The Cunningham File: Luxembourg puts Classic credentials on the line at Doncaster

No place for neutrality as Luxembourg aims to join the big beasts

You can’t be neutral on the topic of Luxembourg and Ballydoyle’s latest Classic contender is polarising opinions nicely ahead of his bid to give Aidan O’Brien a tenth win in Britain’s final major race of the Flat season at Doncaster.

One wag jokingly described the Camelot colt as a “jug headed giraffe” after his runaway win in the Beresford Stakes last month, while the influential Simon Rowlands has taken a far more positive view, using detailed sectional/striding analysis in his ATR Blog to recommend Luxembourg first as a Derby hope (after his Killarney debut!) then as a viable Guineas contender following his Curragh romp.

It will take about 1m 40s of straight-course G1 action in Saturday’s Vertem Futurity Trophy to advance the debate but, as that great racing man Loyd Grossman used to say, let’s take a look at the evidence.

The O’Brien Factor

Aidan doesn’t just win the Vertem/Racing Post Trophy. He wins it for fun and often with crackerjacks. Granted, Kingsbarns (2012) and Aristotle (1999) failed to build on their Donny wins but Saratoga Springs (1997) landed the Dante and High Chaparral (2001), Brian Boru (2002), St Nicholas Abbey (2009), Camelot (2011), Saxon Warrior (2017) and Magna Grecia (2018) all developed into elite performers with seven Classics and numerous other G1 prizes between them.

The Hype Factor

Aidan has come perilously close to exceeding his allotted superlative quota for the year with St Mark’s Basilica but Seamie Heffernan has filled the Coolmore hype man role seamlessly by telling the RP’s David Jennings that “Luxembourg has everything. He’s never done anything but show me he’s got class… he’s my favourite horse in Ballydoyle.” And the beat goes on…

The Camelot Factor

It’s almost ten years to the day since Camelot waltzed clear in this race and it took the subsequently disgraced Encke to deny him a historic Triple Crown in 2012. Camelot has also been unlucky at stud with two of his very best – Santa Barbara and Sir Dragonet – meeting fatal setbacks recently. However, there is a feeling that some of his stock fail to build on rich early promise - and that’s something to bear in mind longer term.

The Time and Form Factor

Luxembourg has a Timeform rating of 118p for his Beresford success against rivals who are useful though unexceptional. That is good enough to win an average renewal of the Vertem and leaves him just 4lb behind the Dewhurst winner and Guineas favourite Native Trail. It’s worth noting that 118 involves a 6lb upgrade for ease of victory and Rowlands concurs with his former colleagues, citing a closing 3f split of 34.18s as evidence that “Luxembourg will prove a good deal better than the bare Beresford form.” So far so persuasive. But why am I not completely convinced?

The Inexperience Factor

Perhaps it’s because Timeform went in deep on High Definition after last year’s Beresford (Simon was less convinced) but it would be wrong to visit the subsequent sins of that frustrating colt on this year’s model. No, concerns about Luxembourg centre more on what will happen if he gets drawn into a battle on Saturday. We know he can quicken – that much is clear from both his wins – but RTV’s Fran Berry noted how immature he still looked in the paddock at the Curragh and his high head carriage and drift to the right once in front suggest he is clearly still learning on the job.

The Donny Factor

Ryan Moore rides Luxembourg for the first time on Saturday and, with Godolphin having laid down impressive Classic markers with Native Trail and Coroebus, this takes on the appearance of a very important race indeed for the Ballydoyle lads. Bayside Boy has already shown that he can mix it at the top level with his staying-on Dewhurst third, while Sissoko looks highly progressive and Royal Patronage has developed into a very smart front runner with the form of his Acomb and Royal Lodge wins looking very solid.

History relates that Luxembourg’s desire for independence from powerful neighbours gave rise to a motto translated as “we want to remain what we are.” But, as already stated, there is no room for neutrality with the equine Luxembourg. He’s a colt of huge potential. But the overall evidence suggests there are a few interesting kinks to iron out before the jug headed giraffe becomes a gazelle.

Big names in Blame Game as BCD dust settles

British Champions Day? More like Blaming Champions Day as some of racing’s heaviest hitters swapped their usual diplomacy to deliver a few sharp jabs.

Qipco boss Sheikh Fahad made himself look silly while torching the tabloids over the antics of his retained rider Oisin Murphy and Frankie did likewise when spitting the dummy because Strad didn’t get the saloon passage.

Big John Gosden joined the fun by putting Frankie on blast for his end-of-the-Palace Pier QEII show, while media scourge Big Tone Calvin took time out from firing up his Twitter base and returned to the Podcast fray to scold racing scribblers for not covering the Murphy story properly.

Meanwhile, the bloke who started Champions Day with a barrowload of tabloid blame ended it celebrating a third consecutive jockeys’ title as his support team and others wrapped their collective arms around him.

Murphy faces a crucial fork in the road

Regular readers will know the regard I have for Oisin Murphy, who is a genuine difference maker in the saddle and a highly engaging character out of it.

I have no idea whether the champion jockey has a drink problem or whether he is occasionally a problem when drunk. The two are different, if sometimes interchangeable, but I hear at least one senior rider has voiced concern about recent shenanigans and news travels fast when global racing outfits are finalising winter transfer targets.

More importantly, I know from experience that giving those with genuine issues a free pass for the chaos they cause is often just a flimsy bridge to the next blow-up.

Murphy has a loyal team and a significant media and fan base behind him who clearly care a great deal more for his wellbeing than the person he attacked in Newmarket two weeks ago. Qipco Racing Manager David Redvers insists he is “very much part of our family” and signed off by saying “whatever help Oisin needs, he will get.”

It’s a refrain that will resonate with anyone who has walked this path with a friend or family member and Britain’s champion jockey is blessed to have backers like Redvers. There are millions who need help in these tough times. But only those who genuinely want help and embrace it come through like true champs.

Buick the bet to go one better in 2022

Need and want are also key words where Murphy’s main rival is concerned with 2022 in mind.

William Buick doesn’t need a jockeys’ championship to be recognised as a world-class rider – but it’s fair to conclude that he wants one more than ever after chasing Murphy in vain for a second year running.

It doesn’t matter that Buick outscored Oisin by 20 to 10 in British Group races and 5 to 2 in G1 wins on home soil this year. Nor does it matter that he would probably be celebrating his first title but for a damaging eleven-day whip ban sustained when winning the Ascot Stakes aboard Reshoun.

What matters is that Buick has surely travelled too far down the title-chasing road to turn back now. Time will tell whether Murphy’s suggestion that he may place less emphasis on the title next year comes to pass.

But Buick’s agent Tony Hind – who has won titles with Richard Hughes, Moore and Jim Crowley – left Luck On Sunday viewers in no doubt that the next title will be hunted with even more ferocity than the last one.

Hind clearly wants it, while Buick almost certainly feels that he needs it to avoid being tagged with the late Walter Swinburn as one of the greatest never to win it.

And, to borrow a slogan straight from the Mad Men era used to seduce America’s manly men into believing they deserved to drive the Buick motor company’s Riviera model:

“You’re due. Definitely due.”

Ready to jump to it as winter game gathers pace

The winter wardrobe has been dusted down and it’s off to Carlisle for Racing TV and Aintree on a jolly as a new jumps campaign gathers momentum this weekend.

I have absolutely no doubt that the next few months will contain the usual quota of grumbles about small fields, good horses kept in bubble wrap and late abandonments followed by another spring of Irish horses showing how it’s really done.

But they will also contain some spectacular racing and a raft of engaging stories served up by a richly varied cast who, with few exceptions, are in the game purely because they adore it.

The journey back over Shap Summit from Carlisle can be long and dark if you’ve got soaked and backed a few losers but the weather is glorious. This is the first winter in five that I’ve been able to go jumping. And, like thousands of others, I’m really looking forward to it.

Silence reigns as Gosden faces BHA scrutiny

Isn’t it strange how one section of sports media sees a story where others see tumbleweed?

No sooner had Radio 4’s Today programme wrapped up the football news at 6.30 on Thursday morning than presenter Garry Richardson told us that “one of racing’s leading trainers John Gosden could face a fine or even a suspension from the sport after it emerged that one of his horses tested positive for a prohibited substance last year.”

Reporter Laura Scott went on to outline how Franconia returned a positive urine test for ketamine and other substances after winning at Newbury in June 2020 and that Gosden needs to prove they were not administered intentionally to avoid a potentially lengthy ban.

A Google search for ‘Gosden, Franconia, ketamine’ came up blank. Nothing on the RP website or this one, either. It’s all a bit odd. But I wonder whether racing’s latest version of radio silence would be observed if certain other handlers were up on the same charge?

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