Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Dave Massey

Recommended Bets: October 24

1pt win Cloth Cap in 3.50 Cheltenham at 8/1 (minimum 7/1)

1pt win Natural History in 4.10 Newbury at 9/1 (minimum 8/1)

1pt win Plantagenet in 5.00 Cheltenham at 7/1 (minimum 6/1)

0.5pts e.w Thorntoun Care in 5.20 Newbury at 18/1 (minimum 18/1)

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5.00 Cheltenham - Plantagenet To Prove King

Jen’s Boy looks the likely favourite for this, but there’s simply too many seconds on his card now and a change of headgear to something stronger didn’t have the desired effect at Hexham last time, finding little when push came to shove at the business end. This is a tougher race too, and he looks opposable, as does Call Me Vic, having his first run for Fergal O’Brien after winning four point-to-points in 2019 but he’s a 13yo that’s still a couple of pounds higher than his last win under Rules, so he’s not exactly a hidden one.

Plantagenet is treading much the same path as when second in the race last year, with a run early October to put him right for this and given how well he ran at Kelso, going down less than a length, he comes into this in good form. He’s only 1lb higher than last year when splitting subsequent winners in a race that worked out well as the season progressed; the sticking point with him can be his jumping as he does make the odd mistake, but an error at the second-last was his only blemish in this race last year, and that augurs well for his chances.

5.20 Newbury - Have a Care, My Good Man

An open looking handicap, but you can probably rule a few out on a lack of form at the trip, or on the ground, or both. The claims of Azor Ahai and Percy Prosecco are clear enough to see, but at a bigger price, Thorntoun Care has place claims at worst, and might find this falling his way if the likes of Harmonise and Ingenuity go too quickly early on.

You know what you’re getting with Thorntoun Care at the age of nine, there are no secrets with him but his form at 12f+ with cut in the ground reads absolutely fine against some of these, and he’s only been getting warmed up at the finish of the 10f he’s raced at on his last two starts.

He’s not quite the force of old, but his mark reflects that, and Amy Collier knows him well, having won three times on him already. With extra places likely to be on offer here, he’s more than capable of hitting the frame and rewarding each-way backers. You can get 25s with bet365, but we'd rather take the four places on offer elsewhere.

3.50 Cheltenham - Cap Can Come Out On Top

Plenty of your old favourites line up for this staying handicap chase, and the form of the majority of them is there for all to see. Manofthemountain is the exception to that, having only had the five chase starts, but he’s also been declared for Wincanton on Sunday (where he’d face an arguably easier task), so his participation is in some doubt. His lack of Cheltenham form makes him less appealing here, too.

Veterans chases surely beckon for the likes of Perfect Candidate and Cogry this season (the former is declared for one on Sunday at Aintree), where they’ll arguably hold better chances, and as much as Frodon is a C&D winner, all of his best efforts have come at the intermediate trip here. West Approach is often well fancied in these events but he’s been beaten on 17 of his 18 Cheltenham starts, and again, that makes his case far less appealing.

Cloth Cap might be the one to be with. He already has proven form in staying events, having finished third in a Scottish National, and might have scope to improve further. Last year, he seemed to merely hold station rather than improve, but all of his runs came on soft ground, whereas his best form has come on quicker. With little rain forecast at Cheltenham, the ground should be in his favour, and the fact he’s 2lb out of the handicap is of little concern.

History Lesson: 4.10 Newbury - Natural History

Andrew Balding has won this race three times in recent years, and it’s interesting that two of those winners were unproven in pattern company, but were hardened handicappers who coped well with testing ground.

He has two in this race, and while the market will focus on the disappointing Alounak, who was last of 6 on heavy ground last time at Windsor, it’s ignoring the claims of mudlark Natural History, who produced a career-best effort to land a heavy-ground handicap at Goodwood last time.

Whilst the form book says that form isn’t good enough, history suggests different, and the ability to cope with heavy conditions here is much more important than back-class on better ground.

Posted at 1800 BST on 23/10/20

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