Timefigure analysis ahead of Cheltenham Festival from recent action in Ireland, Kempton and Newcastle

The week just gone has long been one where horses not quite good enough for Cheltenham can have their day in the sun – not that there’s been much of that lately - but if there was ever an exception to that generalisation it came at Naas on Sunday when Corbetts Cross defied a mile and half a furlong drop back in trip to get the better narrowly of the highly-touted Found A Fifty in the Grade 2 Johnstown Novice Hurdle.

Regular readers will know that I put forward Corbetts Cross as a suggestion for the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham back in January after he carried top-weight to victory off a mark of 130 in a three-mile handicap at Fairyhouse in heavy ground, showing a rare turn of foot for a stayer while leaving the strong impression he could have doubled his six-length winning margin had his rider wanted too. Even so, I wasn’t quite prepared for the pace he showed over a much sharper test at Naas on ground that was far quicker than at Fairyhouse.

The strong gallop – his winning Timeform timefigure was a smart 142 with his overall time rating climbing to 147 once a 5lb upgrade from three out is factored in – undoubtedly played to his strengths given his proven stamina but even so there is no disputing this was a high-class performance for a novice on his first start for Emmet Mullins.

Found A Fifty is no slouch. He’d come home a second and a half faster from three out, albeit off a slower pace, than leading Mares’ Novice Hurdle fancy Ashroe Diamond had when winning at Fairyhouse on his previous start, which would have given him an overall time rating somewhere in the 140s. Corbetts Cross seems an even more obvious selection now for the Albert Bartlett than when I put him up but unfortunately for those of us who have taken big odds, it’s not yet certain he’ll go there with connections insisting he needs ground softer than he might encounter if the dry spell continues. The perils of ante-post betting!

The Johnston Hurdle was one of six Graded races in Ireland last week, of which four were decided by half a length or less, including the other Graded event on the Naas card, the G3 Newlands Chase over two miles.

Favourite for the race was Coeur Sublime, a horse who has mostly kept top company without ever really suggesting on the clock he’s up to that level - his best timefigure over fences is 151 – and though he wasn’t far off that level at Naas (147) it was still rather underwhelming that he couldn’t get the better of the better-than-ever but still limited Rebel Gold.

Coeur Sublime’s defeat was the second short-priced reverse of the week for the Henry de Bromhead yard (a slight concern for those of use who have been beating the A Plus Tard drum) after Telmesumthinggirl was turned over in a Listed Mares Novice Chase at Thurles. She had every chance in a race that turned into a dash for home with the pace only really picking up from the second last but possibly hadn’t recovered from her gruelling race the time before and had no answer as Brides Hill, hunted round behind Allegorie de Vassy on her previous start to secure some Black Type, swept past on the bridle jumping the last.

Sa Fureur won the Grade 3 Michael Purcell Hurdle on the same card gamely from Buddy One, but a slower finishing split from the last than the veteran 88-rated Port Rashid managed in the concluding hurdle hardly shouts good form.

The other Graded races in Ireland last week were won by Kemboy, Zenta and Queen’s Brook.

The Tote Fantasy Bobbyjo Chase has been something of a Grand National Trial in recent years and was won last season by 2022 runner-up Any Second Now, but if there was a Grand National pointer in the race it came not from the regressive winner Kemboy, who’s not even entered and very much had the run of the race (timefigure 145) on his way to a first and hardly impressive win in three years, but from the runner-up Vanillier who was conceding Kemboy 8lb and yet ran him to half a length despite being set a lot to do.

I’d be wary of taking this form at face value, however, with Now Where Or When too close for comfort back in third, and I’d say the same too about Zenta despite making her first start in Ireland a winning one.

On top of a 118 timefigure that isn’t much to write home about, her jumping, particularly at the last two hurdles, was novicey and a comparison of her final circuit time as well as finishing fractions from each of the last three hurdles compared to the 115-rated L’yser who ran over half a mile more doesn’t flatter her either.

Queens Brook won a very tactical Quevega Mares Hurdle (timefigure just 94) at Punchestown a couple of days previously but the very sharp inside track there is a very different test to the more galloping outer track and Brandy Love, who was conceding the winner 9lb on her first start for nearly a year, looks a good thing to me to reverse the form going back left handed should the pair meet again at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks’ time.

The bulk of the best action in Britain last weekend took place at Kempton on Saturday.

The opening Coral Adonis Juvenile Hurdle has a reputation as a last-ditch Triumph Hurdle trial but it’s a long time since the race (2011, Zarkandar) produced the Cheltenham winner and though runner-up Perseus Way advanced his own form, and might even have held on had he jumped the last more cleanly, its sobering for the home contingent that he was run down in a well-run race (timefigure 128) by Nusret, one that that had finished third but still nearly twenty lengths behind Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny on his last two starts in Ireland and isn’t even entered for the Triumph.

Solo had won the Adonis in 2020 on his way to eighth place in the Triumph when sent off at 4/1 and he won just his second race since when landing the Coral Pendil Novices’ Chase half an hour later in a race his trainer Paul Nicholls has dominated in recent years.

A two-length defeat of Datsalrightgino reads satisfactorily on paper, but the clock says otherwise with a 15lb upgrade to a 113 timefigure only taking his overall timerating to an ordinary 128 and supporters of Jonbon for the Arkle won’t have wanted to see Boothill brushed aside so easily from two out.

Nicholls also landed the other Graded race on the card, the Sky Bet Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, with Rubaud who had flopped in the Betfair Hurdle when last seen but settled much better here in a smaller field tried in a first-time hood. Even so, a 137 timefigure and a 6lb upgrade only puts him in the second division of novices and, if anything as I saw it, paid more of a compliment to Rare Edition who beat him readily at Kempton over Christmas but has become something of a forgotten horse since his defeat in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon after which he scoped dirty.

The feature handicap, known as the Coral Trophy Handicap these days, went to Our Power in a career-best 145 timefigure so making amends for his unlucky third off a 5lb lower mark the year before.

Christian Williams was out of luck at Kempton with Coral Trophy favourite Cap Du Nord, bidding to follow up his win the previous Saturday under a penalty, but he landed the other feature staying handicap of the weekend, the Vertem Eider at Newcastle with Kitty’s Light who was racing off a mark generously 13lb lower than when third in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April having been kept to an inadequate three miles in the interim.

Four miles chases still test stamina to some degree even if they are not an out-and-out test – Kitty’s Light’s timefigure was just 110 compared to his 138 form rating – but what was most interesting about his performance was that even at the end of four miles he still sprinted home from the last fence a second faster than the 133-rated Easy As That managed in the following chase over two and a half. That suggests to me that even after an 8lb rise in his mark he still remains exceptionally well treated and it’s no surprise he’s such a strong favourite for the Scottish Grand National.

The other domestic feature at the weekend, the Betgoodwin National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell, went to Brewin’upastorm for the second time. He’s not top class but he’s smart on his day and showed the benefit of another breathing operation after eight weeks off in receipt of 6lb from all his rivals, but a narrow defeat of Sceau Royal in a tactical affair (109 timefigure) with Goshen well off the pace again is a better piece of placing than it is form.

Going back to Newcastle, I spent five years there when I was much younger and remain very fond of the place. I emerged somehow with a degree in Economics given how little work I did, was in the sell-out crowd for Kevin Keegan’s first match as a player (he scored the only goal in a 1-0 win over Queens Park Rangers) and even met the first love of my life there, though I very much doubt she has ever had any regrets about not moving down to Halifax with me given she went on to found Newcastle’s famous Riverside music venue before landing a long-time gig as Press Manager for iconic nineties Britpop giants Blur.

At the time, Newcastle racecourse, where I passed many happy hours under both codes, including a couple of visits to the Eider, was regarded as one of the finest in the country, so it’s been depressing to keep seeing my old haunt continually in the in the news for all the wrong reasons lately.

Big differences of opinion between racing professionals and the groundstaff have led to the very late abandonment of one all-weather fixture and a plethora of non-runners at one jumps meeting, while some lamentably feeble and inconsistent stewarding saw a young 7lb claimer banned for ten days for doing not much different than some more seniors riders have got away with unpunished.

While race-day stewarding remains as unprofessional as it is currently, with seemingly no appetite for reform, it’s unlikely that things will change any time soon, but it would be nice to think that at some point in the future there will be some mechanism in place incorporating sectional data that directs stewards, who at least spotted Burning The Bails, demonstrably the clear winner on Timeform upgrades, at Newcastle last week, to be far more interrogative and less accommodating of some of the explanations that they are given.

More black and white in other words, aptly so given the area, rather than the grey that passes currently.

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