Saturday racing analysis: Phil Turner on Ascot and Haydock

By Phil Turner

Horse Racing

Mon November 24, 2025 · 4w ago

Timeform's Phil Turner on the Betfair Chase through the years, Grey Dawning's win and a very significant performance at Ascot.

“If you build it, they will come” was the mantra for Kevin Costner’s character in the sports fantasy film Field of Dreams, which followed the fortunes of a downtrodden farmer who sought redemption by repurposing one of his cornfields as a baseball diamond.

In racing circles, it used to be case that “if you stump up enough cash, they will come”. For example, take the inaugural edition of the Royal Doulton Handicap Hurdle (now Swinton) at Haydock on May 1st 1978. Many observers feared the new race would be a damp squib due to its position in the calendar, with most top hurdlers having normally finished their campaign by mid-April and also likely to swerve the fast ground which regularly prevailed at that time of year in pre-watering days.

Instead, despite being run on ground officially described as firm, the bumper prize money on offer (by far the most valuable handicap hurdle staged on British soil up until then) attracted a stellar field of 20, which included the first four from that season’s Champion Hurdle, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon, Night Nurse and Beacon Light plus another hurdling luminary from that era Bird’s Nest. (The well-bred Royal Gaye exploited a low weight to win, though Monksfield and Night Nurse put up fine weight-carrying performances in filling the places).

The Greatest Handicap Hurdle Ever Run.The 1978 Royal Doulton at Haydock.

Haydock’s current showpiece race, the Betfair Chase, also started with a bang back in 2005. The new Grade 1 event was bolstered by the then Betfair Million bonus, with £1million on offer to the connections of any horse who won the Betfair Chase, the King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup within the same season. That lucrative carrot attracted a couple of notable Irish raiders in reigning Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Kicking King and multiple Grade 1 winner Beef Or Salmon, though both had to settle for minor honours behind the mercurial Kingscliff (who never won again under Rules!).

Such largesse from the sponsors seemingly isn’t the attraction it once was for Irish-based connections, though. First prize for the Betfair Chase is over £34,000 more than that for Sunday's John Durkan Memorial Chase, yet Willie Mullins has elected to shun Haydock and instead saddle no less than seven runners (for six different owners) in the Punchestown race – even though the longer trip at Haydock appeals as more suitable for several of that septet.

The all-conquering Mullins, of course, hardly needs any advice when it comes to placing his horses and is presumably reluctant to travel horses over the Irish Sea at this stage of the season – he’s averaged just six runners per season on British soil during the months of October and November combined over the past two decades. Trips to Haydock have been even rarer whatever the month and Capodanno (pulled up in 2024) remains the yard’s only runner in the 20-year history of the Betfair Chase.

All of this has contributed to a dip in quality for the Betfair Chase in recent years. Irish raider A Plus Tard (174 in 2021) is the only winner from its last nine renewals to post a Timeform rating of 170 or above.

By contrast, nine of the race’s first 12 winners breached the 170 barrier – multiple winners Kauto Star and Cue Card both managed it three times. Whether the reintroduction of a £1million triple crown prize would entice any more high-profile Irish raiders to Haydock than currently do is a moot point, even though Kauto Star landed the bonus in 2006/7 and Cue Card came close to doing the same in 2015/16.

Given the balance of power is firmly on that side of the Irish Sea at present, more Irish involvement would inject some much-needed quality into Britain’s first Grade 1 race of the season.

As Tornado Flyer proved in the 2021 King George VI Chase, Mullins is capable of landing our biggest prizes with horses some way down the Closutton pecking order, which was underlined by the fact Asterion Forlonge would have completed a one-two for the yard that day but for falling at the last.

With that in mind, it’s worth noting that three of Mullins intended John Durkan runners currently have a higher Timeform rating than today’s Betfair Chase winner Grey Dawning (c166), whilst a further two of them are rated the same as him.

One man more than happy for Mullins to concentrate on home soil this autumn is Dan Skelton, who’s been busy mopping up most of the valuable weekend prizes on offer in Britain, with pride of place going to Grey Dawning’s lucrative win on Saturday.

It's Grey Dawning's year in the Betfair Chase

As alluded to earlier, it wasn’t a strong renewal of the Betfair Chase, but Grey Dawning clearly had a fair bit more in hand than his two-and-three-quarter-length winning margin as he comprehensively reversed placings with dual previous winner Royale Pagaille (c161) from twelve months ago. He’s a top-class performer with a likeable way of going about things, but as things stand his form still falls a bit short of the pick from the Irish contingent he’s likely to meet next March.

Ben Pauling was out of luck with his Betfair Chase runner Handstands (c153), who faded to be last of the four finishers, but he’d enjoyed a happier time of things earlier on the Haydock card when The Jukebox Man (c157p) maintained his 100% record over fences with an impressive comeback from 11 months off.

Clearly a horse who’s yet to lose in this sphere must be open to further improvement but, in truth, the bare form of today’s win isn’t anything to get carried away with yet – particularly as Grand National hopeful Iroko (c156+) seemed to be ridden with an eye on the future in filling the runner-up spot for the second year running.

By contrast, the emphatic win by Jango Baie (c167p) in the 1965 Chase at Ascot was every bit as good as it looked visually and was the performance of the day. Although dual previous winner Pic d’Orhy (c159) and Il Est Francais fluffed their lines, it still appeals as very strong form and was backed up by the stopwatch too.

Indeed, the manner in which Jango Baie pulled nine lengths clear of old rival Gidleigh Park (c157+) suggests a step-up to three miles will pose no problems for him and puts him firmly into the picture for the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, with or without Irish-trained runners…..

Jango Baie powers to victory at Ascot

TOP BRITISH-TRAINED CHASERS BY TIMEFORM RATING 2025/26

JONBON – 170

JANGO BAIE – 167p

GREY DAWNING – 166

L’EAU DU SUD – 165+

PROTEKTORAT – 165

DJELO – 164

ROYALE PAGAILLE – 161

PIC D’ORHY – 159

THE JUKEBOX MAN – 157p

GIDLEIGH PARK – 157+

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