Ben Linfoot Newbury Ladbrokes Trophy day Talking Points | Stone-cold placement from Nicholls

Charlie Hall form under the microscope

There isn’t a Denman in the Ladbrokes Trophy this year, but that’s okay. Special things wouldn’t be special if they happened every time, would they?

The nearest we got was Topofthegame, for the same connections. It’s a shame injury prevented the 165-rated chaser from trying to put forward his Gold Cup claims by lumping 11-12 around Newbury, but here we are.

Ballyoptic is your top-rated off 162.

But I wouldn’t be lured into thinking this is a sub-standard renewal just because there’s no chaser nudging an official rating of 170 in the line-up. There are some closely-matched rivals in here, as a congested top-of-the-market tells you, and it might well still have a bearing on the Cheltenham Blue Riband.

If it does it’s likely the Charlie Hall Chase form has come to the fore. Opinion-splitter Cyrname won that race and we might get a better idea as to the merits of his A1 performance through the second, third and fifth, who all line up in the Ladbrokes Trophy.

Vinndication leads a two-pronged attack from the in-form Kim Bailey team, the interesting Two For Gold his other runner, with the Charlie Hall second looking to have all the qualities a Gold Cup contender needs.

He’s got Cheltenham form, he’s a relentless galloper and he jumps well, and he just looks like the sort of unflashy grinder that often goes so well in the big one.

Rated 161, he has to take another step up to be considered a potential winner of the Gold Cup, but a big performance in this race, which he looks tailor made for considering the above qualities, would be just that.

I wonder if he wouldn’t have minded a wetter week, though, and the ground could be a key factor on Saturday. It’s Good, Good to Soft in places, with minimal rain forecast, and the mud lovers could be outpaced early with bags of prominent runners in the line-up.

Aye Right, the Charlie Hall third, has plenty of good ground form and it would be unfair to label him as a one-dimensional mudlark, but he looks so comfortable in testing ground that I think he would’ve preferred plenty more cut as well.

Which brings us onto the Charlie Hall fifth, LA BAGUE AU ROI. She ran a blinder at Wetherby in unsuitable soft conditions, just tiring in the ground late on after going well throughout, and the handicapper has cut her some slack with this career-low chase mark of 145.

A dual-Grade One winner on ground with ‘Good’ in the description, she’s three from three at Newbury and she would’ve won a handicap off a 4lb higher mark at Perth just two starts ago but for clobbering the last.

Her jumping has been an issue when the ground has ridden soft, but she’s a lovely jumper off a firmer terrain, and this is her second start back from Warren Greatrex’s magic wind surgery.

I can see her going well in a prominent position under Richard Johnson, and while she wouldn’t want to get into a pace battle with the likes of Two For Gold, Secret Investor and Aye Right, that little niggle is compensated for by lovely odds of 25/1.

And if we can’t have a Denman, we may as well go for one at a price.

Nicholls leaves no Stone unturned

'Any horse which wins a Hurdle Race or Steeple Chase for the first time from February 1st, 2020 until April 25th, 2020 (both dates inclusive) will be regarded as a “Novice” and eligible to run in Novice Hurdle Races or Novice Steeple Chases as the case may be until November 30th, 2020.'

So said the BHA, and who could make the most of this novice extension? You got it, Paul Nicholls OBE, 11-times National Hunt Champion Trainer.

SOUTHFIELD STONE won his first Steeple Chase on February 1, 2020, making the most of his experience at Musselburgh on his fourth chasing start, and his run in the Grade 2 Ladbrokes John Francome Novices’ Chase at Newbury on Saturday, November 28, will be his eighth go over the bigger obstacles.

That’s as much chasing experience as the rest of the field put together and even though he has to give 3lb to everything else in the line-up I’m surprised to see he’s 6/1 against this opposition.

Last time out he had what turned out to be an impossible task trying to give the same penalty to the highly-promising Protektorat and I doubt that will be the case again here - he’d certainly be unlucky to bump into one of that standard again, anyway.

And his previous start was a win over subsequent Paddy Power Gold Cup hero Coole Cody (see the Twitter, above), while these just-about-Good ground conditions are right up his street. He’s bred for three miles, too, and it could eke out even more improvement.

The only surprise is that Nicholls hasn’t found a little novice chase for him somewhere on Monday, to really squeeze the most out of his elongated novice status. He looks a bet at 6s.

Skelton handicappers to note

There are two Dan Skelton handicappers to keep an eye on this Saturday. Well, there are probably more, but there are two I’m keen on watching without backing at Newbury.

First up is CAPTAIN CHAOS, a project I’m frankly becoming obsessed with.

Here’s a reminder of his recent record in chronological order:

With blinkers: 1-1-4-1-5; without blinkers: 12-14-8; with blinkers: 2-2-6; without blinkers: 6-PU; with cheekpieces: 2-PU; with blinkers: 2-1; without blinkers: PU-PU.

Skelton runs him without headgear again in the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase and I must confess I’ll be following his progress closely, even if he's falling out of the back of the tele, wondering if and how many pounds might be shaved off this time.

Down to 140 after his Bangor flop, a few more to get him into the 130s would be tremendous ahead of the headgear, probably blinkers, returning at some point, hopefully at Warwick for the Classic Chase in which he was a superb second last season.

And then there’s stablemate MARRACUDJA who is interestingly turned out quickly after being dropped 4lb on Tuesday as he races for The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy in the closing handicap chase.

Down to 139 now, this is the first time he’s been dropped into the 130s since he won by 11 lengths at Wetherby last Christmas.

Clearly, he’s getting towards well-handicapped territory and it’s hard to predict what they’ll do with him tactically as he’s sometimes held-up in exaggerated fashion, while on other occasions, like last Saturday at Ascot, he races prominently.

As tempting as he is given his falling mark, which has dropped 15lb in four runs, I’ll be taking a watching brief for now, as this looks a hot little race anyway with some in-form types likely to dominate.

Posted at 1145 GMT on 27/11/20

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