The Sky Bet Sunday Series kicks off at Musselburgh on Sunday

Sky Bet Sunday Series: Pace map in focus at Musselburgh

By Sporting Life

Horse Racing

Sun July 25, 2021 · 4y ago

The Sky Bet Sunday Series kicks off at Musselburgh on Sunday and we take a look at the 5.15 handicap sprint with the help of a Timeform pace map.

Timeform Pace Maps - Explained

Tom Heslop, Timeform: "What sets Timeform pace maps apart is that the model looks at the run-styles of horses but also at factors like jockey, draw, days off, and most importantly the run style of other horses in the race. The last factor means we can better predict who the most likely leader is, or who is likely to sit out the back, so in a race that lacks front runners which potentially means a slower pace, the model will try identify the most likely leader, who may be most advantaged by the race conditions."

For an in-depth article on how Timeform's pace maps are formulated, click here.

Paul Mulrennan on Sky Bet Sunday Series

RACE IN FOCUS

5.15: Sky Bet Sunday Series Sprint Handicap (5f)

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Timeform's pace map of the 5.15 at Musselburgh on Sunday

The five-furlong course at Musselburgh can suit those berthed towards the stands' rail (the right hand rail from the traditional head-on camera view) if they get the fractions right on the front end.

It's a sharp sprint track with a left-hand kink around three furlongs from home and high numbers have traditionally performed well.

For an example take a look at the Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap at Musselburgh on April 3 this year, when Fashion Advice (stall 16) beat Afandem (stall 15) in a stands' side one-two.

However, like Paul Mulrennan says in the above video, using too much energy early on in a bid to get a prominent stands' rail position can have an adverse effect in the closing stages, giving those drawn lower a chance to get into things.

Using Timeform's advanced pace map data allows you to make an informed decision as to how a race might pan out, and Sunday's sprint handicap at 5.15 makes for an interesting puzzle.

The graphic tells us that there are two horses that might want to be right on the speed according to their historical running styles and other factors as displayed by the dots on the far right of the picture, with a handful of horses likely to be prominent according to the next column on the left.

One of those two likely front-running racers, ABEL HANDY, is an interesting betting proposition.

He's likely to be a big price judging by his poor form this season, but he has dropped 11lb in five runs this year to a mark of 74 and this is his first run back at Musselburgh since he made all along the stands' rail here in the May of 2019 off a handicap mark of 87.

That's one way of looking at it, but if he performs like he has done this season he's unlikely to keep all 16 horses to his inside at bay.

With little other pace towards the stands' side perhaps form horse THE BELL CONDUCTOR can get into this from stall 10.

He won at Beverley last time out after running prominently throughout and, judging by that pace map, he could well race close up and pounce late on just like he did in victory last time.

Another view might be that with seven sprinters highlighted that like to get on with things the pace up front could collapse and allow the hold-up merchants to get into contention.

That could bring WATER OF LEITH, the ex-Jim Goldie-trained horse into things.

Now trained by Rebecca Menzies, the son of Kodiac was eased into things from the rear by Charlie Bennett when second at Haydock last time and the tactics almost paid off before Macho Pride put the race to bed late on.

That is certainly how Timeform sees it: Prominent racers are usually favoured at this trip here but the pace is forecast to be very strong and that seems sure to move the advantage away from THE BELL CONDUCTOR (IRE) to WATER OF LEITH (IRE).