Sky Bet Ebor preview: Irish raiding party assessed
Donn McClean looks at the potential Irish raiding party for the Sky Bet Ebor and feels trainer Johnny Murtagh looks to hold a very strong hand.
Mediterranean’s win in the Sky Bet Ebor in 2001 was noteworthy for several reasons. In thwarting a gamble on the Sir Mark Prescott-trained favourite Foreign Affairs, the Sadler’s Wells colt was providing Aidan O’Brien with his first win in the race. Also, he was the second three-year-old to win the race in two years, following Give The Slip’s win in 2000, and the fifth in seven years, so you probably would have got a fair price about no three-year-old Ebor winner in the next 20 years.
As well as that, Mediterranean was the first Irish-trained winner of the Ebor since Bonne Noel won the race in 1973. It was another seven years before the next, the Willie Mullins-trained Sesenta, but then the Irish winners rolled: Gordon Elliott with Dirar, Johnny Murtagh with Mutual Regard, Tony Martin with Heartbreak City, Ger Lyons with Mustajeer. Five of the last 12 Ebor winners were trained in Ireland.
Of the 75 entries for the 2021 Sky Bet Ebor, 15 are trained in Ireland: eight by Willie Mullins, two by Johnny Murtagh, and one each by Karl Thornton, Noel Meade, Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien and Tony Mullins.
The Tony Mullins representative is Princess Zoe, and the Princess Zoe story just continues to roll along. The early chapters of the story are well told at this stage: rated 64 when she arrived from Germany, won four times, graduating from handicaps to the Listed Oyster Stakes, then the Group 1 Prix du Cadran.
Princess Zoe went to Royal Ascot last month and, on ground that should have been faster than ideal for her, finished second to Subjectivist in the Gold Cup. If the rains that transformed the ground from good to firm (watered) to heavy had arrived at Ascot 24 hours earlier than they did, she could be a Gold Cup winner now.
The handicapper raised Tony Mullins’ mare by 6lb for her Gold Cup run to a mark of 114, which sees her set to carry 10 stone in the Ebor, and no Ebor winner has carried more than 9st 9lb since the remarkable Sea Pigeon won the race in 1979. It looks like an arduous task. But it is reasonable to assume that, all things being equal, Joey Sheridan would ride her. Joey Sheridan has ridden Paddy Kehoe’s mare in six of her last seven races, including in the listed races and in the Gold Cup and, famously, to victory in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran when he couldn’t utilise his 5lb claim. He could claim in the Ebor, a handicap, and the young rider is massive value for his claim, which would reduce the mare’s burden to 9st 9lb.
It wouldn't be easy, but Fujaira Prince won the Ebor last year under 9st 8lb and Muntahaa won it in 2018 under 9st 9lb. It wouldn't be an insurmountable task. And a little bit of rain on the Knavemire, and you never know, there could be another chapter in the Princess Zoe story.
Interestingly, only twice in the last 10 years has the official ground for the Ebor been faster than good. It has been good five times, good to soft once and soft twice.
The Baron Samedi story is up there with the Princess Zoe story. Rated 65 before he was gelded last August, Joseph O’Brien’s horse won his next five races last season – four handicaps and a Group 2 race in France – and his first two this season – the Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan and the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup at Belmont Park – before his winning run came to an admirable end in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time.
He is a classy individual, deserving of his mark of 112, and the Ebor distance, the distance over which he won the Vintage Crop Stakes, is probably his optimum.
The make-up of the Willie Mullins Ebor team, of course, will influence the strength of the Irish challenge. A dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles, Saldier won the Galway Hurdle off a hurdles rating of 155 and under 11st 10lb last Thursday and, winner of a qualified riders’ race at Listowel over the Ebor trip, and fifth in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot off his Ebor mark, he would be a really interesting runner.
Mt Leinster would be just as interesting. Third behind his stable companion Asterion Forlonge in the Grade 1 Chanelle Pharma Novices’ Hurdle at the 2020 Dublin Racing Festival, the Beat Hollow gelding won three of his four races on the flat last season. He was impressive in beating Cape Gentleman in a qualified riders’ race at Listowel in September, and he followed up by winning the Amateur Riders’ Derby at The Curragh, a half an hour after the same Cape Gentleman had won the Irish Cesarewitch.
Mt Leinster hasn’t run since then, but it wouldn’t be surprising if his trainer has had the Ebor in mind for him for a while, and he is a horse who goes well fresh. He won his maiden at the Galway Festival on his seasonal debut last year, and his record after a break of 50 days or more reads 12221. He has run just four times on the flat, and he has the potential to go beyond his Ebor mark of 105.
Winner of the Irish Lincoln in March, Layfayette proved that he was equally adept over longer trips when he ran out an impressive winner of the Listed Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon last time. He has never been beyond a mile and a half, but Noel Meade’s horse does stay that trip well, he shapes as if he will get further, and a 2lb hike for his Lenebane win is not harsh.
Passion has run just once this season, she ran well to finish third behind Amhran Na bhFiann in the Group 2 Curragh Cup at The Curragh on Irish Derby weekend. Third behind Wonderful Tonight in the Fillies & Mares Stakes on British Champions Day at Ascot last October, Aidan O’Brien’s filly has myriad options, she is in the Yorkshire Oaks and the Lonsdale Cup at York as well as in the Ebor.
By contrast, Shanroe has just one entry at York. Karl Thornton’s horse battled on well to get the better of Pondus and land the Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Handicap at The Curragh in early June. He stays well, he has won three bumpers and two hurdle races, and the fast pace that they usually go in the Ebor should bring his stamina into play.
Johnny Murtagh is double-handed in the Ebor at this stage, and both horses are really interesting contenders. Sonnyboyliston, has already had a sighter at York, over the Ebor course and distance, in the Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup last time, and he didn’t run badly in finishing sixth behind Hukum. They didn’t go a great pace in that race, and Sonnyboyliston was held up, eighth of the 10 runners, through the early stages. He got a little out-paced when they quickened at the two-furlong marker before keeping on, in a race in which It was difficult for the hold-up horses to make inroads.
An impressive winner of a 10-furlong handicap at The Curragh on Irish Champions’ Weekend last September, when he had this year’s Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup winner Helvic Dream back in third, the Kildare Racing Club’s horse finished third behind the 2019 Juddmonte International winner Japan and last Tuesday’s Goodwood Cup winner Trueshan in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in May over a trip just short of the Ebor distance. His dam won over two miles on the flat, and he shapes as if a strongly-run race over a mile and six furlongs should suit him well.
You have had the feeling for a while now that there is a big handicap in Mirann. Winner of a 12-furlong maiden for Alain de Royer-Dupre in France as a three-year-old, he won on his first run for Johnny Murtagh at Gowran Park in June last year and, while he hasn’t won again since, his last three runs have been very good.
He was only beaten a half a length by Baby Zeus in a handicap at The Curragh on Irish Guineas weekend, when he didn’t have a clear path through the final two furlongs, and he finished off his race well to take fourth place in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot. Then last time, in a premier handicap at Leopardstown, he again finished off his race well to finish fourth behind the highly talented handicappers Mosala and Tauran Shaman over an inadequate 10 furlongs. A mile and six furlongs is probably his optimum trip, and he is another for whom the Ebor has probably been a target for a while.
Johnny Murtagh is having another tremendous season, he bagged another Group 3 race on Thursday when Ottoman Empire won the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood, in the Mirann colours of O T I Racing, and he knows what is required to win the Sky Bet Ebor, having sent out Mutual Regard to win it in 2014. He could be a key player again in the 2021 renewal.
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