The preparation for the Scottish Grand National meeting at Ayr starts here with Timeform's in-depth guide, featuring all the key facts and figures.
Timeform's Ayr course guide
The Ayr course is a left-handed circuit of one and a half miles comprising nine fences. It has well-graduated turns and a steady downhill run to the home turn before a gentle rise to the finish. There is a run-in of approximately one furlong. When the going is firm the course is sharp, but conditions regularly get extremely gruelling in mid-winter, that in itself explaining why the chase course claims similar numbers of casualties to the likes of Cheltenham and Haydock.
Leading active jockeys at Ayr
Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 20 rides)
- Paddy Brennan 33.33% (7-21)
- Adrian Heskin 31.82% (7-22)
- Harry Skelton 22.45% (11-49)
- Brian Hughes 21.41% (70-327)
- Daryl Jacob 20.83% (5-24)
Other points to consider
- Brian Hughes is the most successful jockey at Ayr in the last five years with 70 winners – Derek Fox is next best with 22 winners – yielding a profit of 16.50 points at Betfair SP. Hughes has enjoyed 14 winners from 43 rides (32.56% strike rate) at Ayr when teaming up with Donald McCain. Those 14 winners have returned a profit of 10.67 points at Betfair SP, with Lough Derg Jewel yielding the biggest dividend when successful at 13/2 in 2017. The pair are set to team up with Barrichello in Saturday’s Scottish Champion Hurdle.
- Paddy Brennan has ridden seven winners from only 21 rides at Ayr in the last five years, yielding a strike rate of 33.33% and a profit of 11.37 points at Betfair SP. Six of those wins were achieved on horses trained by Fergal O’Brien, who could saddle Ask A Honey Bee in Saturday’s Scottish Grand National, a race Brennan won aboard Hello Bud in 2009.
Leading active trainers at Ayr
Sorted by strike rate in the last five years (minimum 20 runners)
- Dan Skelton 23.08% (12-52)
- Donald McCain 22.08% (17-77)
- Olly Murphy 21.43% (9-42)
- William Young Jr 21.21% (7-33)
- Gordon Elliott 20.75% (11-53)
Others points to consider
- Nicky Richards is the most successful trainer at Ayr in the last five years with 43 winners – Nick Alexander (39) and Lucinda Russell (32) head the opposition. Richards memorably won the Scottish Grand National in 2019 with Takingrisks, while the trainer has a particularly strong record when saddling runners in bumpers at Ayr with 12 winners from 33 runners (36.36% strike rate). Richards could saddle Gege Ville in the concluding bumper on Saturday after he made a winning debut over the same course and distance in November.
- Nick Alexander has been one of the most profitable trainers to follow at Ayr in the last five years. His 39 winners have returned a profit of 103.08 points at Betfair SP, with 14 of them obliging at double-figure odds. It will be three weeks on Saturday since Alexander completed a remarkable 2,193/1 five-timer at Ayr and one of those winners, Niceandeasy, could be back in action this weekend in the CPMS Novices' Champion Handicap Chase.
Running style
The tactical advantage front-runners have in any given race, both on the Flat and over jumps, should never be underestimated. For example, if you had backed every horse who recorded a Timeform EPF (Early Position Figure) of 1 in British steeplechases since the start of the 2016/17 season, you would be operating at a strike rate of 23.41% and celebrating a profit of over 4,800 points at Betfair SP.
By contrast, the statistics tell us that backing hold-up horses simply doesn’t pay in the long run. Horses who recorded an EPF of 4 (towards rear) in British steeplechases during the same period have a strike rate of 9.22%, while horses who recorded an EPF of 5 (in rear) have performed worse still with a strike rate of just 6.43%.
- Timeform EPFs range from 1 to 5 and help to explain where a horse was positioned during a race. An EPF of 1 is recorded by a horse who led and an EPF of 5 is recorded by a horse who was held up.
It’s worth pointing out that these figures can vary drastically from one course to the next. At one end of the spectrum there is the steeplechase track at Kempton Park, where front-runners have a strike rate of 31.28% since the start of the 2016/17 season, and at the other end there is the steeplechase track at Bangor-on-Dee, where front-runners have a strike rate of just 17.31% for the same period.
When looking at the overall data, Ayr appears to have far more in common with Bangor-on-Dee than it does Kempton Park. For context, front-runners have a strike rate of just 19.81% in all steeplechases run at Ayr since the start of the 2016/17 season, though even then they fared better than horses who recorded an EPF of 2 (16.16%), 3 (13.58%), 4 (8.90%) or 5 (7.86%).
By contrast, horses who recorded an EPF of 2 have performed best in races over hurdles at Ayr since the start of the 2016/17 season with a strike rate of 15.19%. Horses who recorded an EPF of 1 were not far behind with a strike rate of 14.43%, though, while horses who recorded an EPF of 3 (10.49%), 4 (7.68%) or 5 (6.38%) have again struggled by comparison.
Best performances at Ayr
Sorted by Timeform performance ratings in the last five years
- Allmankind (161) – 2021 Future Champion Novices’ Chase WON
- Vaniteux (157) – 2017 Scotty Brand Handicap Chase WON
- Ballyoptic (153) – 2018 Scottish Grand National Second
- Verdana Blue (152) – 2019 Scottish Champion Hurdle WON
- Cloudy Dream (151) – 2017 Future Champion Novices’ Chase WON
- Blue Flight (151) – 2019 Scottish Grand National Fourth
The Future Champion Novices’ Chase has been won by several high-class performers over the years and Allmankind was totally dominant when defying a Grade One penalty to win by 19 lengths in 2021. No horse has put up a better performance at Ayr in the last five years, while Cloudy Dream is another notable winner of the Future Champion Novices’ Chase during that period, when showing smart form to beat Theinval by two lengths in 2017.
Vaniteux and Verdana Blue are a couple of talented performers trained by Nicky Henderson to have won at Ayr in recent years. Vaniteux gave weight and a beating to some useful rivals when defying a BHA mark of 153 to win the Scotty Brand Handicap Chase in 2017, while the mare Verdana Blue also defied a lofty rating when winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle in 2019, quickening clear on the run-in to land the spoils by seven lengths from a BHA mark of 154.
Meanwhile, the best performances in the Scottish Grand National in the last five years have both come in defeat. Ballyoptic was beaten just a nose in the 2018 renewal when lining up from a BHA mark of 149 and Blue Flight ran to a similar level the following year when fourth (beaten four and a quarter lengths) from a BHA mark of 148.
Scottish Champion Hurdle trends
Since 2000 unless specified otherwise
- Absence – 17/21 winners of the Scottish Champion Hurdle were returning from an absence of 36 days or less. Ch’tibello (142 days in 2016) was successful after the longest absence, while Mister Morose (2000) and Genghis (2005) both won after an absence of just seven days. The average winner was returning after 36 days off.
- Age – 17/21 winners of the Scottish Champion Hurdle were aged seven or below. 3/21 winners were aged nine, but Mister Morose (aged 10 in 2000) is the only horse aged 10 or above to have won the race since Bird’s Nest in 1981.
- BHA mark – 16/21 winners of the Scottish Champion Hurdle were successful from a BHA mark of 144 or less. 10/21 winners were rated between 144 and 139 and 6/21 winners were rated 137 or less. Mister Morose (159 in 2000) was successful from the highest rating and Overturn (130 in 2010) was successful from the lowest.
- SP – 15/21 winners of the Scottish Champion Hurdle were sent off at single-figure odds. Mister Morose (5/4 in 2000) is the shortest-priced winner and Border Castle (40/1 in 2008) is the longest-priced winner. The average SP of the winner is 8.6/1.
Scottish Grand National trends
Since 2000 unless specified otherwise
- Absence – 14/21 winners of the Scottish Grand National were returning from an absence of 38 days or less. Al Co (104 days in 2014) was successful after the longest absence, while Joes Edge (2005) was successful just seven days after winning at Aintree. The average winner was returning after 35 days off.
- Age – 15/21 winners of the Scottish Grand National were aged between eight and 10. 3/21 winners were aged seven, but no horse aged six or below has won the race since Earth Summit (aged six in 1994).
- BHA mark – 14/21 winners of the Scottish Grand National were successful from a BHA mark of 140 or less. 7/21 winners were rated between 140 and 137 and 7/21 winners were rated 135 or less. Grey Abbey (148 in 2004) was successful from the highest rating and Hot Weld (124 in 2007) was successful from the lowest.
- SP – 15/21 winners of the Scottish Grand National were sent off at double-figure odds. Paris Pike (5/1 in 2000) is the shortest-priced winner and Iris de Balme (66/1 in 2008) is the longest-priced winner. The average SP of the winner is 19.1/1.
