporated.
It’s fair to say the emphasis was more on speed than stamina at the trip with the early fractions slower than they were in the Oaks, and Emily Upjohn, who right now looks the one to beat in the King George at Ascot next month, had far too much of that for the Irish Derby winner and Arc sixth Westover who continues to give the impression he might have more in his locker upped another couple of furlongs or more in trip.
Soul Sister landed what looked a substandard Oaks in a 101 timefigure, albeit in decent enough style. Despite being settled off the pace, Soul Sister still covered the first half mile over half a second faster than Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup so no surprise then, given that scenario, she ran the final three furlongs getting on for two and a half seconds slower as she, wide-margin Cheshire Oaks winner Savethelastdance (who never looked as happy to me on ground much faster than it had been at Chester) and the 1000 Guineas fourth Caernarfon came well clear of the remainder.
Savethelastdance emerges with a 2lb better upgrade than Soul Sister as calculated by Timeform and might give her more of a race on much softer ground, but the winner had things in control some way out and could, it’s not unreasonable to imagine. have pulled out a fair bit more had it been required.
Despite 5mm of watering applied to the entire track bar the first two furlongs of the five-furlong course after racing on Friday, the ground at Saturday, at least in the straight, rode faster than the preceding day and was by my calculations faster than any other meeting held at the track since August 2019.
Regal Reality kicked proceedings off in the Diomed Stakes and won a fair bit more readily than the three-quarter length winning margin implies, probably value for more like three lengths, but even then a 93 overall timerating is slightly underwhelming. Much the same could be said about the World Pool betting totals for the Derby which were down 36% on the previous year after the start for the fourth Classic was moved forward to 1.30pm to avoid a clash with the FA Cup Final, but at least the big race served up a thrilling finish with the first two horses, 2000 Guineas flop Auguste Rodin and King of Steel, pulling almost five lengths clear of the Dante runner-up White Birch.
A 118 timefigure is unexceptional by Derby standards – only five renewals this century has seen the winner awarded a lower figure – after the gallop set by the winner’s stable-companions Adelaide River and San Antonio hadn’t been that strong, and though the first two deserve some credit for pulling so far clear in the circumstances it seemed to me that, much like the renewal stolen by Serpentine, several horses would have fared better themselves had they been kept closer in contention.
Chief among those were White Birch and Lingfield Derby trial runner-up and eventual sixth Waipiro as well as the seventh Artistic Star who forfeited a good early position and seemed to get lost midrace but ended up running the fourth fastest last furlong according to Course track.
Easily the youngest horse in the line-up (he was born on May 27th whereas Auguste Rodin and King of Steel were foaled on January 26th and February 6th respectively) he looks the potentially biggest improver from the Derby going forward.
Prosperous Voyage won the only other pattern event on the card to give Artistic Star’s trainer Ralph Beckett some consolation. She was one of four in the field who had contested the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket earlier in the season but turned around that form with a fair bit in hand under these much quicker conditions as her Group 1 level form suggested she would, though a 79 timefigure suggests the bare form behind the winner might not play out the same another day.
The ground was also fast across at Chantilly where Ace Impact took the Qatar Prix du Jockey Club in the fastest time since the race distance was reduced to 2100m in 2005, so eclipsing the record set by Sottsaas in 2019 who, like Ace Impact, is one of five winners of the race Jean-Claude Rouget has trained in the last eight years.
The last winner of the Jockey Club not to go onto further Group 1 success was Study Of Man who won a crowded-finish and substandard renewal in 2018, so the omens for further top level wins for Ace Impact, whose three-and-a-half length winning margin is second only to Vadeni’s five-length margin last season, are promising.
A blistering 34.01 last 600m wasn’t quite as fast as the 33.32 Simca Mille managed in the much more steadily-run Grand Prix de Chantilly earlier in the afternoon but was far too hot for the opposition and was over a second faster (roughly six lengths) than the French 2000 Guineas winner and third-placed Marhaba Ya Sanafi could muster as he stormed clear in impressive style.
Timeform don’t return timefigures from Chantilly but putting the finishing fractions through an internal universal finishing speed model pretty much suggests that ‘what you saw was what you got’ on the day with perhaps Big Rock worth a couple of pounds upgrade for making an early move.
There’s little doubt that Ace Impact is fully worth the 125p rating he has been awarded by Timeform and having only begun his career in January there’s every chance he’ll improve further.
Feed The Flame, the horse I mentioned in this column last week, still looks a likely improver too, probably having learned very little from winning both his races on the bridle, albeit from a subsequent Group 3 winner in the second of them.
The aforementioned Simca Mille, one of the most improved three-year-olds in France last year, wasn’t made to work hard to win his second Group race of the season, his upgrade of around 28lb higher than any of his rivals despite his rider taking things easy, and he looks set for a productive autumn campaign.
Later on the card Perdika landed the listed Prix Marchand d’Or for George Boughey without seemingly having to improve but neither Karl Burke’s Marshman nor Clive Cox’s Get Ahead were able to outrun the home-trained Game Run in the Group 2 Prix de Gros-Chene, neither having any apparent excuse in a well-run race (negligible upgrade) behind a fast-improving sprinter who was running in handicaps just a couple of months ago.
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