Michael Williamson crunches the data to find two possible bets in the MND Jockey Cup at Musselburgh on Sunday.
The Sky Bet Sunday Series returns to our screens on Sunday with a highly competitive Musselburgh card aiming to pick up where the 2022 edition left off. During six fixtures in the unique window, viewers were treated to victories by subsequent Royal Ascot (Heredia) and Cesarewitch (Run For Oscar) winners as well as the epic climax to the series with Evaluation losing out by a nose on a £100k bonus for connections.
The Sunday evening slot remains an obvious window to showcase the sport and both Racing TV and ITV are to be commended for seeing it as an opportunity to try new ideas to engage newer viewers to racing.
Fresh for 2023 is the creation of the MND Jockey Cup – an on-the-day competition between the jockeys for a £10k prize which will add an extra dimension for an already excellent day’s racing and an even stronger incentive to support an important initiative for the sport.
Jockeys often don’t get the exposure during a racing broadcast that they deserve and hopefully over the course of the summer some of our less-known personalities will get a chance to come to the fore.
The Cup will be decided on a points system, with 10 going to the winner of a race, 5 to second and 3 points for a third place. In the event two jockeys finish the day on the same number of points, the prize will be shared.
Solving the puzzle will again be another key element of the Sunday Series this year, with those outside of the racing bubble frequently citing complexities in understanding form and being unable to feel like they’ve made an informed selection ahead of a race off-putting. It is a problem that the industry continues to need to do better at, so that our great sport can continue to attract new fans.
So, with that in mind – can we solve the puzzle of predicting this Sunday’s Jockey Cup without recourse to an oft cited SUPERCOMPUTER that seems to grab the SEO clicks these days?
The starting point are the Timeform Tissue prices, which are for those not familiar with the terminology are the forecast starting prices for each of the horses. These are compiled by experts from Timeform who preview every race in the UK and Ireland and are based on the variables that combine as a probability of them winning.
This can differ to a tipping selection, which then factors in the all-important price, but the relationship is a close one.
For those less familiar with the sport, we can simplify this further into an Expected Position (xP). In a theoretical three-horse race an analyst or model may establish the below chances of winning:
This would then lead us to say the most likely result is that Horse A will win, Horse B will come second, and Horse C will finish last.
Taking these expected positions along with their associated probabilities, we can simulate the day’s racing many times over. If using a great enough number of simulations, we then end up roughly with results of Horse A winning 50% of the time, Horse B winning 40% of the time and Horse C tasting success in one of every 10 simulations.
These simulated results can then be used to project the final standings of the Jockey Cup as well as telling us some interesting facts about how it might be won...
2 is the magic number
In 79% of simulations, the winning jockey has managed to scoop at least two of the races and on only 8% of occasions was it not enough to win the cup.
You have to be in it to win it
Perhaps the least surprising statement of this preview is that having more quality rides help your winning chance. With only 11 of the 35 jockeys having 3 or more rides, the pool of likely winners is narrowed significantly. There is a 5% chance of one of the remaining 24 riders winning, but obviously a lot needs to run their way.
The Key Races
Although the maiden is the most winnable on paper (and having good rides in it significantly boosts the chances of co-favourites Conor Beasley (xP of 1) and Oisin Orr (xP of 3)), the simulations suggest the pivotal contests are races 3 (The Fillies Handicap) and race 6 (The 7f handicap). Wins in this leads to overall success more than the others, with the first race on the card being the least impactful due to many of the apprentices having limited chances later.
Sky Bet Sunday Series - Jockey Cup Musselburgh April 30
Odds via Sky Bet
- 11/4 Connor Beasley & Oisin Orr
- 9/2 Ben Curtis & Joe Fanning
- 6/1 Billy Loughnane
- 10/1 Clifford Lee
- 28/1 Paul Mulrennan
The Key Players
Just 5 jockeys are calculated as having a 10% or better chance of winning the Jockey Cup and (slightly disappointingly from a tipping perspective!) feature amongst the favourites with Sky Bet:
Conor Beasley is given the nod amongst the co-favourites by the model, with the forecast favourite (Expected Position of 1) Myconian in the maiden supplemented by good chances for Elim (xP of 3), Active Duty (xP of 2) and Gioia Cieca (xP of 3). Only 3 winners in April from a healthy book of rides and an average record at Musselburgh might be slightly off putting, but he seems the right favourite at this stage and can be backed at a bigger price than the model suggests is worth taking.
For those wanting to play at bigger prices, it may pay to take a chance on one of sport’s rising stars Billy Loughnane. The overround in the market makes for a slightly shorter price than the model suggests, but with a career strike rate to date of around 20% and good chances in the opener (rides Jer Batt with an Expected Position of 1) and that seemingly key third race (Chealamy, xP of 4), you will at least know your fate relatively early on.
A puzzle likely not solved, but hopefully better defined to help enjoyment of the Jockey Cup. Here’s to another great Sunday Series.
Horses at Musselburgh with an Expected Position (xP) of 1:
1. Jer Batt - After 4 months off, made a winning stable debut in maiden at Southwell (5f) in February. Bumped into an improver when runner-up at the same C&D on his handicap bow 6 weeks later, so he's a major player with Billy Loughnane on board.
2. Myconian - Magna Grecia colt looked sharp when winning 13-runner newcomers race at Saint-Cloud 38 days ago, always holding a narrow advantage and responding to pressure when tackled. Should progress.
3. Iato’s Angel - Won 1 of her 6 starts in 2022 and acquitted herself well in defeat in 3 AW outings this year before resuming winning ways back on turf at Redcar (10f, heavy) 2 weeks ago, pulling clear with a subsequent winner. Big shout up only 4 lb.
4. Notimeforanother - Second in a turf bumper in the autumn and has taken very well to AW Flat this year, winning 1m Newcastle novice before proving well suited by the step up to 1¾m when making a successful handicap debut at Southwell last month. 6 lb rise looks manageable for a 4-y-o who should have more to offer.
5. Out Of Shadows - Gelded/off 6 months before landing 7f handicap at Wolverhampton 20 days ago. Up 5 lb but he's still not taken lightly back on turf now up in distance.
6. Maywake - Well handicapped and back to form when third at Redcar on return, finishing strongly having suffered interference. Well drawn and makes plenty of appeal.
7. Monsieur Kodi - Returned with a bang when taking 16-runner handicap over C&D (soft) 22 days ago. 4 lb higher now but not taken lightly.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
