Saturday Stats: Angel delight? | Racing stats for Sprint Cup and Kempton
It’s a tale of two horses returning from lay-offs this weekend; Harry Angel after a few months and Enable following a break of almost a year. We look at the relevant stats…
32Red SPRINT CUP, 4.15 Haydock
Harry Angel dominates the betting at 5/4 for the 32Red Sprint Cup at Haydock on Saturday and offers a dilemma for punters.
He’s the best horse in the race, but was injured following an incident in the stalls at Royal Ascot last time meaning he comes into this off a 77-day break.
HARRY ANGEL (77 day break)
- Clive Cox with favourites running off a 60-90 day break
5 from 19 at 26.32% - Clive Cox with favourites running off a 50-90 day break
10 from 37 at 27.03% (includes Harry Angel in this race last year off 56 day break)
As you can see, Cox has a healthy strike-rate with horses returning off a two to three month break when they are the most fancied or joint most fancied horse in the betting.
A strike-rate of around 27 per cent with this type of horse is almost double his overall strike-rate for the last five years which comes in at 14 per cent.
He isn’t the only horse coming into the race fresh, though. Tasleet, second to him last year by four lengths, has only raced the once this year and comes into the race on the back of a 105-day absence.
TASLEET (105 day break)
- William Haggas with horses running off a 100-150 day break
27 from 112 at 24.11 % - William Haggas with horses running off a 100-400 day break
188 from 828 at 22.71 % - Danny Tudhope riding for William Haggas
18 from 80 at 23 %
Again, his trainer William Haggas returns good figures when assessing his horses coming off similar breaks.
However, these numbers are about what you’d expect from Haggas given his overall strike-rate for the last five years stands at 23 per cent.
Perhaps a more encouraging figure for Tasleet backers is the 23 per cent strike-rate his jockey Daniel Tudhope has when riding for Haggas.
Finally, Gustav Klimt is a fascinating contender for Saturday’s Group One highlight.
Campaigned mainly at seven furlongs and a mile, the son of Galileo drops back to six furlongs for the first time since his debut and Aidan O’Brien is adept, as you would expect, at dropping the right horses back in trip.
GUSTAV KLIMT (Drops back to six furlongs from seven)
- Aidan O’Brien with horses dropping back to six furlongs from seven furlongs
26 from 104 at 25 % (P/L to SP +£64) - (In Group 1s…)
5 from 20 at 25 % (P/L to SP +£50) - Ryan Moore’s Haydock strike-rate
37 from 218 at 17 % - Ryan Moore’s Haydock strike-rate on 3YOs
23 from 97 at 24 %
Perhaps the most surprising aspect there is the +£64 profit to £1 level stakes when O’Brien drops a horse back from seven furlongs to six, but the 25 per cent strike-rate is healthy nonetheless.
As for Ryan Moore, his Haydock strike-rate improves significantly from 17 per cent to 24 per cent when just taking into account his rides on three-year-olds at the Merseyside venue.
188Bet SEPTEMBER STAKES, 2.05 Kempton
Meanwhile, over at Kempton we have a real treat with Enable returning against Crystal Ocean in the Group 3 September Stakes.
She hasn’t been seen since winning last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe but her trainer John Gosden knows what he’s doing when it comes to preparing fancied horses off the back of a 300+ day lay-off…
ENABLE (342-day break)
- John Gosden with horses running off a 300-500 day break
35 from 158 at 22.15% - John Gosden with horses running off a 300-500 day break that are favourites…
18 from 43 at 41.86 %
That strike-rate is almost doubled when taking into account market leaders which may encourage punters that are considering adding the star Nathaniel filly to their international football acca this weekend.
Recommended Bets
Given Clive Cox and John Gosden have plenty of previous when it comes to returning fancied horses off similar lay-offs the Harry Angel-Enable double makes plenty of appeal.
For those that fancy something at an each-way price, it could be worth chancing that Gustav Klimt is one of those many horses from the Aidan O’Brien yard that thrive for dropping a furlong in trip.
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