Alex Hammond is back with her latest blog as she looks ahead to the last two days of the November Meeting at Cheltenham.
Who is the most likely winner of Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup?
I’m writing this on Friday morning and it’s absolutely tipping it down where I live, which is thirty odd miles away from Cheltenham and it looks like they are getting the same weather there. Storm Claudia (nothing to do with The Traitors) has brought a deluge of rain which means officials are monitoring conditions. Not ideal ahead of a three day fixture, but we are where we are.
So, top of the ground horses are unlikely to thrive this weekend. That brings Sky Bet’s 100/30 favourite Jagwar into play for the Paddy Power Gold Cup as he is versatile when it comes to underfoot conditions.
Sam Thomas has a few chances over the weekend, and Vincenzo is one of them. The trainer is operating at a 71% strike rate at the time of writing and Vincenzo could have more to offer over fences after a strong start chasing last season.
Cheltenham is a happy hunting ground for last year’s winner Il Ridoto, and he should be sharper for his reappearance at Chepstow last month. He’s taking the same path into the race this time round. He’s been a regular in this race with his record reading 4th, 3rd, and 1st.
Panic Attack is one of three in the race for Dan Skelton. She has had her issues over the years but she’s consistent. She’ll need to bring her A-game to the table off her mark and in this company.
You’d be in profit if you’d backed all of Gavin Cromwell’s runners at Cheltenham over the years and he sends two over for this. Thecompanysergeant is the first string and the mount of Keith Donoghue, and his second runner is The Other Mozzie. The yard is a little quiet now, but he has been amongst the winners. Thecompanysergeant was a close second to Jagwar in the TrustATrader Plate at the festival in March and he’s considerably better off at the weights.
Comingupeasy is one of two in this for fellow Irish trainer Henry de Bromhead. This horse is still on the up. His other runner is the mare, Theatre Native, who will be ridden by Sean Bowen.
I feel that Jagwar is a worthy favourite but it’s the start of a long road for this giant of a horse, so at the prices will take him on with Vincenzo, the 5/1 second favourite.
Do you have a likely longshot in mind for the November Meeting feature as well?
It might be worth taking a chance on the Venetia Williams trained Hunter Legend with the knowledge that her horses usually thrive with significant cut in the ground. He’s an 11/1 shot and thrives in soft conditions.
This is tougher company than he’s ever faced but he’ll have stamina in reserve and a nice racing weight.
How do you tackle Sunday's Greatwood Hurdle, with the ground expected to be riding soft on the final day?
The race has attracted a big field, and it’s not been a great race for favourites. We’ll have to wait until closer to race time to see who has that millstone round their neck with Celtic Dino, Alexei, Mirabad and Serious Challenge vying for position as market leader.
Of that quartet the Fergal O’Brien trained Serious Challenge may handle conditions best and Celtic Dino and Alexei may be worst equipped to deal with testing ground. Serious Challenge is very experienced with some smart flat form for Jim Bolger and a rating on the level of 100.
That could make him well handicapped over hurdles and he’s top of my shortlist at this time.
Do you have a fancy in this year's Troytown Handicap Chase or anything on the Southern National card at Fontwell this Sunday?
I’ve haven’t studied the Troytown in any depth, but you could do worse than go with a Gordon Elliott trained runner at a big price.
Will Do falls into that category and whilst he’s still a maiden over fences, he’s only had nine goes and they have come in hot contests. He was a respectable third in the National Hunt Chase behind Haiti Couleurs at the festival back in March and is a couple of pounds lower in the weights for this. The ground will suit and he stays well.
Over at Fontwell, Unanswered Prayers is taking a similar route as when he won the Southern National last season with a prep at Cheltenham and then on to Fontwell.
He’s not badly handicapped on last year’s performance, and his trainer Chris Gordon is in great form. I don’t think he’d appreciate the ground becoming too testing but at the time of writing it’s good to soft, soft in places.
If it does deteriorate then Livin On Luco is one to have on side.
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