Saturday Racing Tips: Best Value Bets for ITV Racing at Sandown and Newmarket on July 4

Horse Racing

Sat July 04, 2026 · 2M ago

Andrew McLaren is sitting in for Matt Brocklebank this week and he has three bets across the Saturday ITV Racing action at Sandown and Newmarket.

Value Bet Tips: Saturday, July 4

1pt e.w. win Excellent Believe in 14:25 Sandown at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)

1pt win Estissa in 15:00 Sandown at 9/1 (General)

1pt e.w. Burdett Road in 15:15 Newmarket at 40/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

The Coral-Eclipse takes centre stage at Sandown Park this weekend and it's hard to look beyond the favourite, Constitution River, as Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore bid for a fourth consecutive success in the race.

He's 6lb clear on Timeform ratings, and the race could set up perfectly for him from stall three with stablemates Hawk Mountain and Flushing Meadows likely to ensure a truly-run contest. He simply looks the most likely winner.

The Coral Challenge Handicap earlier on the card is a much more competitive affair, however, and there are reasons to believe Jack Channon’s EXCELLENT BELIEVE can run well at a big price.

You have to forgive a poor run at Royal Ascot last time where he finished 27th of 28 runners, but that performance was too bad to be true judged on his previous form, and I’m happy to just put that down as a rare off day as prior to Ascot, he'd built a notably consistent profile in some strong races.

Last September he finished a two-length second to Zeus Olympios, who has acquitted himself well in Group 1 company this season, while on his reappearance he was a close third behind the classy Docklands, with Qirat - who advertised the strength of that form by landing last weekend's Group 3 Criterion Stakes at York - finishing behind him.

He perhaps lacks the change of gear that's often needed to win races at this sort of level, but he travels well, finds plenty for pressure, and a strongly-run mile in a big-field handicap looks tailor-made for him.

He’s been dropped 3 lb for that Ascot effort leaving him on a mark of 103, and while he may be vulnerable to some less exposed rivals, odds of 40/1 underestimate his ability and he can give us a good run for our money under James Doyle.

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In the Coral Distaff I'm happy to take on the favourite, Pacific Mission. She was placed at the highest-level as a juvenile when chasing home Balantina at the Breeders' Cup, but I'm not convinced that was the strongest Grade 1 after Precise was a late withdrawal, and she's yet to run to that level in either start this season.

The one I want to be with is the progressive ESTISSA, who is having her first run on the turf after winning two of her four starts on the all-weather for James Fanshawe. I loved the way she did it on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton last time, doing well to overcome both a pace bias and a fair bit of trouble in running before forcing her way through a gap and quickening well to lead near the line.

This is obviously a significant jump in class after winning a Class 4 handicap, but it feels a notable vote of confidence that connections are prepared to pitch her straight into Listed company despite still appearing to have a very workable handicap mark of 86.

She's certainly bred to be good - by Dubawi and the first foal from Audarya, who Fanshawe trained to win a couple of Group 1s - and it's entirely possible that switching to turf unlocks the chunk of improvement needed to compete at this level.

There's not a lot of pace on paper and stall 1 could prove tricky with horses coming across her in the early stages, but we couldn't ask for a better pilot to navigate a clear path through than Oisin Murphy, who rode her to victory in March.

Timeform's view on the Coral-Eclipse

Newmarket plays host to this year's relocated Old Newton Cup, where Klassleader is an understandable favourite after his impressive York success.

That win guaranteed him a place in the Ebor, and you have to think that race will be his main target. With that in mind, he could be venerable, for all he looked a pattern level performer in the making last time.

At much bigger prices, BURDETT ROAD is capable of outrunning his odds if, like with Excellent Believe, you're prepared to forgive a disappointing run at Royal Ascot.

He wasn’t at his best during a spell in the Middle East earlier this year, but he wasn't disgraced out there either, particularly as he was largely asked to tackle trips further than he wants - the only time he ran over this distance during his time in Dubai he finished third to nine-time Group 1 winner Rebel's Romance - and as a result his mark has dropped to 103 having started the year rated 109.

That gives him a chance if he can get back to his best, and James Owen's stable remains in excellent form after a fruitful Royal Ascot where they landed the Royal Hunt Cup (at 28/1), had the runner-up in the Wolferton (12/1), third in the Queen's Vase (40/1) and third and fourth in the Wokingham (11/1 and 28/1).

Burdett Road’s run at Royal Ascot run came after an 83-day break following his Middle East campaign and he looked a bit rusty.

He was never able to get into it after missing the break, which is significant because his best performances on the Flat and over hurdles have come when ridden very prominently, and I'd be confident we'll see a much better showing when he breaks on terms and is ridden up with the pace, that style well suited to the July Course at Newmarket where prominent racers have a good record over middle distances.

Preview posted at 15:20BST on 03/07/2026

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