Sky Bet Sunday Series: Jockey Cup preview for Hamilton

Hamilton plays host to the exciting second leg of the 2023 Sunday Series, with both human and equine rivalries quickly renewed from Musselburgh.

No fewer than three of the winners from a fortnight ago step back onto the track seeking back-to-back success, alongside three runners looking to go one place better.

One such victor is The Thin Blue Line, who sealed a dramatic inaugural Jockey Cup success for Conor Beasley by pipping his fellow challenger Billy Loughnane to the post in scooping the £10k prize. The theme running throughout the card provided a compelling narrative across both broadcasters of the meeting and gave opportunity for a more personal insight into their careers.

Loughnane on ITV in particular provided compelling viewing, with a window into how he diligently prepares for races and is dealing with his turbo charged start to his career. Indeed, operating at such a high strike rate to burn through both his 7lb and 5lb claims has propelled him into opportunities he could have only dreamed of this time last year - including a ride in last weekend’s 1000 Guineas.

So are we set for round 2 of Beasley vs Loughnane?

To answer, we’ll use the same methodology as we did at Musselburgh to forecast the probability of each jockey being fortunate enough to take home at least a share of a £10k bounty.

As a reminder, the starting point are the Timeform Tissue prices. For those not familiar with the terminology these are the forecast starting prices for each of the horses compiled by experts from Timeform who preview every race in the UK and Ireland and are based on the variables that combine as a probability of them winning. Bookmakers and professional bettors will frequently use algorithms to derive their own tissue prices, some of which will attempt to simulate the outcome of each race thousands of times based on these variables.

In the first of these previews, these were simplified further into an Expected Position (xP) with a simple example shared with three horses running in a race which can be found here.

We can then use these expected positions along with their associated probabilities to simulate the full Hamilton card several thousand times to arrive at probabilistic view of what might unfold on Sunday….

Beasley Bliss Unlikely

The season of Musselburgh’s winning jockey took off after Jockey Cup success, with 7 winners already in the month of May compared to the 3 he had in April heading into the Sunday Series. Despite being reunited with his new favourite The Thin Blue Line (Expected Position of 3), with only 2 other rides on the card he’s up against it if he wants to go back-to-back.

In contrast, that narrow defeat at Musselburgh has seen the runner up Billy Loughnane only taste victory once this month and will aim to get back on track here. He has five rides on the day, with his best chance being Spoof (Expected Position 1) – ironically up against The Thin Blue Line.

Unlike a fortnight ago, the model puts their combined chances of success at around 6% so at the prices (Loughnane 11/2 and Beasley unquoted) it is reasonable to look elsewhere.

The Key Races

Also unlike last week, the pivotal races are this time the opening 2 contests. In particular, the opening 5 runner maiden features 3 of the top 4 jockeys in the Jockey Cup betting – with a win in this leading to overall victory in 38% of simulations. The Expected Positions (xP) for this contest are 1. Moonstone Boy (Andrew Mullen), 2. Golden Arrow (Kieran O’Neil), 3. Golden Mind (Oisin Orr), 4. Kandy House (Ben Curtis), 5. Irish Nectar (Tom Eaves).

Course Specialist

A fairly prolific winner at many tracks, Ben Curtis ranks top on most used metrics of all the meetings jockeys at the Scottish track. With 35 winners from 135 rides, he also has high a Impact Value and Rivals Beaten score (which also factor in field size as well as simple strike rates) and is very often the jockey trainers turn to when they have one lined up at the course. It is little surprise he has been chalked up as the 10/3 favourite here, with a strong book of rides including Musselburgh scorer On A Session (Expected Position 2) and Aqwaam (Expected Position 3).

Wrong Favourite?

Despite this, the model makes Curtis more like a 9/2 shot and much prefers the chances of Andrew Mullen. As mentioned earlier, the first race could likely turn out to be crucial and with the Timeform preference for Moonstone Boy over Kandy House, Mullen could get off to a flyer. With 10 points going to the winner of a race, 5 to second and 3 points for a third place he could then supplement an initial win with good chances on Course and Distance winner Hour By Hour (Expected Position 4) and Ravenscraig Castle (Expected Position 3).

He only has 4 rides on the card so it is not without a large amount of risk, but they all hold strong claims and a win coupled with placed finishes might be enough to do the business on a very competitive card. Priced at 15/2 with the model forecasting his chances at more like a 7/2 shot he clearly rates an attractive betting opportunity.

Another jockey with only 4 rides but a better than market price chance according to the model is Tom Eaves. Despite being on the outside in the opening maiden, he has good chances on Quintus Arrius (Expected Position 2) and could provide another grandstand finish on Thunder Roar in the finale. The model makes him an 8/1 chance vs a Sky Bet 10/1 so could be worth a small saver.

Click here to back Andrew Mullen and/or Tom Eaves with Sky Bet

Sky Bet MND Jockey Cup odds - Hamilton

10/3 Ben Curtis

4 Oisin Orr

11/2 Billy Loughnane

15/2 Andrew Mullen

8 Paul Mulrennan

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