Should Pretty Crystal be supplemented for 1000 Guineas? Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes Newmarket analysis

The Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes has been a good pointer to the 1000 Guineas in the last 20 years, finding four winners of the first fillies’ Classic, the starting prices of the quartet suggesting this might well be an underrated trial.

That’s understandable given the Irish, and when we say Irish we mean Aidan O’Brien, rarely run their 1000 Guineas big guns in this race, but look at the starting prices of the four 1000 Guineas winners that ran in the Nell Gwyn this century; Speciosa was 10/1 for the Guineas, Sky Lantern 10/1, Billesdon Brook 66/1 and Cachet 16/1.

Speciosa and Cachet both won the Nell Gwyn, Sky Lantern was an honourable second and Billesdon Brook was a slowly-away fourth, so it can be an important step to the first weekend in May, whether you win it or not.

That said, this year’s Nell Gwyn winner PRETTY CRYSTAL isn’t in the 1000 Guineas as I type, but trainer Richard Fahey and owner Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum and his team have a supplementary decision to make after a battling success over Dance Sequence, who was previously the Guineas favourite.

Reported to be ‘fairly straight for her return’ in the trainer’s column on these pages, she broke well under Oisin Orr, racing prominently in the bigger pack towards the stands’ side as Lexington Belle set the pace towards the far side.

Going well heading into the last three furlongs as Dance Sequence looked for racing room behind her, Brian Meehan’s Kathmandu hit the front heading into the Dip, but was quickly followed by Pretty Crystal, who handled that tricky part of the course well.

Responding kindly to pressure to get on top of Kathmandu, she showed a fine attitude to knuckle down and see off the final challenge from Dance Sequence, always holding the Godolphin filly and eventually winning by a neck.

One from five as a juvenile, that doesn’t tell the whole story, but it does explain why Fahey didn’t give the daughter of Dubawi a Guineas entry. But, like most Dubawi progeny, she looks to have got better with age and being by that sire the extra furlong in the Guineas looks likely to be well within her range, as well.

There are more trials to come, and Pretty Crystal's connections will have a keen eye on those before pressing the button on the bank transfer, but I wouldn't be quick to underestimate this trial just because the odds-on favourite was beaten in a tight and compact finish.

Fahey’s two previous Nell Gwyn winners, Barefoot Lady and Sandiva, both ran in the 1000 Guineas, finishing fifth and ninth respectively, but having proven herself over the course and that she’s trained on, supplementing Pretty Crystal for the Newmarket Guineas, rather than taking in another version abroad, looks the percentage call.

After all, Dance Sequence was only pushed out to 7/1 for the 1000 Guineas on the back of this defeat, although she did shape like the filly to take out of the race given she was a little keen in mid-division in the larger near side group.

Just in behind the pace, she was short of room behind Matrika going into the Dip, allowing Kathmandu and Pretty Crystal first run, and though she responded well to William Buick’s frantic urgings up the stands’ rail she could not pass the winner, who was too strong on the day.

Also by Dubawi, like the winner, she won the Oh So Sharp Stakes on soft ground and they could be her preferred conditions going forward, while she already looks ready to step up to a mile on this evidence.

Her Guineas aspirations were knocked, but 5/1 out to 7/1 looks a fair assessment of her chance and those odds will likely be shortened back in should we have a wet build-up to Guineas weekend.

Kathmandu was the big improver, running a huge race in third on the back of a win in an ordinary Southwell novice, although she did get a nice tow into the race from Lexington Belle when racing prominently away from the main group on the far side.

True Cyan was a bit keen out on the wing of the main pack and ran well beaten four lengths in fourth considering, the impression she made in her maiden win here probably worth remembering.

Born To Rock was a big price for Jane Chapple-Hyam but she improved stepping up two furlongs in trip, beaten just less than five lengths in sixth after having to switch around horses, and she’s worth keeping an eye on at a lesser level.

Pretty Crystal's pedigree

By John Ingles

Dubawi boasts a terrific record on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course with a better than 21% strike rate over the last five years and almost twice as many winners as the next most successful sire at the track, Frankel. It’s no coincidence of course that Charlie Appleby is the trainer with the best strike rate and most number of winners there too given Dubawi’s status as the standout stallion within the Godolphin operation.

It was the Godolphin filly Dance Sequence – a winner at both Newmarket courses last year and prominent in the 1000 Guineas betting - who was odds on to keep her unbeaten record in the Nell Gwyn Stakes but she had to give best to Dubawi’s other representative in the line-up, the Richard Fahey-trained Pretty Crystal, who is not currently engaged in the fillies’ classic.

For all his success at Newmarket, Dubawi had never sired the Nell Gwyn winner until having the first two today, and nor has he yet sired the winner of the 1000 Guineas, though he’s had more luck with his colts in the 2000 with Makfi (2010), Night of Thunder (2014) and the ill-fated Coroebus for Godolphin two years ago all being successful. Dubawi himself started the 11/8 favourite for the 2005 2000 Guineas but finished only fifth behind Footstepsinthesand after reportedly being struck into, though made amends in the Irish 2000 Guineas next time.

The homebred Pretty Crystal is the first foal out of her dam Pretty Baby who raced in the same colours of Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum and was trained by William Haggas. She won five times in all at six and seven furlongs, with the only time she was tried over a mile resulting in her finishing down the field in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot as a four-year-old, so her daughter would have to show greater reserves of stamina if connections opt to supplement her for the 1000 Guineas.

Pretty Baby was a smart filly though, earning a Timeform rating of 111, and good-topped like her daughter. Her big wins at three came in a listed race at Nottingham and the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood, while in between she suffered a narrow defeat in the Summer Stakes at York to Raven’s Lady, now the dam of smart French filly Ramatuelle who’s a 1000 Guineas possible herself. At four, Pretty Baby resumed with another Group 3 success in the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at Lingfield but she made little show in her three remaining starts that season, including when trying to win the Oak Tree again.

Pretty Baby had been a €190,000 breeze-up purchase and she’s the pick of several winners out of an unraced mare, Premiere Danseuse, from one of the Wildenstein families. Premiere Danseuse was a half-sister to Prairie Star and Pacific Rim who were both smart Group 2 winners over middle distances in France.

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