Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Rory Delargy

Recommended Bets: November 26

1pt win Middlescence in 12.20 Southwell at 18/1 (minimum 12/1)

1pt win The Gill Brothers in 5.30 Chelmsford at 11/2 (minimum 9/2 )

1pt win Ernesto in 6.00 Chelmsford at 12/1 (minimum 8/1)

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Up The Middle - 12.20 Southwell

Backing 22-race maidens is a fast way to the poorhouse, generally speaking, but Middlescence has caught the eye on more than one occasion in these all-weather handicaps (not least when sent off 250-1 from over a stone out the handicap at Newcastle last year, and only beaten three lengths).

He turned in a very solid effort here on his latest start, finishing third to the bang-in-form Ustath, beaten just a couple of lengths having been the only one to really throw down a challenge to the winner. Ustath reopposes here on 11lb worse terms, jockeys’ claims not included, so has every chance of reversing form purely from a weights and measures perspective.

Luke Morris takes over the ride from Victor Santos, and for a horse that needs a push-and-shove ride, that’s probably no bad thing. Neither is being drawn just outside Ustath, who once again looks the likely pace angle in the race, so there’s every reason to think he should get a good tow into the contest, and we don’t think there’s anything wrong with his attitude.

No Half Measures - 5.30 Chelmsford

There is often value to be had when ignoring a poor run, assuming there are reasons to, as recency bias is naturally rife in odds compiling as it is in most human analysis. The Gill Brothers has a solid chance in this mile handicap based on his overall record over course and distance, and the combination of a wide draw, the longer trip and a poor passage is enough to make me put a line through his latest run.

Of course, I could just point out that he still beat Visinari by 22 lengths to suggest that the collateral form gives him a winning chance, but the latter’s supporters have had enough of a kicking for me to sink that low.

The other factor which sways me towards making the Stuart Williams-trained runner a bet is that he’s up against a favourite who may well be overrated. I do like Ayr Harbour as a performer, but while he won easily at Southwell last time, most of us have learned not to assume that Fibresand form will translate to Polytrack, and while I accept that Mick Appleby’s charge is better on artificial surfaces than he is on turf, he’s now 10lb higher than for his last win on this surface, and that Southwell win last time came on his tenth run of the year.

To produce a career best as he did there must be surface related to some degree, and he’s opposable as a result.

Second Wind – 6.00 Chelmsford

Ian Williams has had several winners in recent weeks from limited runners, including the massive Sometimes Always at Wetherby on Wednesday. He has a very interesting runner in this 1¾m handicap in the shape of German Listed winner Ernesto. Ernesto hasn’t reproduced the best of his form for Markus Klug since arriving at Williams’s Alvechurch yard, but he was rated very highly, and has found himself far from disgraced on a couple of occasions in very warm handicaps.

He was only beaten 5½ lengths at Ascot 12 weeks ago, and has been given a breathing operation and a break since then. It often takes foreign imports a bit of time to acclimatise to their new regimes here, and I’ve had Ernesto down as the type to do better after a break.

He’s certainly got a better chance here than he’s had in his UK outings so far, and having fallen to a mark of 90, he should finally be able to show what attracted his connections to him at the sales.

Posted at 1745 GMT on 25/11/20

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