Recommended bets:
2pts win Nakeeta in 3.40 York at 12/1
1pt e.w. Mountain Bell in 3.40 York at 33/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
NAKEETA, the game winner of last year’s Sky Bet Ebor Handicap under claiming rider Callum Rodriguez, is fancied to become only the second dual winner in the history of York’s signature race in Saturday’s renewal.
Iain Jardine’s gelding followed up victory on the Knavesmire with a hugely creditable fifth in the Melbourne Cup and, lightly raced so far this term, could be about to strike winning form at the right time.
Unplaced in the Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate on his first two starts, Nakeeta ran much better when taking fifth again behind Ebor favourite Stratum at Newbury last month and now gets a 4lb pull at the weights for just over a three-length beating.
That might not be enough, and Stratum (now up 8lb) is hugely respected for shrewd connections, but Nakeeta’s record at York and the likelihood of further improvement from Newbury sways me in his favour up just 3lb from last year.
From four starts on the Ebor course, the seven-year-old has won, finished second twice (including at this meeting in 2016) and fourth. So another bold show is surely on the cards and he's a better bet than the favourite at the prices.
Apart from Stratum, trainer Willie Mullins also runs the useful dual purpose performer Whisky Sour, whose chance may be improved by rain though he ran well enough on a fast surface when fifth behind another stablemate Lagostovegas in the Ascot Stakes in June when Stratum was about a length ahead of him in third.
Of the others, recent Group Three winner Teodoro is very well handicapped under a 4lb penalty compared to his new rating (set to go up another 9lb) but is not certain to stay on pedigree while Saunter is the other penalised runner in this early closing race after beating just five others at Newmarket.
Winner of last year’s November Handicap, the Ian Williams-trained gelding won over this distance in France earlier in the season and could still be progressive.
Amongst many others with chances, Crowned Eagle and Mountain Bell could also feature prominently.
The former comes from a fine family of high class middle distance runners, including Sariska and Wings Of Desire who won big races at York, while his dam Gull Wing stayed a mile and three-quarters.
An improved front-runner this season, Crowned Eagle has been absent since finishing second in a hot handicap at Haydock in early July (Teodoro fourth, Blakeney Point fifth) and could be a big player albeit likely to face competition for the lead, drawn very wide and unproven at the trip.
In contrast, Mountain Bell is a sure stayer and could run well at a big price under 5lb claimer Andrew Breslin.
Ralph Beckett’s mare won at Listed level two seasons ago and has since run well in a couple of Group races. Off the track for a couple of months but best when fresh, none of her races have been run to suit so far this season whereas the likely strong gallop here could see her making strong late gains over what could prove her ideal trip.
Posted at 1650 BST on 24/08/18.
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