Timefigure analysis for Cheltenham Festival after Newbury, Warwick, Naas and Navan

Astute readers of this column might be surprised to be reading this week’s review given I had mentioned a couple of weeks back I would be away for a while on account of a hip replacement. That procedure has been put back to March 17, meaning I’ll be able to write a weekly review up to and including Cheltenham week.

Whether I’ll be able to double up at Aintree this year as some equine athletes might be doing, seeing as the two meetings are just 19 days apart, as trainer Dan Skelton this week argued heatedly on Luck On Sunday was demonstrably not in the interests of the sport more widely but owners more predominantly, remains open to doubt.

Skelton argued with some conviction that when the two main British spring Festivals come so close together it’s usually a question of either/or instead of both because of several factors, with the pace at which races are run nowadays being high amongst them, but it seems to me having looked at the data (which he didn’t have to hand) subsequently the argument is inconclusive.

Since 2014, taken for the simple reason it’s the same starting point for the remainder of this review, of the 79 horses who have attempted to win a Grade 1 race at Aintree 20 days or less since their last run, 12 (evenly split between hurdles and fences) have won at a success rate of over 15% which is more than three times the success rate that horses attempting the same managed at the Cheltenham Festival, none which came over fences (the shortest date range a chaser has managed to overcome (Duc Des Genievres in the 2019 Arkle) is 24 days).

Skelton’s view might be coloured by is own experiences, not that his record at that level is a bad one; of his three runners to have contested a Grade 1 at Aintree 20 days or less since their last run, all have reached the frame without winning, with two of them beaten less than two lengths. Flesh out that query to include all his runners at Aintree within 20 days of their last run, however, some of whom might have gone there more hopeful than confident given their starting prices, and it reads no winners from 14 runners with none of the additional 11 managing to finish closer than eighth. Given his comments, Skelton’s approach this year will be interesting to watch.

Given the news that Sir Gino is now out for the season after what was reportedly a routine cut haemorrhaged rapidly into something that will force him to miss Cheltenham for the second successive season, Unibet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase winner L’Eau Du Sud is one of the horses Skelton might consider running at Aintree in the Maghull as well as Cheltenham so long as he comes through the Arkle (for which he now a general 5/1 shot behind Majborough) fit and well given Irish challengers, the Grand National apart, don’t really make Aintree their priority.

L’Eau Du Sud, last year’s Betfair Hurdle runner-up, is unbeaten over fences and already has a win at Cheltenham to his name, but though he ran a third career-best (153) in succession on the clock in the Kingmaker, to me at least he didn’t enhance his Arkle prospects with what I saw as verging on an all-out success against a horse who was tailed off behind Sir Gino when falling on his only start over fences to date yet appeared to pretty much match his hurdles form if this run is taken at face value.

True it was his first race for nine weeks and because of that L’Eau Du Sud might have been feeling the effects of drawing five lengths clear of Rubaud approaching the home turn, but I don’t doubt Majborough (who beat Touch Me Not, the horse who was second to L’Eau Du Sud in the Henry VIII, by three times as far at the Dublin Racing Festival) could have won far more easily. All the same, the fluent-jumping L’Eau Du Sud will be difficult to keep out of the places in what looks likely now to be a very small field for the Arkle with it not inconceivable that no more than five will take part as happened in both 2018 and 2021.

Despite being the ‘lesser’ of the two prominent Saturday fixtures just gone, Warwick has proved to be a better pointer to Cheltenham with six of its winners or runners-up since 2014 going on to score at Cheltenham in the same year compared to five from Newbury. Two of those subsequent Cheltenham winners, Sky Pirate and Edwardstone, also took in the Kingmaker, the former before his win in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual and not the Arkle, but more relevant even than that contest to future events has been the Mares’ Hurdle which might only have ‘listed’ status but has been the springboard for Glens Melody in 2015, Indefatigable in 2020 and Marie’s Rock in 2022.

Given that Glen’s Melody and Marie’s Rock scored in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham at 6/1 and 18/1 respectively while Indefatigable won the Martin Pipe at 25/1, the latest edition perhaps ought not to be written off out of hand despite the winner Royale Margaux scoring in a modest 92 timefigure after nearest challenger You Wear It Well crashed out at the last.

That said, both Royale Margaux and runner-up Sunday Soldier had been beaten on their previous starts off marks of 120 and 121 respectively which puts into even clearer perspective the sorry effort of Gala Marceau who went backwards last year from a belated reappearance, finishing sixth in the Dawn Run, and arguably performed a fair bit worse here following yet another delayed reappearance.

Newbury’s meeting might have produced less subsequent Cheltenham winners than Warwick but two subsequent Gold Cup winners (Coneygree, Native River) in the period under review as well as a Champion Chase winner (Altior), Arkle winner (Altior again) and Champion Bumper winner (Ballyandy) have at least been achieved at a higher level.

What those wins have in common, of course, none of which were achieved after 2018, is that they were all achieved before the recent upsurge in Irish domination and though the absent Sir Gino might have ended up bucking the trend it's hard to get excited about the Cheltenham prospects of any of Newbury’s latest protagonists on a William Hill-sponsored card, not least those from the Denman Chase.

Hitman finished second for the third year running, not quite able to reach the 148 and 143 timefigures he had posted in the same race in the previous two seasons, which doesn’t say a great deal for those behind him, all of whom except the increasingly moody Ga Law are either in the veteran stage or on the downgrade, including his own stable-companion Bravemansgame whose form has dropped off alarmingly in the last 12 months.

In the circumstances it was no surprise that the youngest horse in the line-up, Djelo, was able to run out a convincing winner despite having finished a well-beaten second himself behind Protektorat (who he’d beaten readily enough the time before in the Peterborough Chase) in the latest Fleur De Lys Chase at Windsor. Djelo was third in the Golden Miller at Cheltenham last year when a 25/1 shot, finishing behind Ginny’s Destiny on whom he has already turned the tables this season, and looks set to stay at that trip again this year in the Ryanair despite this effort suggesting the Gold Cup trip wouldn’t be beyond him.

The William Hill Hurdle (formerly the Betfair Hurdle and Tote Gold Trophy) went to Joyeuse who won in a 131 timefigure in the style of one absolutely thrown in despite a 4lb rise for her Cheltenham second in December, but she’s reportedly not going to the Festival unlike the winner of the Game Spirit, Master Chewy, who became the latest winner of the contest after Edwardstone in 2024 yet rather oddly seems set to contest the Ryanair over a trip he hasn’t tried since being brought back successfully to two miles over fences in 2023.

There was some speculation that both his stablemate Matata and Edwardstone had done a bit too much mid race but while that accusation could be aimed at Matata if somewhat half-heartedly, I don’t think it could be levelled against Edwardstone who ran only one of the last eight furlongs either fastest or second fastest with that furlong being the first of the eight in the last mile.

A 147 timefigure is 2lb lower than Master Chewy has run on several occasions, so exactly how much if anything he needed to beat the progressive handicapper Libberty Hunter (who’d finished in front of him at Cheltenham in January) is open to question, while also casting a long shadow on the form of Matata’s handicap win at Windsor under top weight when conceding upwards of 10lb all round.

On that related point, exactly how good Edwardstone is currently - and Jonbon too, given the pair have met numerous times over the past two seasons - is also debateable. It’s possible he might not have got over a tough race in the well-run Clarence House three weeks earlier but three defeats this season of 10 lengths or more in five starts doesn’t shout top-class performer any longer and an inability to win a handicap at Kempton in December when three of his rivals, one of which won, were out of the handicap and his nearest rival in the weights failed to compete suggests he’s a fair way off the Edwardstone of old.

Over in Ireland

Across at Naas, the opening rated hurdle, so often a pinpoint Fred Winter or Boodles pointer in recent years, went to Baccanhalian in a smart 127 timefigure, though the runner-up Murcia, who’d been pitched in at the deep end in a Grade 2 on her Irish debut at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and ended up too keen without her usual tongue strap, looked a potentially big improver given she got back in the field after some scrimmaging at the third but flew home, running the last two furlongs 0.41 seconds and then 0.66 seconds (over five lengths combined) than the winner according to Course Track.

Impressive though those sectionals were, they weren’t as quick as those posted by the impressive Lovely Hurling (timefigure 126) in the maiden hurdle with his being all the more impressive seeing as he wrapped things up quickly without being at all hard ridden. He looks a very smart novice.

The limited Opera Hat Mares Chase went to former winner Dinoblue who got the better of Allegorie De Vassy (who steered a much wider course) by a neck in a 153 timefigure, 2lb shy of her best and a very good effort considering she was conceding 6lb; the concluding hunter chase, often used as a warm-up for Billaway before his Cheltenham forays, saw something of a surprise with Ryehill showing much improved form to score in a 120 time.

There wasn’t much to get excited about on the clock at Navan on Sunday, either. Better Days Ahead won the feature Ten Up Novice Chase in a modest 103 timefigure but would surely have been trounced by his stable-mate Stellar Story had the latter not been settled so far off the steady pace with the 5lb the winner received neither here nor there in the circumstances.

The versatile Maxxum took the Boyne Hurdle readily by four lengths in yet another demonstration seemingly the best of the Irish (much like the British) staying hurdlers are a youngish bunch; while the listed novice hurdle, won last year by Brighterdaysahead, went decisively to Tareze (99 timefigure) despite the field being well bunched for a long way in a sign the Henry de Bromhead stable is emerging from the doldrums.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.