Timeform's Graeme North reviews the 2026 Cheltenham Festival from a timefigure perspective.
Supreme Star gets the job done
Cheltenham’s opening day card might have had an unfamiliar look to it with a changed running order and re-sited final hurdle that meant a longer run-in than usual, but the results soon took on a recognisable feel with the first two races, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Singer Arkle being won by the two trainers who collectively have dominated those events in recent years, Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins.
Henderson was first up with Old Park Star, a horse who was put forward in this column after his win at the track in December as overpriced at 16/1 for the Supreme. Ahead of the race I can’t say I was wading in confidence despite his short 15/8 starting price, and his trainer didn’t seem overly confident either by some of his comments, but he got the job done narrowly in contrasting fashion to earlier victories at Cheltenham and Haydock (replay below). A 156 performance rating is middling so far as winners this century go but his 155 timefigure is one of the better ones albeit some of those horses who achieved better figures than he did, such as Douvan, Champagne Fever and Al Ferof, came in the era before Timeform started returning jumps timefigures.
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Henderson trained not only the outstanding winner of the Supreme this century, Constitution Hill, but also the outstanding winner of the Arkle, Sprinter Sacre, and like Old Park Star's Supreme win Kargese’s winning performance in the Arkle was well below his level. Much of that was to do with the 7lb mares’ allowance she received, of course, which has to be factored into her performance rating, but the time was a good one considering the small field on ground just about still good to soft, and her forcing tactics almost certainly contributed to the late errors that sealed the fate of not only Kopek Des Bordes but Lulamba too. Those first two results mean that collectively Henderson and Mullins have won ten of the last 15 Supremes and 12 of the last 15 Arkles. Kargese’s win was a first in the race for her rider Danny Mullins and also extended a remarkable record he has quietly been compiling with none of his 32 Grade 1 winners in Britain or Ireland having been sent off favourite.
Henderson and Mullins also have a good record in the Champion Hurdle and have now won nine of the last 15 renewals between them after the re-routed Lossiemouth made it four Festival wins in a row given the opportunity to run in the big one for the first time. It was a comprehensive win (six and a half lengths with last year’s winner Golden Ace back in fifth) but it shouldn’t disguise that the absence of some more talented rivals smoothed her path considerably as did the oddly sedate gallop set by Jack Kennedy on the strong stayer Brighterdaysahead. Bizarrely, Brighterdaysahead was four and a half seconds slower to halfway (a mile out, give or take a few yards) than the race leader and eventual second Sober Glory had been in the Supreme and a second slower (getting on for five lengths) than the front running Paddockwood had been in the Fred Winter, yet despite this still couldn’t run a faster last two furlongs than Sober Glory. The Champion timefigure was just 138 and not only uncovered Brighterdaysahead’s shortcomings in a weakly-run affair but those of The New Lion, too, who clearly isn’t the two-miler connections thought he was.
Saratoga’s timefigure was 118, well below his performance rating in a race they didn’t go hard in either and in which runner-up Winston Junior (Jack Kennedy) was set too much to do; Johnnywho posted a smart 148 in the Ultima but who knows how far Jagwar might have won by had he jumped better and not been taken so wide; the heavily-gambled on Madara won the Plate in 135 and Holloway Queen, a rare staying chase winner for Nicky Henderson these days, took the National Hunt Challenge Cup in 128.
X marks the spot for Majborough
The Supreme had suggested the British novice hurdlers were a cut above the Irish, at least at around two miles, but following The New Lion’s win last year normal service was resumed with Willie Mullins winning the Baring Bingham for the fourth time in the last five seasons with the weak-in-the-market King Rasko Grey.
The New Lion had been successful in the Challow last year prior to winning at Cheltenham, and this season’s winner No Drama This End was sent off a well-backed favourite to continue that trend, but he ended up travelling backwards more than he did forward and was eventually pulled up. Like The New Lion this year, No Drama This End was another who looked as if he was in the wrong race (indeed, his trainer admitted had he seen the weather forecast he’d have run in the Albert Bartlett). King Rasko Grey had finished behind or around a couple last time out who were well held in the Supreme but the five-furlong longer trip brought about plenty of improvement even if the winning performance (151) and timefigure (146) suggests a lower-quality renewal than usual despite the large field.
Mullins also took the Brown Advisory for the fourth time in the last six runnings with Kitzbuhel who made all and stayed on too strongly for Final Demand. Again, the winning performance was not quite what we’ve come to expect in recent years nor was the timefigure (151) in a race in which several at very big prices finished closer up than might have been expected.
Much the same could be said about the BetMGM Champion Chase which was blown apart early by Majborough after a slow start only for him to then make a succession of howlers, all too apparent to anyone whose approach to race reading is visuals first and data second. There’s no doubt that on his day - and that may be when getting an uncontested lead at a track where the fences are evenly spaced and don’t come thick and fast as they do at Cheltenham – Majborough is very good but his jumping technique is clearly flawed and it's no surprise he became the second high-profile horse this season to have an x on his rating after Constitution Hill. Il Etait Temps was well ridden well away from the early gallop and posted a 166, a 1lb improvement on his previous best in the Celebration Chase last year; runner-up Libberty Hunter also posted a 1lb career best so beating his third place behind Lulamba in the Game Spirit last time. That was another strongly run race in which he closed late from the rear without threatening.
The BetMGM Handicap Hurdle (formerly the Coral Cup) went to the cannily ridden Jinkgo Blue in a leisurely 137 from the front, while the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual saw Martator come from the clouds to win in 143. Flat jockey Colin Keane won the Champion Bumper on The Mourne Rambler on his first Festival ride and the 106 winning timefigure has only been bettered in the race by Facile Vega and Ballyandy.
Well-run Stayers' Hurdle catches a few out
Thursday’s card and first of the meeting on the New Course kicked off with the Mares’ Novices Hurdle which had been billed in many parts as a formality for last year’s Champion Bumper winner Bambino Fever. That assessment proved well wide of her mark, however, as she managed only sixteenth in a first-time tongue tie behind the progressive White Noise who galloped on strongly from a prominent position to pass the post in a 135 timefigure, well up to the standard for the race.
Bambino Fever’s defeat was blamed by connections on the quick ground – Timeform called it good – and led to the withdrawal later in the card of hot Ryanair favourite Fact To File, a jumps horse too valuable to race under unsuitable conditions if an interview with connections can be believed. In theory. Fact To File’s absence ought to have opened the door finally to a first Festival success for the evergreen Jonbon but he was never travelling as well as he can and saw his jumping rather go to pieces late on as the very well-backed Heart Wood (second in this race last year to Fact To File) strode right away to win by ten lengths in a 165 timefigure, a significant career best for him but one Jonbon has matched several times before albeit not at Cheltenham.
Should Jonbon or his connections need any inspiration for another Festival fling next year they can take it from Home By The Lee who had been beaten in all his previous four visits in March, never finishing any closer than third, but made it fifth time lucky in the Stayers’ Hurdle in a 152 timefigure, a figure he twice achieved earlier in his career. The well-run race at the trip looked to drain Kabral Du Mathan of stamina after the last, not even managing a place having led on the bridle at that hurdle, while suiting the other placed horses Ballyburn and Bob Olinger who both stayed on from the rear; disappointing favourite Teahupoo reportedly lost a shoe.
Gordon Elliott had earlier got off the mark for the meeting with Wodhooh who landed a weak-looking Mares’ Hurdle in Lossiemouth’s absence in 144; the Pertemps went to ‘handicap snip’ Supremely West in 137 while Ask Brewster needed to run to only 108 to win a steadily-run Kim Muir in which fourth-placed Kim Roque was an eyecatcher back in fourth (see free race replay below).
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsGaelic too good for Gold Cup rivals
Gold Cup day kicked off with the Triumph which Willie Mullins took for the second year running with a horse who hadn’t jumped a hurdle in public in Britain or Ireland, Apolon De Charnie, second on his only start in France behind Proactif who was sent off favourite here but could finish only ninth. A 139 timefigure in a big field is historically modest for the race, however, adding to the suspicion I’ve had all season from the clock that they are not a vintage bunch. The winning time was almost identical to the County 40 minutes later, but that race was steadily run, returning an identical 139 timefigure, the contest suiting those who raced more towards the front end which made Karbau’s performance all the more remarkable.
The Albert Bartlett also returned a timefigure in the mid 130s, 135 in this instance, as Johnny’s Jury who had only raced at two miles this season showed that stamina is his real forte as he found plenty having still been well back two out. The other hurdle on the card, the Martin Pipe, was very steadily run with previous Festival winner Air Of Entitlement scoring in 108 with Karbau’s stable-companion Jump Allen another who looked a real hard-luck story as he charged home into third having had nowhere to go behind rivals approaching the last.
No excuses then for leaving the best until last, for all the Boodles Gold Cup had a sad postscript with the death after the race of three-time Festival winner Envoi Allen who was running at a remarkable eighth consecutive Festival. Gaelic Warrior’s winning time just edged under 6 minutes 40 seconds, making it the joint-third fastest since the race officially had 50 yards lopped off its distance, and was nearly two seconds faster than Inothewayurthinkin last year, which is fitting as that is almost exactly how long in seconds Inothewayurthinkin finished behind him in third this year.
All that translates into a 169 timefigure for Gaelic Warrior, 1lb shy of his 170 best recorded when beating Fact To File in the John Durkan, while runner-up Jango Baie’s 162 was 2lb below his 164 best (achieved in the Ladbrokes 1965 Chase) and Inothewayurthinkin’s 160 was a career best and might even have been improved upon with a more conventional preparation and a better round of jumping. Grey Dawning’s 154 wasn’t far off his best over a trip patently too far while The Jukebox Man will have to wait another day to post the high figure he hasn’t yet done with the trip looking to stretch him too.
Dinoblue won the Mrs Paddy Power for the second time in three years in 155 equalling her previous best while Barton Snow took the Hunter Chase in 108 from Its On The Line who was finishing runner-up for the fourth year running and would have wanted a stiffer test of stamina.
This is the final Watch And Learn for a while with the column returning after the Grand National meeting.
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