Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Dave Massey

Recommended Bets: November 15

2pts e.w Ballyandy in 3.00 Cheltenham at 9/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) (minimum 8/1)

1pt win Moroder in 1.00 Fontwell at 13/2 (minimum 6/1)

1pt Fortultous in 11.40 Southwell at 6/1 (minimum 5/1)

1pt win Young John in 12.10 Southwell at 5/1 (minimum 9/2)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Ever Reliable - 3.00 Cheltenham - Ballyandy

Whilst others may have claims of improvement to come, if you’re looking for something more solid with proven soft ground form at Cheltenham, then you need look no further than top weight Ballyandy.

Capable of mixing it in top company when he’s on song, he ran right to the best of his form when second to Sceau Royal in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las on his latest start, and given the winner has franked that with a ready win in the Elite Hurdle last weekend, it looks form you can hang your hat on.

He showed there that carrying big weights in quality handicaps does not faze him, and you can argue that he ought to be carrying a pound or two more for that run too. With the ground likely to turn very soft/heavy after racing Saturday, that will suit him, and go against a few of his main rivals at the same time.

We'll take the 9/1 on offer with those bookies going five places but at the time of writing there's 8/1 with as many as six places, too.

Moroder To Prove A Hit - 1.00 Fontwell - Moroder

Moroder has been on my tracker as one to watch when going over fences. I was present for both his bumper starts, firstly at Plumpton where he was utterly clueless, yet still ran on in taking fashion for second, and he’d clearly learnt plenty from that when showing a good attitude to score from the front at Uttoxeter.

They’re wasting little time in getting this giant of a horse over fences after just the four hurdles starts, and he showed plenty on his only handicap start in that sphere, possibly a shade unlucky not to win at Warwick back in March, twice denied a clear run, yet beaten just 1½l in third.

This is by no means an easy race to start his chasing career off in, but he went well fresh last year so the absence is not an issue, and he handles soft ground fine. Win lose or draw, he’s one I’ll be following this season.

Get Lucky With Fortultous - 11.40 Southwell - Fortultous

Grimsthorpe Castle was a ready winner over C&D last week, but that was his first win in 16 starts and makes only limited appeal in an attempt to follow that win up under a penalty here.

There’s little Fibresand form on show, but Fortultous (yes, I thought it was Fortuitous too, and now my pun doesn’t make any sense, but I’m not changing it, so there) showed more on his first start for Tony Carroll here two weeks ago, making the long odds-on Beat The Heat pull out all the stops to get on top, and given the winner went in again last week, the form looks solid enough.

In fact, form lines through Beat The Heat give Fortultous the beating of Grimsthorpe Castle and although it might not be as simple as that, there might well be improvement to come from him, having only had the five starts, and I’d have him favourite here.

Back Up In Trip Is Key - 12.10 Southwell - Young John

Puchita’s more of a Southwell regular than Simon Mapletoft these days, and whilst it’s hard to knock anything she’s been doing over the past few weeks, it isn’t hard to think the handicapper has her in his grip now. She’s never won at 7f either, and a place may be the best she can hope for.

With Roundel a bit disappointing here last week, Fieldsman, for all he acts on the track, yet to win here in ten starts and Equidae looking a shadow of himself at present, it gives Young John the chance to get back on the scoresheet.

It was a much better effort in a first time tongue-tie here a couple of weeks ago, staying on well in the latter stages to finish a 1½l fifth to Pearl Of Qatar in a 6f handicap here. He’s twice a winner over 7f, has a course win to his name and is now over a stone lower than his last winning mark. Expect him to be prominent throughout before getting on top late.

Niiiice... - 2.55 Southwell - Jazz Legend

A weak affair in which the 19-race maiden Kyllachy Warrior has been made favourite pretty much shows us what we’re dealing with. In the interests of balance, he’s probably the right favourite on his form here, and he came agonisingly close to breaking his duck last time, but all the same, if he’s the jolly, there must be some value elsewhere.

I was convinced, having barely beaten a horse home for a year, that Jazz Legend was all but gone at the game but no, he proved me wrong by running a 6l fourth here last time, his best effort for a long time.

I’ll argue that race was stronger than this - winner Moveonup is better than a Class 6 horse, and the second and third are solid yardsticks for the track - so if that wasn’t a fluke, and he is about to find some form, then he’s got a decent chance from this lowly mark at a track where his last three wins have come at.

You’d want 20-1 plus, even with four places on offer for each-way purposes, and at that I’d be a player. That’s not available at the time of going to print, but there's every chance it will be come the morning.

Posted at 1800 on 14/11/20

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