Timefigure analysis following the 2026 Randox Grand National meeting at Aintree

Elliott excels at Aintree again

With the Flat season proper finally upon us, and a defeat of leading Derby fancy Pierre Bonnard already to ponder, this is the last column focused primarily on action over jumps until next winter and with plenty of Grade 1 action to get stuck into, I’ll dive straight into events from Aintree last Thursday.

Gordon Elliott might not have had the Cheltenham he wanted but he has a good record at the Grand National meeting, saddling nine winners between 2022 and 2025 and he wasted no time in getting off the mark this time around, taking the opening race of the meeting with Mange Tout before supplementing that win with another by the same sex in the shape of Brighterdaysahead in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle.

The Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle, the contest that Mange Tout won, had been won by fillies in two of the previous three years and in a well-run race (timefigure 134) she boosted that good record with a hard-fought win over the only other filly in the contest, the Triumph fourth Selma De Vary, making most of the running and rallying strongly after the runner-up had appeared to be going better approaching the final flight.

Selma De Vary had finished one place and one and a half lengths ahead of Mange Tout when the pair were second and third behind Narcisco Has in a muddlingly-run Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival, but Mange Tout had previously beaten Narcisco Has at Fairyhouse in November and if anything looks ready for a step up in trip.

The jury was and perhaps still is out over whether Brighterdaysahead is a better mare at two miles than two and a half, but she made it three wins from four around the trip (and two from two at this meeting) when beating one-time Champion Hurdle favourite The New Lion in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle and a timefigure of 152 isn’t far off her current best given that the 166 she was awarded in the December Hurdle in 2024 is probably on the high side now given the rating (167) that helped prompt that figure has been pulled down around 10lb since.

Little match for a much speedier Lossiemouth at the end of a steadily-run Champion Hurdle in which she set a surprisingly steady pace, she was far better suited by this stronger gallop and stayed on powerfully after tanking through the race, for all The New Lion might have got closer with better luck in running as well as leap at the last. Alexei ran up to his best in third as did Golden Ace in fourth, the latter seeing out the trip better than she has before.

Jango Baie was another who looked as good as he had at Cheltenham when winning the Racing Welfare Bowl by 16 lengths from Protektorat after what promised to be his closest challenger Impaire Et Passe fell two out. With Spillane’s Tower jumping poorly and running a very lacklustre race, and Pic d’Orhy a non-stayer, Jango Baie almost certainly didn’t have to run as well as the margin between the first two might suggest and a 155 timefigure is a very credible assessment of what he achieved.

His trainer Nicky Henderson had been expected to win the earlier William Hill Manifesto Novices’ Chase with Arkle third Lulamba but he unseated his rider after an awkward landing at the tenth so letting in second favourite Koktail Divin who looked better suited to this trip than he had the three miles one furlong of the Broadway. He had too much in hand for the placed horses who had quite a bit to find with him on form, and a 139 timefigure suggests the winner didn’t have to run to his best once the favourite departed.

Small improvement from Grey Dawning

The opening Grade 1 event on Friday, the William Hill Mildmay Chase, is usually won by a well-fancied runner – the longest -priced winner in the period since Timeform started returning timefigures over jumps in 2016 had been the 11/2 returned about Native River in the same year – and the latest renewal wasn’t any different with victory going to the 100/30 shot Gold Dancer who unfortunately suffered a fatal injury on the run-in after taking the last fence around 10 lengths clear.

Both he and the runner-up dominated throughout in what looked a strongly-run race, and the ordinary 137 winning timefigure might well have been a bit higher had Gold Dancer not clouted the last, but the form looks a bit substandard when all is said and done for all the horse who had beaten them in the Jack Richards Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, Meetmebythesea, is clearly a very smart prospect himself.

The Thatprizeguy Top Novices’ Hurdle rather surprisingly went the way of Storming George who had come up short in both his two earlier attempts in Graded company and in accounting for a horse who had last been seen in a handicap, Sinnatra, a 139 timefigure is again a bit substandard for all it was a considerable improvement on what he’d shown on the clock previously.

That figure wouldn’t have been anywhere good enough had either Sober Glory (153 at best) or Baron Noir (144) turned up anything like the same form as they had been in the Supreme, and the fact the only Irish runner was a 16/1 chance suggests that their current crop is severely lacking in good two-mile novice hurdlers.

The following JCB Melling Chase saw another horse leave behind his race at Cheltenham, in this instance Heart Wood who’d run a career-best 165 when winning the Ryanair last time. That said, his performance probably wasn’t as poor as it looks on paper given he was never travelling after a slow jump at the third fence and kept on pluckily in the face of a hopeless endeavour. Gold Cup fourth Grey Dawning was the one who took advantage, relishing the drop back in trip in a strongly-run race and, wearing first-time cheekpieces, posting a 165 which is a small improvement on the 161 he recorded twice in his novice season, including in the now-discontinued Turners Novices’ Chase at around this distance.

Runner-up Solness ran his best race at the trip since winning at Tipperary in 2023 in what was a frustrating if rewarding week for his trainer Joseph O’Brien, but it’s hard to think an on-song Jonbon, who had won this race in 2024 and 2025 and who is unbeaten at Aintree in four starts would have had their measure had he turned up instead of being held back for Sandown’s concluding National Hunt fixture.

One horse who showed Cheltenham had left no mark on him was Zeus Power who went two places better than he had in the Baring Bingham to defeat Albert Bartlett winner Johnny’s Jury in the Oddschecker Sefton Novices' Hurdle, the pair split by the much-improved Catchintsavo, though he would have won more readily and probably repeated his 142 Cheltenham timefigure (ran to 136) had he hurdled better in the straight, notably making a complete mess of the third last.

An imposing type, he looks a good candidate for the Brown Advisory next year, where his pace (won at two miles two runs previously) will stand him in good stead. Johnny’s Jury, a half-brother to Appreciate It, is another who should do well over fences next season when his stamina is tested more fully than it was here.

Identical timefigure for Maximus

Saturday's card featured one fewer Grade 1 race than the preceding two days but of course featured the Randox Grand National in which the well-backed I Am Maximus was attempting to become the first horse since Red Rum to regain the National Crown at the same time the well-fancied Panic Attack was bidding to become the first of her sex to lift the prize since Nickel Coin in 1951.

Her race ended at the third but in a sign that for all the race is no longer the attritional test it once was because of amendments to fences, starting procedures and field size, the race is still something of a specialists contest given that I Am Maximus ended up getting the better of 2025 fourth Iroko, both leaving the impression they will be leading contenders next year, after one of the three seven-year-olds in the field, Jordans, made an audacious but ultimately failed midrace move that saw him go from 13th at the Canal Turn to five lengths clear at the last, running the six furlongs before the final two almost two seconds faster than the winner and much quicker than anything else too bar fourth-place Johnnywho before that effort took its toll.

The winning timefigure was 145, the same as he recorded when winning in 2024, when his winning time was around 19 lengths slower on ground that Timeform called soft (it was good to soft this year).

There might not have been a shock in the National but there was in the opening Hallgarten & Novum Wines Maghull Novices’ Chase when the rank outsider Mirabad upset the hard-pulling Salvator Mundi in a well-run race (timefigure 146, 6lb higher than the winner had achieved previously) but seemingly benefitting from the second and third (his own stablemate Be Aware) getting into a protracted battle from some way out.

The Skelton yard were also on the mark with form-pick Bossman Jack in the Turners Mersey Novices' Hurdle and had the second Soldier Reeves for good measure. Sixth in the Baring Bingham and the third winner to emerge from that contest subsequently, Bossman Jack reversed Bingham form with fourth-placed Soldier Reeves, though might have finished ahead of him at Cheltenham anyway had he not belted the last when making good headway.

A 115 timefigure, well below his performance rating, is indicative of a messily-run race, likely helping the winner; Soldier Reeves probably found this test inadequate but might well be better of the pair when they both tackle three miles.

The final Grade 1 contest of the meeting, the Jet2Liverpool Hurdle, went to the rejuvenated Home By The Lee who followed up his Stayers’ Hurdle win over a field largely lacking his ability. A 130 timefigure was considerably less than he posted at Cheltenham, but whether he can confirm Stayers’ form at Punchestown with Teahupoo remains to be seen.

Pierre worth another chance

As mentioned earlier, Leopardstown’s Sunday card featured the return of Pierre Bonnard but he could finish only seventh in the P.W. Mcgrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes behind his stablemate Christmas Day.

The Ballysax was one of two races over a mile and a quarter and was well run (winning timefigure was 109) but the riders looked keen to avoid the inside rail going down the back and came wide into the straight. Pierre Bonnard and another stablemate Italy probably weren’t helped by staying towards the far side. It was interesting to read Aidan O’Brien say that some of his string are up to two weeks behind where he would expect them to be at this stage, picking out Pierre Bonnard as one of them, so I’d be reluctant to mark him down on the back of this.

More from Graeme North

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