Cheltenham's November Meeting starts on Friday

Cheltenham November Meeting: Trends, stats, horses, trainers and jockeys to watch

18:17 · WED November 15, 2017

We take an early look at the Cheltenham's November Meeting, highlighting trainers and jockeys to follow as well as horses who could emerge as Festival candidates come March.

Countryside Day | 17.11.17

Gates: 10.30am
First race: 12.40pm
Last race: 3.35pm

Trainer to follow: Philip Hobbs, who has saddled 12 winners at this meeting over the last five years, four of them coming on Friday. He has just two potential runners for day one this time around: Bertie Boru and Lamb Or Cod. The latter was beaten when falling here last month but does have a good record at Cheltenham and is well-handicapped on his best form ahead of the opening amateur riders' race, while Bertie Boru could take his chance in the Cross Country which Hobbs won with yard favourite Balthazar King.

Key race: The Steel Plate And Sections Novices' Chase, over 2m4f, has been won by Dynaste, Taquin Du Seuil, Champagne West, More Of That and O O Seven.

Colin Tizzard could run Grade One-winning hurdler Finian's Oscar, ultimately a comfortable winner at Chepstow on his debut over fences, although he also has Sunday's Arkle Trial as an option. From the same yard, West Approach would be an interesting contender while Paul Nicholls appears likely to send out Movewiththetimes, the strapping Betfair Hurdle runner-up who was a shade disappointing when fourth on his chasing bow here last month but seems sure to improve for that experience, in either this or Sunday's two-mile contest.

Handicap snippet: The two-mile handicap chase on day one is for many the biggest betting race and, as one might expect, it has thrown up some big-priced winners - often from lesser-known stables - with a five-year average SP of 13/1. While it has gone to Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs, the roll-of-honour is completed by Nigel Hawke, Henry Oliver and Paul Henderson.

Two of the five winners had won their sole previous start over fences at Cheltenham, with two having performed poorly at the course and one, Bold Henry, making his first visit. Three had been busy; two had been off for at least four months. Nothing to see here.

However, four were aged eight with the other aged seven and this could help unravel a competitive race. Just four of the 13 five-day entries fit into the required age bracket, including last-time-out winner Baby King and Doitforthevillage, who ran a fair race when fifth here last time and represents last year's winning trainer.

Most interesting, however, could be Mick Thonic for Colin Tizzard. He looks nicely enough treated on his course win here in the spring (beat Marracudja in receipt of 8lb) and might have gone very close two starts ago but for unseating. He was pulled-up here last time in a good novices' chase won by the smart North Hill Harvey but only after a severe blunder and, if avoiding such a mistake, could go well. He's just seven, has scope to improve and ran well enough in the Grand Annual to be of serious interest for top connections.

Novice nous: The Neptune trial, which has shifted in the schedule but now stands as a feature on Friday, isn't necessarily all about the winner. Last year, runner-up Wholestone went on to place in the Albert Bartlett at 13/2, while in 2015 a similar scenario unfolded with Champers On Ice, beaten here but placed at the Festival - this time at 20/1. It has also thrown up a pair of top-class chasers in the last five years, Blaklion and Coneygree, winners of the RSA Chase and Gold Cup respectively.

Of those currently entered for Friday's race, Palmers Hill could be one to keep a particularly close eye on. He was really impressive over two miles last time (third a winner since) but will be even more effective up in trip having impressively won a point-to-point before joining Jonjo O'Neill. Vision Des Flos and On The Blind Side could help make this one of the more intriguing contests of the meeting.

Make sure you visit the Guinness Village and enjoy live music from the @thelucky15sband throughout #TheNovemberMeeting
— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) November 13, 2017

BetVictor Gold Cup Day | 18.11.17

Gates: 10.00am
First race: 12.40pm
Last race: 4.00pm

Trainer to follow: Paul Nicholls. Almost half (5/11) of his winners at this meeting have come on Saturday and with neither Philip Hobbs nor Colin Tizzard appearing to have the strongest set of entries, it's the multiple champion trainer who gets the vote. Nicholls has also saddled two winners (8/1 and 10/1) of the feature BetVictor Gold Cup plus a 20/1 third.

Key race: Away from the feature, the Triumph Hurdle Trial which kick-starts the card is almost certain to be worth watching back given that the only subsequent Festival winner to emerge from this meeting last year was Defi Du Seuil, who took the opener in style as a 5/4 favourite.

Watch out for Apple's Shakira, who could line-up in the same green and gold McManus silks for what would be her debut for Nicky Henderson. A full sister to Apple's Jade, she's already third-favourite for the Triumph on the back of a facile win in France before moving to Seven Barrows for big money. Favourite for the Triumph is Gumball, trained by juvenile maestro Philip Hobbs, and he too is engaged. In other words, this is a genuine trial and whatever wins it could well be a single-figure price for the first race on the final day of the Festival.

Big names in the BetVictor: One of the striking things about the feature race of the meeting, the BetVictor Gold Cup, is how difficult it has been for smaller yards to get their hands on the prize. You have to go back to 1997 for local trainer Susan Nock's winner, Senor El Betrutti, and since then the same names appear virtually throughout.

Martin Pipe won six of the following eight renewals (eight in total), remarkably, and his son David has since added another (2011). Paul Nicholls and Jonjo O'Neill combine for four of the last five (O'Neill has three in total), the other going to Alan King, while Nigel Twiston-Davies has three, and both Nicky Henderson and Venetia Williams one.

Key Stats: Five years of the November Meeting

Leading jockey: Richard Johnson with 12 winners

Others of note: Barry Geraghty (9), Tom Scudamore (8), Sam Twiston-Davies (6)

Leading trainer: David Pipe with 13 winners

Others of note: Philip Hobbs (12), Paul Nicholls (11), Nicky Henderson (7)

The only exceptions to the top-level dominance over the last 20 years are Ferdy Murphy (2007) and Edward O'Grady (2009), whose winners denied horses in the care of King and Nicholls respectively. It's a very small pool of trainers and points towards two horses who feature in Matt Brocklebank's Antepost Angle, as well as Romain De Senam for Nicholls. He's asked another question up 5lb for a hard-fought Stratford win but that probably came soon enough after a facile success at Chepstow, and he has scope to defy a mark of 144 having been unfortunate not to win the Fred Winter here in 2016.

Foxtail Hill is one of two entered for Twiston-Davies and should also go on the shortlist. Up 7lb for winning last time, the way he fended off Le Prezien that day suggests he could well cope with the rise and his Cheltenham record is excellent, bar a fall when sent off favourite for the race won by antepost favourite Tully East at the Festival. Gold Present, for Henderson, was runner-up to the Irish horse but isn't necessarily weighted to reverse that form just 1lb better off.

One way or another, it would be no surprise were the winning trainer familiar with the trophy.

Creatures of habit: The Listed handicap hurdle has thrown up two 20/1 winners and one at 14/1 in recent years, but it's telling that the two fancied runners both came from David Pipe's yard. He is set to saddle Dell' Arca this time around, following what looked like a career-best at Newbury last time out. This exposed eight-year-old will do well to defy a 10lb rise but goes well here and might be one for your Placepot perm. Not that we should rule out further improvement - he does remind me a little of Buena Vista, who won the Pertemps Final for the Pipes aged nine and 10.

Peter Bowen saddled the winner of this race in 2015 and has two potential candidates at the time of writing. Rolling Maul is as exposed as they come but has run some big races here, winning off 125 but placing off a mark as high as 137. He's now somewhere in-between having been dropped to 129 and will likely be sent off a big price. Bowen also has Souriyan, whose winning run was ended in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow last time. That was a hot race, mind you, one which has already produced winners, and his Cheltenham form includes a one-length second to Might Bite in novice company.

Finally, watch out for Anteros, last year's runaway winner who returns off just a 3lb higher mark for Sophie Leech. He fell when looking set to stay on for a midfield finish at the course last month but this will no doubt have been the target and he could go well off a low weight.

Winners at this meeting who went on to land a race at the Festival

2016: One - Defi Du Seuil

2015: Four - Altior, Sprinter Sacre, Unowhatimeanharry, Ballyandy

2014: None

2013: Two - Balthazar King, Taquin Du Seuil

2012: None

Nicky Henderson reflects on Sprinter Sacre's Shloer win

The November Meeting Sunday | 19.11.17

Gates: 11.00am
First race: 1.15pm
Last race: 4.00pm

Trainer to follow: David Pipe. While Harry Fry has enjoyed a high-profile winner on this day two years running, it's Pipe who gets the vote. No trainer has saddled more winners at this meeting over the last five years than Pipe's 13, six of which have come on the final day. Two of the six in fact came in the opening conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle, both ridden by Kieron Edgar.

The trainer has three entered at this stage, perhaps none more interesting than Delface, who made a winning debut for the yard when they were going through a dry spell in the spring. Aero Majestic has had four quick runs in novice hurdles to qualify for this lowly mark and should do better for the switch to handicap company and step up in trip, while Great Tempo is unexposed and has dropped almost a stone in just three handicaps. Watch the market with great respect for all three.

Key race: With the Arkle Trial unlikely, perhaps, to throw up an Arkle winner, and the Shloer Chase having peaked with Sprinter Sacre's triumph in 2015, it's the feature Greatwood Handicap Hurdle which catches the eye - despite the absence of Defi Du Seuil, who had appeared set to run. As mentioned, he won at this meeting last year en route to Festival glory in the Triumph and would have been hard to beat in pursuit of a pot which his trainer has plundered with similar types in the past, often under a big weight.

Still, his absence may give the race a better shape for punters, especially with Jenkins now a likely candidate for favouritism. His defeat of Bags Groove at Newbury last year received another boost during the week, but the cut-and-thrust of a handicap such as this would ask an enormous question of a seemingly unnatural jumper on his return to action.

Clearly, a one-time Sky Bet Supreme favourite in excellent hands could make a mockery of a rating of 137, but it may pay to look elsewhere. It'd be fair to assume J P McManus is happy with his hand without Defi Du Seuil and Project Bluebook is tempting. He has the required handicap form - fourth in the Fred Winter; a staying-on sixth in the Galway Hurdle - and is fit from the Flat. At 20/1, he should run well but its Ivanovich Gorbatov in the same colours who could be the real springer.

His win in the Triumph Hurdle of 2016 is very good form - Apple's Jade was second before exacting revenge at Aintree - and there are few concerns around his absence, which extends back to the 2017 Festival. He paid the price for chasing a fierce pace in the County Hurdle having been backed off the boards but wasn't beaten far and, off the same mark and in a slightly lesser race, has much in his favour.

Upping the Ante: Over the last five years, seven winners at this meeting have gone on to win at the Cheltenham Festival the following March and four came on one golden Sunday two years ago. Standout, of course, was Sprinter Sacre's heartwarming victory in the Shloer Chase but on the same card were wins for Altior, Unowhatimeanharry and Ballyandy.

Finding one to get on at this stage is no easy task, but there are some options. Dame De Compagnie was very impressive, albeit in modest company, when making a winning debut for Nicky Henderson at Uttoxeter and is 33/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme, ahead of her run in the first trial for that race. She's likely to come up against Slate House, shorter for the Supreme after a stylish win here last month, and it's possible that one of these makes up into a genuine contender come March, although Dame De Compagnie is more tempting for the new mares' novices' hurdle at 14/1.

A couple of runners in the bumper have antepost quotes already - Crooks Peak and Hangard - although there's no temptation to back either, whereas 20/1 about Cloudy Dream for the Ryanair Chase could be worth considering.

Malcolm Jefferson's horse was an intended runner in the BetVictor Gold Cup only for an unfortunate mix-up to force connections to consider the Shloer Chase instead, a race run over the two-mile trip of the Arkle in which he chased home Altior last March.

A wonderful jumper who has plenty of improvement left in him, Cloudy Dream's form stacks up really well already and he can make the progress required (around 10lb) to be a genuine factor next March, having looked like he would come on a bundle for his return second in the Old Roan.

He also has every opportunity to beat Fox Norton, the Ryanair favourite, in Sunday's race. Colin Tizzard's horse is officially 10lb superior but would have to concede 3lb and a fitness advantage to a potentially high-class rival whose trainer doesn't waste journeys to Cheltenham.