The Horse Watchers | Analysis from Martin Dixon including horses to follow

Baldomero gets his head in front – at last!

It was just brilliant to get a win with Baldomero at Goodwood in the William Hill Epic Value Handicap, to be honest. He’s been called a few names by a few people and I can kind of understand it as he has been so long without winning a race, but in fairness to the horse he’s an owner’s dream. His consistency has been his biggest downfall. He’s an amazing horse. We bought him with a rating of 85 and he’s never gone lower than that, while never going higher than 91.

We’ve had him for 33 runs, he’s been second on 12 occasions and third six times. 18 of his 33 runs for us he’s finished second or third and now he’s managed to get his second win – over half a mile shorter than when he gained his first success for us!

It was almost a relief for us to get that second win on the board. Nowadays six and seven furlongs are his best distances, so he’s got options going forward over that sort of trip on good or softer ground. His best chances going forward will be when it’s testing seeing as he handles it so well. He’s got an entry at Windsor on Monday and they’ve had rain there, so it’s possible he’ll go there if it doesn’t dry out too much.

We’ll keep him busy, he takes his racing well, and he’ll definitely get an entry in the Stewards’ Cup at Glorious Goodwood. Fingers crossed they have weather like they did last year as he would love it.

Penzance has John Smith’s Cup target

Penzance was in at Chester at the five-day stage but we had a change of heart and decided to wait a little bit longer with him. We’re not in a massive rush with him and he had a little bit of a snotty nose on Wednesday morning, nothing that would hold him back, but enough for us not to declare him this time. He’s got the option of going to York’s Dante meeting or the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar later this month, or we could wait into June.

We’ve got half an eye on the John Smith’s Cup at York in July. He’d want to run before then, probably only one run before, but that’s his likely aim, it’s just a case of where we decide to go with him before York.

He’s only run for us on the all-weather, but we’re confident he’ll be fine on the turf. He’s only had two runs on grass, firstly his debut when he was green, secondly his last run before we got him where he was turned out quickly with cheekpieces on and it was too bad to be true. We’ll only know when we try, but we’re very hopeful he’ll be effective on it. He’s very straightforward.

ISLAND NATIVE – 1.30 Chester (Friday)

This was a bit of a leftfield entry. I was tracking the entries last Saturday and noticed that in a 0-105 the top weight was rated 96 despite the grade of handicap, so it became apparent we would have a chance of getting a run within the weights. The race has cut up and we do run off bottom weight off our correct mark. So it’s a roll of the dice for good money at a good meeting with a horse who should be suited by the track. Whether he’ll be up to running in this grade of handicap I don’t know, but we’ve got Franny Norton on board who obviously rides Chester very well and he’s a horse that gets out into his stride quickly. With early pace in mind we think Chester might suit from a decent draw in six, so we’re crossing our fingers and hoping for a good result.

DARING LEGEND – 4.00 Ascot (Friday)

Daring Legend was probably turned out too many times in March and he kind of got fast-tracked to running on All-Weather Finals day. It wasn’t the initial plan, but we got him qualified and when the race didn’t fill up we had to go for it. With the benefit of hindsight we shouldn’t have run him four times in four weeks. That Newcastle run is one to put a line through and he’s had six weeks off since, freshened up at home, and Ali Rawlinson, who has been riding him in his work, is really happy with him at home. We’re hopeful that a stiff six at Ascot will be a track and trip situation that suits him well. He’s drawn around the pace and although it’s a competitive race we’re hopeful that he can go well and he’s a solid each-way chance.

LOPE DU RUEDA – 8.18 Nottingham (Friday)

He’s been disappointing so far. He’s a horse that shows a lot at home and Rebecca Menzies is adamant he’s got more ability than he’s showing. As yet he’s not shown it on the track, he just hasn’t been finishing his races. He can be too keen, gets a bit worked up beforehand and stuff, and just hasn’t put it altogether yet. Jason Watson told us he wants to come back in distance, he’s got pace and is enthusiastic, so we’ve dropped him right back to five to see how he goes. If it works he could win, but we’re going to suck it and see. He’s a horse that wants to get on with things, so let’s see what he can do sprinting.

RHOSCOLYN – 2.40 Ascot (Saturday)

Rhoscolyn runs in the Victoria Cup again having finished 10th in it last year. In last year’s race it didn’t set up perfectly for him and early on last season he took a while to find his form, running poorly at Haydock on his way to Ascot. This season he ran loads better in the same Haydock race, finishing fourth, unlucky not to finish second, so he goes there on the back of a much more encouraging run. He’s been placed at Ascot off 103 and he’s 5lb lower here, he seems to be in good form, and provided he gets the luck you need in this type of race then he’s got a chance. He’s drawn in the middle, front runners around him, so there’s plenty going for him, but he’ll need plenty to go his way, as well.

ZOZIMUS – 2.45 Haydock (Saturday)

Zozimus is a horse with loads of ability and he’s ready to win when a race works out for him, but he is pretty quirky. He needs them to go fast as he is pretty headstrong. His last two runs have been good, he’s on a pretty dangerous handicap mark if things do drop into place for him and he takes his racing really well so we’ll keep him busy now. I’m sure within his next few starts he’ll get his head in front and be winning. Newmarket was a very good run last week, he just either wants a fast pace or riding a little bit differently if there isn’t a strong gallop to aim at. He’s very well-handicapped for the day that he puts it all together.

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