A festive feast of action and Graeme North provides his fascinating insight into the winners and losers on both sides of the Irish Sea.
Kempton’s two-day Christmas meeting has been dominated by Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls over the last ten years – except for 2020, when Dan Skelton saddled five winners – and it was ‘as you were’ again this year with Henderson sending out his best total of winners (four) since 2013 with Nicholls the only other trainer to bag two winners (Skelton, who was productive elsewhere, saddled none).
Two of his stable stars and previous Festival winners, Epatante and Shishkin, started at odds on in fields that in terms of both quality and size were disappointingly underwhelming compared to what was on offer at Leopardstown, but what did the clock told us about their performances and what their prospects might be come 2022?
Epatante was winning the Christmas Hurdle for the second time, having taken it in impressively in 2019 in a 147 timefigure en route to victory in the Champion Hurdle which she won in typical style by three lengths from Sharjah in an even better 151. Epatante has never quite matched that form since, however, albeit coming close on a few occasions, and her latest Christmas Hurdle win suggests to me she probably isn’t as good as she was, at least over two miles.
She might have travelled as strongly as usual but the electric turn of foot she once possessed wasn’t apparent in a workmanlike win over the upgraded handicapper Glory And Honour worth only 139 on the clock. Her finishing split from two hurdles out was slower than those posted the same day by stable-companions Broomfield Burg and Marie’s Rock and won’t have had either Honeysuckle or Rachael Blackmore losing any sleep.
For all the level of competition at the top of the two-mile hurdling tree isn’t what it used to be, despite Appreciate It bulking it out now he’s reportedly staying over hurdles, it strikes me that Epatante’s best chance of success at the Festival might well be in the two-and-half mile Mares Hurdle. If it is, we won’t find out until Cheltenham, however, as she’s very unlikely to run again before then.
Whether we will see Shishkin again before then too remains to be seen. Indeed, we’ll probably never know whether his appearance at Kempton after days of dithering was more to do with the absence of Energumene and Chacun Pour Soi among the declarations than a reported sparkling piece of work, but it was good to see him finally back on the racecourse.
A 164 timefigure is just shy of the career-best 165 he posted in the Wayward Lad at this meeting in 2020, mindful that a 7lb upgrade lifts that to 171, but for all that’s as good as any chaser has managed this season his performance to me at least lacked some of his old pep as he took a bit of time to master the handicapper Before Midnight before putting in a closing sectional from the second last that was barely faster than Five Star Getaway managed in the later three-mile handicap chase.
Rusty or not, the absence over the holiday period of both Chacun Pour Soi (reportedly lame again) and Energumene (also missed last year’s Festival because of lameness) leaves open the possibility of an open door for him in March.
The Champion Chase at this stage looks a race ripe for an each-way bet at a big price and Funambule Sivola might be that bet. He’s been the only one to give Shishkin any sort of race over fences when second in a 152 timefigure at Aintree last spring and he shaped very well under an aggressive ride over a trip probably too far on his reappearance in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. Widely available 33/1 quotes look far too big.
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Henderson couldn’t land the King George in which his Chantry House was surprisingly sent off favourite ahead of the Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, but, like Chantry House, Minella Indo also ended up being pulled up after going clear upsides the 2020 champion Frodon in a race run at a stronger gallop than the earlier Kauto Star Novices’ Chase won by Bravemansgame (winning timefigures 141 and 120 respectively).
The pace in the King George was strong over the first few fences then really turned up again after the fourth last when Saint Calvados put it up to Frodon, ruining his own chances as well as those of his stable-companion Clan Des Obeaux, allowing Tornado Flyer (likely to have won anyway) and Asterion Forlonge to come through before the latter came down once again.
This form has a slightly uneasy look to it, but Saint Calvados was second in the 2020 Ryanair when he posted a very decent 166 timefigure, and that’s probably the race for him again.
Bravemansgame looked a good prospect once again in the Kauto Star, for all the stamina-laden Ahoy Senor made it easy for him under a cautious ride, but it’s out in the open he will swerve Cheltenham to fish the calmer waters at Aintree and connections’ minds will only have been focused further in that respect by a Jaws-like performance from Galopin Des Champs At Leopardstown, more of which later.
Alan King isn’t a trainer with the ammunition over jumps he used to have, but he’ll surely be at Cheltenham with Edwardstone who extended his winning streak over fences to three with a performance as good both visually and on the clock (160 timefigure again) as he registered in the Henry VIII at Sandown.
Shishkin (as well as Altior and Sprinter Sacre) have used the Wayward Lad as a springboard to Sporting Life Arkle success, but for all he’s a better chaser than hurdler, Edwardstone hasn’t really cut much ice in any of his previous visits to Cheltenham (ran in the County Hurdle last year) and much like Nicholls, King will surely have been concerned by events across the water this week, Ferny Hollow the aggressor in this instance.
Much as Henderson and Nicholls have dominated at Kempton, Leopardstown’s Christmas fixture has been dominated by Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Henry de Bromhead. Eleven winners for Mullins this time around might seem a good haul, but it’s still short of the fourteen he landed in 2016 or thirteen last year!
Pride of place of Mullins’ winners on the clock goes to the aforementioned Ferny Hollow, who landed the G1 Racing Post Novice Chase with a length-and-half defeat of the previously imperious Riviere d’Etel (who was receiving 13lb) in an outstanding timefigure for a novice having just his second start over fences of 163.
In her three previous wins over fences, the last of which had seen her record a 151 timefigure at Cork, Riviere d’Etel had made all the running but she had to play second fiddle throughout to the bold-jumping Ferny Hollow who is surely the one to beat in the Arkle.
If Ferny Hollow was spectacular, Galopin Des Champs in a beginners chase later in the meeting was probably even more so, and on his chasing debut too, posting a 158 timefigure as he put 22 lengths between himself with his rider sat motionless after the last. Last seen winning the G1 War Of Attrition over three miles at the Punchestown Festival, a victory that followed his easy win in the Martin Pipe, Galopin Des Champs is progressing so fast that the level he might reach back over three miles with this experience under his belt is likely to be far too good for anything that might dare to take him on in the Festival Chase, a race the Irish promise look like having a stranglehold on if Bravemansgame keeps his powder dry.
On the clock, Sharjah was the third-highest rated of Mullins’ winners, posting a 157 (he has run faster before) in winning the Matheson for the fourth time and will no doubt be on the premises again in the Champion Hurdle.
Klassical Dream’s timefigure in getting the better of the reigning Stayers’ Hurdle champion Flooring Porter in the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle was 153. It was a both a welcome return to the track for the former for the first time since winning the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival and a return to form for the latter that adds plenty of spice to the next running of the Stayers now that Champ – who I would still prefer should all three run – is back in the mix.
Haut En Couleurs, third in last season’s Triumph, was another Mullins winner to put himself in the Arkle picture with an authoritative debut win over fences in a smart 143 timefigure. Of his other high-profile winners, Sir Gerhard shortened up appreciably (though probably undeservedly) in the Sky Bet Supreme betting after winning his hurdling debut readily enough in a very modest 99 timefigure, while Icare Allen looks headed for the Triumph but will need to improve a fair bit on the 103 he posted here.
Galvin took the honours among those winners not trained by Mullins with a last-gasp defeat of A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase in a timefigure of 155 and supposedly now heads straight to Cheltenham.
Again, though, a bit like the King George, this seems on the clock a race where the sum might not be quite as good as its parts with several of the runners clearly not so good as they once were and A Plus Tard hitting 1.08 in running but oddly finding himself outspeeded by a seemingly stronger stayer.
2020 Albert Bartlett third Fury Road had 2011 Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier back in third when winning the G1 Fort Leney novice chase in 147 on his third run over fences, but authoritative as this win was he lacks the potential of Galopin Des Champs.
Once thought a superstar, Envoi Allen might have won the G1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase but was unimpressive (134 timefigure) and will surely fall between two stools at Cheltenham, while Fil Dor, and not for the first time either, was another whose finishing sectionals (around a second a half slower than Sir Gerard from two out) really ought to have been a lot better given the slow pace (timefigure 51) at which the race was run, and he looks a dubious favourite for the Triumph Hurdle.
Mighty Potter looks to be a proper horse on the up, however, and his connections now face the pleasing puzzle of choosing between the Supreme or the Ballymore as his Cheltenham target after winning the Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle in a good 145 timefigure.
